ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS says let me plow through this roadblock because why not...

It's hard to take the GFS seriously after hour 150 because of the way it handles the ridge. imo

[Aric Dunn]

its just weak steering currents..

big ridge coming in from west.. should do a loop.. .. should .. lol

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The end of this GFS run is one of the strangest things I've ever seen in twenty years of model watching.

[gatorcane]

Yep HUGE shift west by the GFS. Why is it that the UKMET sometimes leads the pack with sniffing out a major forecast track change?

[galaxy401]

Just when it looked like there was an agreement on a recurve, the GFS throws a softball at us.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Yep HUGE shift west by the GFS. Why is it that the UKMET sometimes leads the pack with sniffing out a major forecast track change?

It is very interesting. I could almost see this GFS shift coming after what the UK did.

[ava_ati]

Just when it looked like there was an agreement on a recurve, the GFS throws a softball at us.

I've learned to trust the UKMET after Matthew and Irma. Until it shows a recurve I'm expecting the worst.

[AutoPenalti]

Last few frames...



Yeah, I gave up after that.

[SouthFLTropics]

Wow...the end of that GFS run gave Bermuda the ride of their life. They had stuff swirling all around them.

[AnnularCane]

GFS says let me plow through this roadblock because why not...

So Florence misses a weakness but plows through a ridge?

[hohnywx]

Yep HUGE shift west by the GFS. Why is it that the UKMET sometimes leads the pack with sniffing out a major forecast track change?

I believe model statistics show that the UKMet performs second-best worldwide (after the Euro). It is a highly skilled model.

[Hurricaneman]

GFS says let me plow through this roadblock because why not...

So Florence misses a weakness but plows through a ridge?

If the GFS was doing the movement right to the ridge trough positions it would probably be a Florida hurricane, Anyone from Miami to Nova Scotia need to keep tabs on this for sure

[Aric Dunn]

was almost a loop..

[Hurricaneman]

Last few frames...



Yeah, I gave up after that.

Yep after 192hrs the model becomes trash

[AutoPenalti]

GFS Prototype is running...

[gatorcane]

18% GFS ensembles have a significant group targeting SE US coastline:

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

GFS soundings show east-northeasterlies in the mid levels while Florence is passing south of Bermuda, which would tend to support a southwest motion (think Irma) like the UKMET shows. Not sure why the GFS doesn't indicate it. Probably the same reason the GFS sends the hurricane directly into the ridge.

[hohnywx]

GFS soundings show east-northeasterlies in the mid levels while Florence is passing south of Bermuda, which would tend to support a southwest motion (think Irma) like the UKMET shows. Not sure why the GFS doesn't indicate it. Probably the same reason the GFS sends the hurricane directly into the ridge.

The GFS "truncates" after 180 hours, so the model can be prone to doing some funky things in that time frame.

[Hurricaneman]

GFS soundings show east-northeasterlies in the mid levels while Florence is passing south of Bermuda, which would tend to support a southwest motion (think Irma) like the UKMET shows. Not sure why the GFS doesn't indicate it. Probably the same reason the GFS sends the hurricane directly into the ridge.

The GFS "truncates" after 180 hours, so the model can be prone to doing some funky things in that time frame.

It used to many years ago now it truncates after 240 hrs or 10 days

[WeatherEmperor]

GFS soundings show east-northeasterlies in the mid levels while Florence is passing south of Bermuda, which would tend to support a southwest motion (think Irma) like the UKMET shows. Not sure why the GFS doesn't indicate it. Probably the same reason the GFS sends the hurricane directly into the ridge.

Can you post an image of the UKMeT and the SW motion it shows?


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