ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[SFLcane]

UkMET only one showing this southerly track it should come around. Still a huge spread with the European ensembles lots of time for that to change

[BobHarlem]

UkMET only one showing this southerly track it should come around

This made me laugh, this was almost the exact quote used in the Irma thread last year. "UKMET is the only one showing such a southerly route through northern Cuba and Naples." --

Note it doesn't mean I think the UKMET is right, but it is definitely interesting and its been fairly consistent.

Although with both Irma and Matthew the UKMET led the pack, and sort of drug the Euro/GFS toward it, if it followed that pattern it's more of a threat to Northeast Florida or GA if you split the difference between the UKMET and ECMWF. Classic "model war" discussion setup incoming.

[chris_fit]

UKMET has also been way left biased with Florence so far. It is currently way north of where UKMET was showing it to be just a few runs ago. Check the discussion thread.

[Blown Away]

00z ECMWF/EURO


06z GFS

Scary runs from Euro/GFS, thankfully still long range with regards to potential CONUS impacts...

First time the GFS/Euro blocked from recurve... GFS pushes Flo N into Canada longterm...

[Shell Mound]

Two camps are evident on the 06Z GEFS ensembles by day five (ninety-six hours): a northern camp that feels the initial weakness and heads OTS, and a southern camp that turns W:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like a massive cold-core system out in the Northern Atlantic around ~40N and 55W might also contribute to the strength of the ridge when compared to the 12z ECMWF? This feature wasn't there during the last run, at least. Splits off from the trough that's going to steer Florence northwards.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

All I know is that the Euro has been horribly left biased this season so far, I will believe it that it wold be an east coast threat when it shows Florence making it all the way to the MS River.

Well, the GFS has made the same big shift as well, brushing the eastern seaboard as a sub-900 mb hurricane. They may be too bullish, but that shows that the trends aren't great at all.

[NDG]

TVCN model through day 7, the official track is now to the right of it in the short term, they have no option but to start pointing the track towards Bermuda, for now.

[tolakram]

These runs are really reminiscent of those doomsday Irma runs... at about the exact same time of year.

Irma was way farther south. I'm getting nervous but still liking the recurve odds.

History is no guarantee of this years behavior, but it does give you an idea of how very rare a US hit would be.

source: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

I've put the lat lon into units you can paste into that page.

Current Position 21.4, -44.8


48H NHC position 24.9, -51.5


120H NHC position 28.7, -58.2


For comparisons sake, since the knee jerk reaction is to always mention IKE, here is a plot from Ike's northern most point. This gets only 2 storms from 1901 and 1906, with 1906 being the only one that formed near Cape Verde. 1906 hit South Carolina.



If Florence goes further south than forecast then the odds of a US hit continue to rise, from an historical perspective anyway.

[PSUHiker31]

These overnight model runs are extremely disconcerting. Obviously the GFS is overdoing the pressure on the 6Z, but it should be somewhat alarming that even it has shifted into the westward camp.

The timing of all of the pieces with respect to Florence are going to be critical whether it recurves or is a threat... Seems as if there is a fine line between the two that currently favors a threat. The UKMET's consistency should also be noted, and I would feel more comfortable with a recurve projection if all three models shifted that way for multiple runs.

[tolakram]

Unnamed 1933 is an interesting storm to look at. I simply searched for a storm that passed south of Bermuda and while most miss the US the 1933 does not, plus it's a Cape Verde storm. It's just a bit too far south to be included in my previous history posts. This shows the limitations of using historical tracks to determine the "odds" of a storm hitting the US.

[OuterBanker]

Today's Euro was like a pardon from the Govenor.

Apparently the Govenor has rescinded his pardon.

[Shell Mound]

In my humble view, despite the models, I'm quite confident that this will curve OTS, remaining E of Bermuda. It will be hard for Florence to miss the interaction between a TUTT to its east and an incoming trough to its north by days five and six. The location, large-scale troughs, and climatology would strongly favour an OTS track. Many things would need to go wrong for Florence to somehow defy all these factors, miss the trough axes, get caught under the incoming ridge, and head W toward the U.S. East Coast and/or Bermuda. Respectfully, I'm not sure as to why some people trust the UKMET/ECMWF in this situation, given their stubborn W/weak biases with Florence. While not perfect, of the global models, the GFS has performed the best in regard to the track and intensity (depth) of Florence thus far. I offer further thoughts below:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2699945#p2699945

[Blown Away]

In my humble view, despite the models, I'm quite confident that this will curve OTS, remaining E of Bermuda. It will be hard for Florence to miss the interaction between a TUTT to its east and an incoming trough to its north by days five and six. The location, large-scale troughs, and climatology would strongly favour an OTS track. Many things would need to go wrong for Florence to somehow defy all these factors, miss the trough axes, get caught under the incoming ridge, and head W toward the U.S. East Coast and/or Bermuda. Respectfully, I'm not sure as to why some people trust the UKMET/ECMWF in this situation, given their stubborn W/weak biases with Florence. While not perfect, of the global models, the GFS has performed the best in regard to the track and intensity (depth) of Florence thus far. I offer further thoughts below:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2699945#p2699945

I agree with you, I always side with climatology because it's usually the best bet. Ike destroyed that confidence, I'm still amazed what Ike did from the Central Atlantic to Texas.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1037320484482891777

[Steve]

In my humble view, despite the models, I'm quite confident that this will curve OTS, remaining E of Bermuda. It will be hard for Florence to miss the interaction between a TUTT to its east and an incoming trough to its north by days five and six. The location, large-scale troughs, and climatology would strongly favour an OTS track. Many things would need to go wrong for Florence to somehow defy all these factors, miss the trough axes, get caught under the incoming ridge, and head W toward the U.S. East Coast and/or Bermuda. Respectfully, I'm not sure as to why some people trust the UKMET/ECMWF in this situation, given their stubborn W/weak biases with Florence. While not perfect, of the global models, the GFS has performed the best in regard to the track and intensity (depth) of Florence thus far. I offer further thoughts below:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2699945#p2699945

Joe B is going 1 in 4 chances of a recurve and 3 in 4 of a hit. He's got it at a "4" off the NC Coast next Wednesday. Whether he's right or not is unknown.

[toad strangler]

When modeling is in upheaval always lean on climo a little heavier

[ColdMiser123]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1037320484482891777

Unclear how much of that is related to trochoidal wobbles. NHC also mentioned that in their discussion this morning:

Florence is estimated to be moving northwestward, or 305/11 kt,
which appears to be a temporary trochoidal eyewall wobble. A turn
back toward the west-northwest is expected later today, and this
general motion is expected to continue through day 4 while the
hurricane is steered by the southwestern periphery of the
subtropical ridge.

[pgoss11]

Looking at he overnight models, it is a little concerning, however, living in the Coastal Carolinas, the odds for an east coast hit have to be fairly low considering the latitude and strength of the storm and climatology. I'll be vigilant but Florence is 7-9 days away and I'm fairly confident that there's plenty of time to watch. One thing for sure is Florence is a fun storm to track!

[hurricaneCW]

When modeling is in upheaval always lean on climo a little heavier

Normally I'm all on board with climo but then storms like Ike, Irma, and Sandy happened and suddenly the picture became a lot more muddled.