ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NotSparta]

Convection seems to be waning over the center

[storminabox]

Just because this is weakening now, doesn’t mean it won’t strengthen again once it reaches more favorable conditions.

[chris_fit]

Moving WWNW I would venture to guess....

[Kazmit]

Officially down to 75kts now, but it appears even weaker just from looking at it.

[plasticup]

Officially down to 75kts now, but it appears even weaker just from looking at it.

So impressive how it just fell apart. It has good conditions ahead but with its structure so shredded it may not be able to take advantage of that.

[Bocadude85]

Moving WWNW I would venture to guess....

Yea WWNW is about right, at 11am she was at 24.6N 48.6W and the 18z position is 24.8N 49.2W so .2N and .6W

[Kazmit]

Officially down to 75kts now, but it appears even weaker just from looking at it.

So impressive how it just fell apart. It has good conditions ahead but with its structure so shredded it may not be able to take advantage of that.

More like unimpressive . It may take a little longer to pick up steam again once it reaches those conditions but I'm still pretty confident it will regain major status.

[1900hurricane]

Moving WWNW I would venture to guess....

That loop has one of the most prominent outflow boundaries I've ever seen emitted from the core of a tropical cyclone.

[BYG Jacob]

Moving WWNW I would venture to guess....

That loop has one of the most prominent outflow boundaries I've ever seen emitted from the core of a tropical cyclone.

Yup, I can't think of a storm with better poleward outflow

[Bocadude85]

What are the chances that Florence’s LLC opens up? I’m sure the odds are slim but I do have to wonder if it’s a possibility.

[gatorcane]

Florence is looking rough. Might mean more west and even losing some latitude with some more west shifts with the models. But don’t be fooled. Conditions looks great down the road. Looks a little worrisome for somebody on the East Coast.

[Hammy]

What are the chances that Florence’s LLC opens up? I’m sure the odds are slim but I do have to wonder if it’s a possibility.

I'd say low chances personally, it would've been more likely if Florence was moving faster but it looks like the closed portion extends a good way south.

[Bocadude85]

What are the chances that Florence’s LLC opens up? I’m sure the odds are slim but I do have to wonder if it’s a possibility.

I'd say low chances personally, it would've been more likely if Florence was moving faster but it looks like the closed portion extends a good way south.

I agree, some new convection is blossoming right over the LLC, that should be enough to sustain her until conditions improve.

[Blown Away]

Florence is looking rough. Might mean more west and even losing some latitude with some more west shifts with the models. But don’t be fooled. Conditions looks great down the road. Looks a little worrisome for somebody on the East Coast.

I think this confirms Flo is making the W turn a bit early...

[tolakram]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Appears to be maintaining intensity, possibly expanding the CDO.

[Bocadude85]

Florence is looking rough. Might mean more west and even losing some latitude with some more west shifts with the models. But don’t be fooled. Conditions looks great down the road. Looks a little worrisome for somebody on the East Coast.

I think this confirms Flo is making the W turn a bit early...

It does appear Florence has begun her westward turn, I’m not sure the earlier turn will really make much of a difference in the grand scheme of things, she would probably need a prolonged west to wsw motion to really change the final outcome.

[galaxy401]

NHC forecasts Florence to regain major hurricane status in a few days. The track has most of the cone south of Bermuda.

[Blown Away]

Florence is looking rough. Might mean more west and even losing some latitude with some more west shifts with the models. But don’t be fooled. Conditions looks great down the road. Looks a little worrisome for somebody on the East Coast.

https://i.imgur.com/HfDlfFf.jpg

I think this confirms Flo is making the W turn a bit early...

It does appear Florence has begun her westward turn, I’m not sure the earlier turn will really make much of a difference in the grand scheme of things, she would probably need a prolonged west to wsw motion to really change the final outcome.

If your final outcome is limited to 3-4 days agree, beyond that up in air IMO.

[BYG Jacob]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Appears to be maintaining intensity, possibly expanding the CDO.

Yeah, with poleward outflow like that, its gonna take more to kill off Florence.

[emeraldislenc]

I will start paying closer attention to Florence now. The next few days will be interesting for certain.it looks like a more westerly track.