Did Anyone Notice....

[wxman57]

Current NHC Outlook:

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY WELL
ORGANIZED...<b>VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS.</b> CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

Now, the Mindy discussion:

<b>THE ADVISORY POSITION IS BASED ON THE
LOCATION OF A VERY SMALL LOW-CLOUD SWIRL...DISPLACED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY. </b>

So, did you notice that the same reason the NHC uses to KEEP Mindy a depression is exactly the same reason that they use NOT to upgrade the disturbance near 10N/37W?

That's consistency for you.... NOT!

[ncweatherwizard]

You're right...that pattern of thinking has been around all year, which irritates me quite a bit. I've had that bone to pick with them all year, in otherwise decent forecasts. Anyhow, I tend to simply disregard them when it comes to upgrading or downgrading systems.

[Dave C]

That is incredible! Mindy is basically tied into a front now while the unnamed system has a nice appearence, probably a tropical storm if the convection was over the center.

[Lowpressure]

Need to be more consistency in the process. I am not real sure Mindy was ever a TS, recon found qualifying winds and pressure, but not real sure the other parameters were ever met. CV looks good and should be a depression.

[Stormsfury]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=16885

Just like I said the other night, the further east the system is, the longer they can wait to upgrade it. (Some of it is for good reason with systems close to coastal regions to at least alert the public and the short fused warnings). I'm not bashing the NHC by any means, but the consistency criteria for an upgrade has been ... a little less than what we would expect ...

SF

[Thunder44]

Yep, I don't believe it's just about it being farther away from land though. What you are seing here is not an opinion being displayed here. There is an orchestrated effort here by the NHC to be right on forecast. Two things I believe is going on here:

1. To make this "wave" look like it's developing slowly, just as stated in previous TWO's.

2. They had little confidence this morning in where this system is going go in five days, so they wait for more computer model runs and data to come in, so they come up with a better forecast track, then they would have if they classify it earlier.

I respect the NHC alot, but you don't have to be a met to see, what's going on here.

[JCT777]

Mindy should not be a depression, but the CV disturbance probably should be.

[Stormsfury]

Yep, I don't believe it's just about it being farther away from land though. What you are seing here is not an opinion being displayed here. There is an orchestrated effort here by the NHC to be right on forecast. Two things I believe is going on here:

1. To make this "wave" look like it's developing slowly, just as stated in previous TWO's.

2. They had little confidence this morning in where this system is going go in five days, so they wait for more computer model runs and data to come in, so they come up with a better forecast track, then they would have if they classify it earlier.

I respect the NHC alot, but you don't have to be a met to see, what's going on here.

The issue is the inconsistency with systems being upgraded and downgraded (such as Mindy and the current invest). Had Mindy been where 93L is now, there never would have been the classification in the first place until absolute certainty. Due to the fact that Mindy was very close to land masses and it looked like there was potential for it to develop, the classification to a tropical depression was made (with short-fused watches and warnings). I'm not blaming NHC - more people will react to the words Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm than hearing a tropical wave. Take Grace for example. Take Tropical Depression #2 for example. Or Tropical Depression #9. Then look at Isabel in its inception. Much stronger than originally thought in its inception. And Tropical Depression #14. QuikScat found uncontamined winds of tropical storm force winds for almost a day before it was even classified as a depression. There has been some inconsistencies with the classifications.

The above post from wxman57 shows this inconsistency perfectly.

Current NHC Outlook:

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY WELL
ORGANIZED...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

Now, the Mindy discussion:

THE ADVISORY POSITION IS BASED ON THE
LOCATION OF A VERY SMALL LOW-CLOUD SWIRL...DISPLACED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

The discussions look one and the same.

Don't get me wrong though, the NHC has done an excellent job with our storms and in particular Isabel and Fabian, as well as Claudette. But there's some concerns as well as with the current states of Mindy and Invest 93L (incidentally looks better than Mindy).

Grace was a large rainmaker, but was it ever really a tropical storm? Again close proximity to landmasses and a couple of reports led to the upgrade.

Did tropical depression #9 really have a closed circ.? One ship report of a west wind got this system upgraded.

I'm sure the preliminary reports and best track analysis will enlighten us a ton after the season is over, but there are a lot of questions for the time being. Otherwise, in regards to the NHC, they've done exactly as they should and with Fabian and Isabel, they were excellent.

SF

[Thunder44]

Yeah, I do believe they shouldn't waste time in classfiying these when they could affect land sooner. They were good with Isabel and Fabain too but those all started out in the far Atlantic were no threat to land for more than five days. If you are to have the rule to classify these systems more when they are closer to land, then why bother to do so or issue forecasts when they are far out in the Atlantic in the first place?

Mindy is going out to sea and will soon meet her demise. Why keep her as a tropcial cylcone and not classify a new system that may pose more of threat now, even if it's more than five days away. It wouldn't hurt for people to have even more time to be prepared. Especially if it becomes a major hurricane which it would have more time to do before it hit the islands or the US.

[stormchazer]

I think NHCs handling of storms has no room for the concern of, or lack of danger to landmasses as a deciding factor for clasifying systems. There is a pretty strick guideline for classifying systems so they should stick to it. The forecast they make are not only about protecting life and property though, that is the most important factor, but also will be used as a tool for studying storms once the season is over. I would argue that it is the study of past storms and there tracks that is given forecaster a better understanding of just how weather systems effect each other and thus made hurricane forecasting more accurate.

It would bother me to think politics have become part of forecasting at the NHC.