ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Highteeld
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#361 Postby Highteeld » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:57 pm

gatorcane wrote:Has anybody seen the 18Z FV3 GFS? This has to be one of the most bizarre runs I have seen. The model has Florence way up at 38N and dives is SW where it ends up in the Bahamas but stops just before hitting Florida. :double:

Link to full run:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 318&fh=186

Image

That was like hurricane ping pong.
Last edited by Highteeld on Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#362 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:57 pm

gatorcane wrote:Has anybody seen the 18Z FV3 GFS? This has to be one of the most bizarre runs I have seen. The model has Florence way up at 38N and dives is SW where it ends up in the Bahamas but stops just before hitting Florida. :double:

Link to full run:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 318&fh=186

Image

i dont see happening but do gfs was right
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#363 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:02 pm

gatorcane wrote:Has anybody seen the 18Z FV3 GFS? This has to be one of the most bizarre runs I have seen. The model has Florence way up at 38N and dives is SW where it ends up in the Bahamas but stops just before hitting Florida. :double:

Link to full run:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 318&fh=186

[icc/sjec3d8px/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_atl_59.png[/img]


Gator,

Yes I just saw it. While it does look bizarre, at least the Euro isnt the only model showing that SW dip anymore. Not 100% sure how this relates to anything, but the prediction is for the NAO to become very very positive in the 10-14 day range and I learned that positive NAO regimes tend to contribute to stronger ridges of high pressure.

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#364 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:12 pm

gatorcane wrote:Has anybody seen the 18Z FV3 GFS? This has to be one of the most bizarre runs I have seen. The model has Florence way up at 38N and dives is SW where it ends up in the Bahamas but stops just before hitting Florida. :double:

Link to full run:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 318&fh=186

Image


Thinks good thoughts. :eek:

What a horrid tend. At least there is still time for a change. :sun:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#365 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:25 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#366 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:29 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Has anybody seen the 18Z FV3 GFS? This has to be one of the most bizarre runs I have seen. The model has Florence way up at 38N and dives is SW where it ends up in the Bahamas but stops just before hitting Florida. :double:

Link to full run:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 318&fh=186

Image


Thinks good thoughts. :eek:

What a horrid tend. At least there is still time for a change. :sun:


I opened this up thinking it was the 12zeuro but it’s another model joining the Florida landfal scenario which needs to be watched, don’t want to see another Andrew or Betsy like storm from this or even 1944 storm so think good thoughts because this just got real interesting
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#367 Postby SootyTern » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:41 pm

Lots of fun stuff going on during that run. I also like how the big northern low comes down and gobbles up that one little wave that comes off of Africa. Storm-in-a-teacup needs to check this one out; she would come up with a fantastic story about these storms!
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#368 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:45 pm

this long way we still have long time to watch enjoy rest week we see turn out to sea by next week or show getting close to usa
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#369 Postby Blinhart » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:47 pm

Scary thought of this making it to the Bahamas, before Helene and the ones behind her, this could become a very serious situation.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#370 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:49 pm

Well here we go, TVCN and TVCX turning this west:

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#371 Postby Blinhart » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:54 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image


Does it do a Fujiwara effect of Helene and Florence???
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#372 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:59 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image

Wait what? :eek:
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#373 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:02 pm

Blinhart wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image


Does it do a Fujiwara effect of Helene and Florence???


This looks like an ad for:

"This is your brain on drugs"
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#374 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:08 pm

The east coast looks like it's about to be gobbled up! :lol:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#375 Postby Ken711 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:21 pm

AnnularCane wrote:The east coast looks like it's about to be gobbled up! :lol:


Let's hope not.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#376 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:02 pm

Ken711 wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:The east coast looks like it's about to be gobbled up! :lol:


Let's hope not.

FOR REAL! :eek:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#377 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:03 pm

There’s a little bit more ridging on the 0zGFS compared to the 18zGFS but the storm is stronger this run, it’s going to be a close call whether this goes up and out or westward ho
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#378 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:06 pm

Looks like it’s slow moving at 96hrs to 102hrs
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#379 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:08 pm

Looks like at 120hrs the escape hatch closes, if so that’s bad news
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#380 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:10 pm

Monster ridge at 120-126
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