#447 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 04, 2018 3:26 pm
A further update on the 12Z EPS. Main message: still way too soon for all clear for SE US.
The crucial longitude point is near 60W and the crucial day is ~ Sunday 9/9. That's when ~2/3 of the 51 members, the ones north of 30N, then recurve safely into the north Atlantic. However, ~1/3 of them, which are then located 25-30N and which average somewhat weaker than the recurvers further to the north, stop their northward move and turn left/west due to being trapped by a ridge. Then whereas a few just mill around, the majority of that 1/3 become SE US threats with a whopping 9 TS+ members hitting (almost all Hs), the most of any recent run. Also, there are 2 other members with Hs not far offshore NC at the end of the run. Most (6) of these 9 hits are earlier, 9/12-14: 4 hit near SC/NC border and the other 2 hit near Daytona Beach. However, 3 of them are much later (yes they are from Florence, not the followup which itself hits FL with Hs from 3 members) 9/18-9: 2 hit SC and 1 hits S FL. In addition, one of the earlier 6 H hits comes back offshore and then re-hits the SE with a H on 9/17 at the FL/GA border.
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