ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[hohnywx]

Nearly direct hit from a Cat 3. That's an unsettling scenario.

I'm sorry, if I missed dfiscussion about this earlier, but serious question, who's getting a direct hit in this scenario?

That speck of land at 32N would be Bermuda.

[toad strangler]

Nearly direct hit from a Cat 3. That's an unsettling scenario.

I'm sorry, if I missed dfiscussion about this earlier, but serious question, who's getting a direct hit in this scenario?

Bermuda

[chaser1]

The FV3 did well with Lane. Here is an article discussing it: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... ad1031583a

Thanks for the read. Good article, albeit brief. I'd be curious how the FV3 performed verses other models with regard to Lane's intensity forecasts. I'd also be curious to know how the HWRF performed with regard to intensity as well. I think the HWRF was introduced at a time when the GFDL was still a respected model and one I had liked for a time. Not even sure I ever hear it even referenced anymore.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The FV3 did well with Lane. Here is an article discussing it: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... ad1031583a

Thanks for the read. Good article, albeit brief. I'd be curious how the FV3 performed verses other models with regard to Lane's intensity forecasts. I'd also be curious to know how the HWRF performed with regard to intensity as well. I think the HWRF was introduced at a time when the GFDL was still a respected model and one I had liked for a time. Not even sure I ever hear it even referenced anymore.

The HMON replaced starting last season.

[LarryWx]

06Z GFS recurves Florence between Bermuda and NC but brings it all the way down to 925MB as it does so. Irma-ing? Conditions will be better than it's in now, but not THAT favorable, no?

Yes, I think the 925 mb is most likely due to Irma-ing (lowering pressures too much).

[OuterBanker]

Although I would like to believe the current Euro and a fish by 60w I don’t think that the windshield wipers are through. Until it takes the right at the fork in the road I will keep a cautious eye. After reading the article on the FV3 I am going to paying more attention to it. It was no surprise that the GFS was and is the least accurate. The fv3 surprised me. Of particular interest is that it does take Flo out to sea but at the end of the run it appears to have a west heading monster. Does anyone know which system it’s referring to”

[drewschmaltz]

Irma-ing

Lowest pressure for Irma was 914. 882 was lowest GFS I believe. Had it not dipped south both before PR and into Cuba and encountered the warmest waters intact, I don't doubt it would have come close.

[LarryWx]

Irma-ing

Lowest pressure for Irma was 914. 882 was lowest GFS I believe. Had it not dipped south both before PR and into Cuba and encountered the warmest waters intact, I don't doubt it would have come close.

But the GFS even had it as low as the 890s SE of the SC/NC border! That's insane. The higher resolution GFS tends to lower pressures too much in general in the subtropics just as I think it is doing with Florence now.

[Kazmit]

12z GFS is further east, and OTS. Looks like we finally have agreement between the GFS and the Euro.

[Ken711]

Irma-ing

Lowest pressure for Irma was 914. 882 was lowest GFS I believe. Had it not dipped south both before PR and into Cuba and encountered the warmest waters intact, I don't doubt it would have come close.

But the GFS even had it as low as the 890s SE of the SC/NC border! That's insane. The higher resolution GFS tends to lower pressures too much in general in the subtropics just as I think it is doing with Florence now.

I think it was even slightly further North with the 890s at the NC/VA border depicted by the GFS.

[plasticup]

12z GFS is further east, and OTS. Looks like we finally have agreement between the GFS and the Euro.

Yep, they both have a solid recurve now. Funny how much can change in 24 hours.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS is further east, and OTS. Looks like we finally have agreement between the GFS and the Euro.

Yep, they both have a solid recurve now. Funny how much can change in 24 hours.

Well I wouldn't call one run of the Euro solid .... although ensembles at 12z were leading that way yesterday.

[plasticup]

By "solid" I meant that they firmly recurved the storm well short of any land. Not that this single set of runs makes the conclusion "solid".

[drewschmaltz]

there was some pretty warm water on the way there. warmer than where it was.

[LarryWx]

Last 4 GEFS runs with regard to TS+ hits on the US SE coast out of (~20 members):

18Z Mon 0 hits
0Z Tue 0 hits
6Z Tue 4 hits: FL/GA border, SC/NC border, NC OB, skirt NC OB
12Z Tue 2 hits: GA/SC border, SC

So, low risk remains, but odds still much better to stay away.

[plasticup]

there was some pretty warm water on the way there. warmer than where it was.

What are we looking at here? That's not Florence. The only thing at that latitude is 92L, but not even the long-range models correlate with those markers. And the SST is different. I am confused.

[txwatcher91]

Meanwhile the CMC has for several runs now shown a near miss or coastal scraper for NC/VA area.

[drewschmaltz]

there was some pretty warm water on the way there. warmer than where it was.

What are we looking at here? That's not Florence. The only thing at that latitude is 92L, but not even the long-range models correlate with those markers. And the SST is different. I am confused.

I went way too offtopic. Was saying "irma-ing" might not be the best term for the models overdoing a storm. I tried to delete, but there were already responses.

[plasticup]

Meanwhile the CMC has for several runs now shown a near miss or coastal scraper for NC/VA area.

It gets there via a blocking high at 25N. That is so different from the model consensus and so near in the future (it diverges around 78-90 hours) that it is hard to take seriously.

[OuterBanker]

Today's Euro was like a pardon from the Govenor.