ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Hurricaneman]

If this is any farther south than the Euro has this it’s almost a slam dunk this misses the chance to escape

[Aric Dunn]

yeah ridging this run is quite a big stronger. this is heading towards florida and georiga area.. though with that ridge it might turn sw shortly.

[AubreyStorm]

[TheDreamTraveler]

Looks like Florence is heading almost due west towards the east coast.

[Aric Dunn]

12z euro yesterday 36hrs ago..

very similar to this run... but ridge is much stronger.


current run

[Aric Dunn]

straight west heading towards SC & NC

look how much ridging over the east coast and US>. lol..

[TheDreamTraveler]

It's over south carolina at 216. It's not even recurving at this point lol not sure when it's even going to.

[LarryWx]

Georgetown, SC, is hit dead-on on 9/13 on the 0Z Euro.

[Aric Dunn]

landfall central SC.. very large cat3 borderline 4..

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the Euro has a Hugo

Looks like the models are actually trending toward the UKMET

[Aric Dunn]

It's over south carolina at 216. It's not even recurving at this point lol not sure when it's even going to.

lol look at that ridging.. its going to travel west to like Missouri before turning. lol

[hurricaneCW]

So much for that guaranteed fish.

[Brent]

well then that was quite a run

[Aric Dunn]

well alrighty. ridge starts to break down end of run..

in 72 hours we will know if it is going to get trapped or not.

good night.

[LarryWx]

The crucial latitude to cross before 60W is 30N to very likely avoid the SE US. The 0Z Euro barely did that and moved her west along 30N before shifting to a WNW track. However, the 0Z UKMET has it moving due west way down at 25.2N, the latitude of the far S tip of FL.

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 43.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2018 0 20.5N 43.9W 994 53
1200UTC 05.09.2018 12 21.6N 45.7W 998 52
0000UTC 06.09.2018 24 22.6N 47.8W 1001 50
1200UTC 06.09.2018 36 23.6N 49.7W 1004 48
0000UTC 07.09.2018 48 24.2N 51.1W 1005 46
1200UTC 07.09.2018 60 24.4N 52.9W 1005 44
0000UTC 08.09.2018 72 24.3N 54.2W 1003 42
1200UTC 08.09.2018 84 24.2N 55.1W 999 48
0000UTC 09.09.2018 96 24.5N 56.0W 991 55
1200UTC 09.09.2018 108 24.7N 57.4W 985 53
0000UTC 10.09.2018 120 25.1N 59.1W 971 63
1200UTC 10.09.2018 132 25.2N 61.0W 965 70
0000UTC 11.09.2018 144 25.2N 63.1W 963 70

[TheDreamTraveler]

I think the more concerning thing is that the models are showing it getting trapped as we get closer to the time that/if it happens. If the models are still showing the same solutions later today and tomorrow then I think we might have a good idea if it gets trapped.

[northjaxpro]

I think the more concerning thing is that the models are showing it getting trapped as we get closer to the time that/if it happens. If the models are still showing the same solutions later today and tomorrow then I think we might have a good idea if it gets trapped.

[LarryWx]

Hour 96 of the 0Z EPS mean is not only further S than the 12Z EPS but it is also further south than the 0Z Euro operational.

[northjaxpro]

I think the more concerning thing is that the models are showing it getting trapped as we get closer to the time that/if it happens. If the models are still showing the same solutions later today and tomorrow then I think we might have a good idea if it gets trapped.

It looks as if the models are picking up on the positive NAO and the very anomalous high pressures for the Western Atlantic and East Coast U.S. This potential is indeed very concerning for the. potential of impacts from Florence late next week. We really have to watch this situation closely.

[carolina_73]

That would be the worst case scenario for Myrtle Beach