ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#401 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:52 pm

GFS decides to plow through the ridge...

Image
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#402 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:56 pm

If the GFS did what the ridge to storm shows it would do something similar to the Euro
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#403 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 04, 2018 12:59 am

Proto-type GFS is OTS-ish? at 270 HRS.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#404 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:03 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Proto-type GFS is OTS-ish? at 270 HRS.

If it does go OTS, it was by the skin of its teeth. Doesn't make anybody feel comfortable when the timing is THIS close.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#405 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:34 am

Euro now OTS.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#406 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:00 am

All these runs have been all over the place, time to keep waiting.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#407 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:01 am

Euro goes OTS this run but it was definitely a close call with it getting blocked. Not out of the woods yet I'd say since we still have a while to go.
Last edited by TheDreamTraveler on Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#408 Postby Mouton » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:01 am

Yes, Euro not OTS. Whew. :sun:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#409 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:26 am

GFS run isn't over yet but it looks like GFS and ECMWF decided to switch places lol. Euro showed a recurve and GFS is showing it getting trapped under the ridge and heading towards the coast. It still could change and start to recurve but not sure.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#410 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:33 am

Recurve looks like it starts at around 198 hours. Might be as close as it gets to the east coast on this run.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#411 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:37 am

Trend since 6am yesterday...


Image



24 Hour EURO trend...

Image
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:56 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#412 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:45 am

GFS trending west towards the euro is pretty big imo even if the 0z operational went out to sea earlier.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#413 Postby SconnieCane » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:46 am

06Z GFS recurves Florence between Bermuda and NC but brings it all the way down to 925MB as it does so. Irma-ing? Conditions will be better than it's in now, but not THAT favorable, no?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#414 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:32 am

And the east coast lived happily ever after. :D
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#415 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:34 am

OuterBanker wrote:And the east coast lived happily ever after. :D

For this run at least.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#416 Postby Highteeld » Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:29 am

Image
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#417 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:29 am

The 06z FV3 GFS was a good bit west of its 00z run, close call but safely away from the East Coast this run.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#418 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:05 am

The FV3 did well with Lane. Here is an article discussing it: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... ad1031583a
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#419 Postby plasticup » Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:17 am

Image

Nearly direct hit from a Cat 3. That's an unsettling scenario.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#420 Postby otowntiger » Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:45 am

plasticup wrote:Image

Nearly direct hit from a Cat 3. That's an unsettling scenario.

I'm sorry, if I missed dfiscussion about this earlier, but serious question, who's getting a direct hit in this scenario? :edit: nevermind, I see what I presume is Bermuda in that image now, didn't see it earlier.
thanks.
Last edited by otowntiger on Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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