ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[GCANE]

Pushing into some mid-level dry air

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018

...GORDON CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 85.7W
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES



Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018

Gordon has changed little in organization on geostationary
satellite images or on the WSR-88D radar presentation over the past
several hours. The storm has a small CDO with convective banding
features primarily over the eastern semicircle of the circulation.
Overall the cloud pattern is indicative of moderate westerly shear
over the system, likely associated with an upper-level trough near
the central Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane
Hunter aircraft investigated Gordon a few hours ago and reported
maximum SFMR-measured surface winds of 54 kt. On this basis the
intensity had been adjusted to 55 kt, which is somewhat above the
latest Dvorak estimates. It is assumed that the shear will not be
strong enough to inhibit at least some strengthening before
landfall, so the tropical cyclone is still forecast to become a
hurricane later today. The official forecast, prior to landfall, is
close to the latest LGEM intensity guidance, and near the upper end
of the guidance suite. Gordon should weaken rapidly after landfall
in the lower Mississippi Valley region.

The motion continues west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt. There is
little or no change to the NHC track prediction or forecast
reasoning from the previous advisory. Gordon is expected to move
along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area
and make landfall along the north-central Gulf of Mexico coast
within 24 hours. After landfall, the cyclone is forecast to move
northwestward, along the western side of the high, at a reduced
forward speed. Late in the forecast period Gordon, or its
post-tropical remnant, should turn northward to north-northeastward
as it approaches the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track
forecast is near the model consensus and very close to the previous
NHC track.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and
hurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast where a
Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. Residents
in these areas should listen to advice from their local officials.
All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in
the warning areas this afternoon.

2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect the western Florida
Panhandle, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and Louisiana,
where totals could reach as high as 12 inches. This rainfall could
cause flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 27.7N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 29.0N 87.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 30.7N 89.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1800Z 32.2N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0600Z 33.4N 92.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/0600Z 34.9N 94.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z 37.0N 94.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z 40.0N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[tropicwatch]

Over the past hour or so, Gordon appears to be moving a little bit more northerly.

[Nimbus]

Surface pressure only dropped 2 MB overnight and its still steaming along at a good clip toward an early landfall so that is good news. West side of the storm must be sheared.

[Ian2401]

Hurricane Hunters just pulled 1000.1 mb out of the core

[tropicwatch]

Hurricane Hunters just pulled 1000.1 mb out of the core

I think they missed the center. AF will be going through shortly.

[wxman57]

Looks very disorganized and quite sheared. Hardly any wind N-W-S of the center. The only strong winds were about 100 miles east of the center.

[toad strangler]

Looks very disorganized and quite sheared. Hardly any wind N-W-S of the center. The only strong winds were about 100 miles east of the center.

You pretty much nailed this early yesterday.

[tolakram]

Mid level water vapor loop. The ULL SW of the system is finally moving off to the SW. Obvious UFO flyby mid loop. Either that or space junk.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-southconus-09-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[tolakram]

Shortwave IR: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-07-200-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[NDG]

This morning Gordon is 164 miles south of Seaside FL, 244 miles SE of Gulfport MS.

[NDG]

This does not happens too often seeing a tropical system move across the GOM at 17-18 mph, Gordon is creating its own westerly shear despite the ULL to its south create easterly UL winds over it, if there would had been SW UL winds over it Gordon's LLC would had been naked this morning.
In the other hand in the middle of the Atlantic Florence is moving slower at 13 mph, it is usually the other way round.

[wx98]

Winds definitely look weaker according to recon, possible down to 40 or 45 kt

[NDG]

Winds definitely look weaker according to recon, possible down to 40 or 45 kt

It hasn't sampled the NE quadrant yet, that's where the strongest winds were last night.

[GCANE]

Kermit on top, AF305 on bottom

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
700 AM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018

...GORDON MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 86.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...25 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[Frank2]

Gordon is becoming one of those awkward situations for OCM's - hyping a weak system is something they always hate. It happened a few times when I worked in the business, and they really did not like having to deal with the conflict, because as one OCM told us, it bordered on lying...

The good news is the situation is much better than what many thought it would be this time yesterday. When it passed over Fort Lauderdale, our weather except for one rain squall about 9 a.m. was actually nice all day - light rain, cool temps and almost no wind - very late Fall like for this area...

Frank

[NDG]

I think the only thing that could help Gordon strengthen later today is land friction before landfall like it did yesterday morning.
There is still some strong east to west surface winds all across the northern gulf coast this morning, it basically has no inflow from the north & NW quadrant.

[drezee]

Gordon is not vertically stacked. Which is great news.. if it was watch out. Not enough time to restock at current forward speed. There would have to be quite a massive tower in the MLC to suck it back in.

[wxman57]

Poor satellite representation, no significant inflow, rising pressure - not signals of something that will become a hurricane in a few hours. NHC won't likely lower the intensity because they don't want the public to lower their guard. I'd say it may have a very small pocket of 40-45 kt winds now.