ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[plasticup]

How long until the shear is supposed to drop?

36 hours per the 11am NHC discussion.

[pgoss11]

How long until the shear is supposed to drop?

36 hours per the 11am NHC discussion.

I wonder if Florence can handle another 36 hours of shear? There's no mention in the newest advisory about the potential of Florence totally decaying to the point of no return but the environment she's in right now is very brutal.

[Bocadude85]

How long until the shear is supposed to drop?

36 hours per the 11am NHC discussion.

I wonder if Florence can handle another 36 hours of shear? There's no mention in the newest advisory about the potential of Florence totally decaying to the point of no return but the environment she's in right now is very brutal.

I’m sure I’ll get blasted for even mentioning Andrew but the situation is somewhat similar...just farther north and east. Andrew was sheared to the brink of death and then steered to the west by a building ridge. Just food for thought really..I am by no means suggesting Florence will be another Andrew.

[AxaltaRacing24]

36 hours per the 11am NHC discussion.

I wonder if Florence can handle another 36 hours of shear? There's no mention in the newest advisory about the potential of Florence totally decaying to the point of no return but the environment she's in right now is very brutal.

I’m sure I’ll get blasted for even mentioning Andrew but the situation is somewhat similar...just farther north and east. Andrew was sheared to the brink of death and then steered to the west by a building ridge. Just food for thought really..I am by no means suggesting Florence will be another Andrew.

Andrew almost lost all convection multiple times, and looked pitiful.

[Blown Away]

I see shear kicking Flo's butt, it almost looks like the low level clouds/LLC has begun an almost due West movement and the higher clouds getting blown off to the NE?

Thoughts?

[HurricaneEnzo]

36 hours per the 11am NHC discussion.

I wonder if Florence can handle another 36 hours of shear? There's no mention in the newest advisory about the potential of Florence totally decaying to the point of no return but the environment she's in right now is very brutal.

I’m sure I’ll get blasted for even mentioning Andrew but the situation is somewhat similar...just farther north and east. Andrew was sheared to the brink of death and then steered to the west by a building ridge. Just food for thought really..I am by no means suggesting Florence will be another Andrew.

Not gonna like the same thing crossed my mind when someone posted an Image of a projected path from the UKMET in the model thread. Hard turn west towards southern Florida strengthening along the way after it battled shear and weakened. Very similar to the way Andrew played out. Obviously a lot to be decided but we should never let our guard down. History has a way of repeating itself. Anybody on the east coast needs to stay vigilant.

[plasticup]

I wonder if Florence can handle another 36 hours of shear? There's no mention in the newest advisory about the potential of Florence totally decaying to the point of no return but the environment she's in right now is very brutal.

I’m sure I’ll get blasted for even mentioning Andrew but the situation is somewhat similar...just farther north and east. Andrew was sheared to the brink of death and then steered to the west by a building ridge. Just food for thought really..I am by no means suggesting Florence will be another Andrew.

Not gonna like the same thing crossed my mind when someone posted an Image of a projected path from the UKMET. Hard turn west towards southern Florida strengthening along the way after it battled shear and weakened. Very similar to the way Andrew played out. Obviously a lot to be decided but we should never let our guard down. History has a way of repeating itself. Anybody on the east coast needs to stay vigilant.

UKMET is waaaaaaay out of alignment with the other models, has consistently failed to verify, and for ages has seen a westward motion that doesn't exist.

You need to stop focusing on the one outlier and see the consensus for what it is: at least 30 degrees N, then recurve outside/over/inside Bermuda, with a slight chance of a glancing blow to OBX (or higher) as it moves poleward.

[HurricaneEnzo]

I’m sure I’ll get blasted for even mentioning Andrew but the situation is somewhat similar...just farther north and east. Andrew was sheared to the brink of death and then steered to the west by a building ridge. Just food for thought really..I am by no means suggesting Florence will be another Andrew.

Not gonna like the same thing crossed my mind when someone posted an Image of a projected path from the UKMET. Hard turn west towards southern Florida strengthening along the way after it battled shear and weakened. Very similar to the way Andrew played out. Obviously a lot to be decided but we should never let our guard down. History has a way of repeating itself. Anybody on the east coast needs to stay vigilant.

UKMET is waaaaaaay out of alignment with the other models, has consistently failed to verify, and for ages has seen a westward motion that doesn't exist.

You need to stop focusing on the one outlier and see the consensus for what it is: at least 30 degrees N, then recurve outside/over/inside Bermuda, with a slight chance of a glancing blow to OBX (or higher) as it moves poleward.

What did I say? I said obviously there is a lot still to be decided still but stay vigilant. That run has shades of Andrew written on it. Did I say this is what will happen? NO. Reading comprehension please.

[txwatcher91]

I’m sure I’ll get blasted for even mentioning Andrew but the situation is somewhat similar...just farther north and east. Andrew was sheared to the brink of death and then steered to the west by a building ridge. Just food for thought really..I am by no means suggesting Florence will be another Andrew.

Not gonna like the same thing crossed my mind when someone posted an Image of a projected path from the UKMET. Hard turn west towards southern Florida strengthening along the way after it battled shear and weakened. Very similar to the way Andrew played out. Obviously a lot to be decided but we should never let our guard down. History has a way of repeating itself. Anybody on the east coast needs to stay vigilant.

UKMET is waaaaaaay out of alignment with the other models, has consistently failed to verify, and for ages has seen a westward motion that doesn't exist.

You need to stop focusing on the one outlier and see the consensus for what it is: at least 30 degrees N, then recurve outside/over/inside Bermuda, with a slight chance of a glancing blow to OBX (or higher) as it moves poleward.

Past performance of a model isn't indicative of how well it will perform in the future. Based on the trends we are seeing right now with a weaker storm a track further to the west is increasing. The 00z Euro and CMC make landfall, UK would be a threat to the East Coast somewhere, and GFS is the only main model showing the Bermuda/recurve scenario. With the new GFS run shifting south and the weakening we are currently observing I think it's clear anyone on the East Coast needs to watch this carefully as the landfall chances are going up IMO.

[drewschmaltz]

I see shear kicking Flo's butt, it almost looks like the low level clouds/LLC has begun an almost due West movement and the higher clouds getting blown off to the NE?

Thoughts?

I like to drag the window almost off my screen so I can only see the latitude numbers scrolling. The last several frames, she lost a little northern motion but seemed to also gain it back. I'd say it's still pretty close to NE.

EDIT: WHOOPS FORGOT THE LINK

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

[Bocadude85]

Florence’s sat presentation continues to deteriorate, there is no way she is currently a 90kt hurricane.

[1900hurricane]

The current SATCON estimate is about 80 kt, which looks alright to me.

[tolakram]

SLIDER view. I love how you can see under the higher clouds at this angle.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=15686&y=5719&z=5&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Ken711]

The current SATCON estimate is about 80 kt, which looks alright to me.

Is this degrading going to affect the track or I'm assuming the models have calculated the intensity in.

[Aric Dunn]

COD floater is up. 1 min images.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

the southern portion of the center is exposed now. Also, the shear looks like it is changing to a westerly direction.

if it becomes fully exposed an extended west or even sw motion is quite possible.

[wx98]

The current SATCON estimate is about 80 kt, which looks alright to me.

Is this degrading going to affect the track or I'm assuming the models have calculated the intensity in.

Opinion seems to be in favor of a more westward track as it weakens, and it seems to already be making that turn to the west.

[Hurricaneman]

It’s moving 285 to 290 right now looking at satellite

[northjaxpro]

Florence’s sat presentation continues to deteriorate, there is no way she is currently a 90kt hurricane.

Looking at the current imagery, Florence may barely be at minimal hurricane strength, if that currently.. She has rapidly weakened from the shear since late last night.

[Kazmit]

We've had a lot of small storms this year that change intensity really quickly. One second they're powerful hurricanes, and then the next they're naked swirls.

[Aric Dunn]

FYI.. the center is completely exposed now. rapid weakening down to a TS is quite possible now. Also appears to have made the turn to the west.