ATL: FLORENCE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2139
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#361 Postby Highteeld » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:57 pm

gatorcane wrote:Has anybody seen the 18Z FV3 GFS? This has to be one of the most bizarre runs I have seen. The model has Florence way up at 38N and dives is SW where it ends up in the Bahamas but stops just before hitting Florida. :double:

Link to full run:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 318&fh=186

Image

That was like hurricane ping pong.
Last edited by Highteeld on Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Top
floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#362 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:57 pm

gatorcane wrote:Has anybody seen the 18Z FV3 GFS? This has to be one of the most bizarre runs I have seen. The model has Florence way up at 38N and dives is SW where it ends up in the Bahamas but stops just before hitting Florida. :double:

Link to full run:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 318&fh=186

Image

i dont see happening but do gfs was right
1 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#363 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:02 pm

gatorcane wrote:Has anybody seen the 18Z FV3 GFS? This has to be one of the most bizarre runs I have seen. The model has Florence way up at 38N and dives is SW where it ends up in the Bahamas but stops just before hitting Florida. :double:

Link to full run:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 318&fh=186

[icc/sjec3d8px/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_atl_59.png[/img]


Gator,

Yes I just saw it. While it does look bizarre, at least the Euro isnt the only model showing that SW dip anymore. Not 100% sure how this relates to anything, but the prediction is for the NAO to become very very positive in the 10-14 day range and I learned that positive NAO regimes tend to contribute to stronger ridges of high pressure.

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2811
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:
Contact Hybridstorm_November2001

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#364 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:12 pm

gatorcane wrote:Has anybody seen the 18Z FV3 GFS? This has to be one of the most bizarre runs I have seen. The model has Florence way up at 38N and dives is SW where it ends up in the Bahamas but stops just before hitting Florida. :double:

Link to full run:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 318&fh=186

Image


Thinks good thoughts. :eek:

What a horrid tend. At least there is still time for a change. :sun:
0 likes   
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#365 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:25 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#366 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:29 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Has anybody seen the 18Z FV3 GFS? This has to be one of the most bizarre runs I have seen. The model has Florence way up at 38N and dives is SW where it ends up in the Bahamas but stops just before hitting Florida. :double:

Link to full run:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 318&fh=186

Image


Thinks good thoughts. :eek:

What a horrid tend. At least there is still time for a change. :sun:


I opened this up thinking it was the 12zeuro but it’s another model joining the Florida landfal scenario which needs to be watched, don’t want to see another Andrew or Betsy like storm from this or even 1944 storm so think good thoughts because this just got real interesting
0 likes   
Top
SootyTern
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 316
Age: 56
Joined: Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:09 pm
Location: NYC (formerly Homestead, FL)

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#367 Postby SootyTern » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:41 pm

Lots of fun stuff going on during that run. I also like how the big northern low comes down and gobbles up that one little wave that comes off of Africa. Storm-in-a-teacup needs to check this one out; she would come up with a fantastic story about these storms!
4 likes   
Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Gulf Coast: Opal '95 Georges '98 / So Fla: Katrina '05 Wilma '05 Irma '17
Top
floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#368 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:45 pm

this long way we still have long time to watch enjoy rest week we see turn out to sea by next week or show getting close to usa
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2079
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#369 Postby Blinhart » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:47 pm

Scary thought of this making it to the Bahamas, before Helene and the ones behind her, this could become a very serious situation.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#370 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:49 pm

Well here we go, TVCN and TVCX turning this west:

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2079
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#371 Postby Blinhart » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:54 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image


Does it do a Fujiwara effect of Helene and Florence???
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#372 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:59 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image

Wait what? :eek:
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1731
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:
Contact OuterBanker

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#373 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:02 pm

Blinhart wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image


Does it do a Fujiwara effect of Helene and Florence???


This looks like an ad for:

"This is your brain on drugs"
4 likes   
Top
User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2862
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#374 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:08 pm

The east coast looks like it's about to be gobbled up! :lol:
1 likes   
Top
Ken711
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1074
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:48 pm

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#375 Postby Ken711 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:21 pm

AnnularCane wrote:The east coast looks like it's about to be gobbled up! :lol:


Let's hope not.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2367
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#376 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:02 pm

Ken711 wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:The east coast looks like it's about to be gobbled up! :lol:


Let's hope not.

FOR REAL! :eek:
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#377 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:03 pm

There’s a little bit more ridging on the 0zGFS compared to the 18zGFS but the storm is stronger this run, it’s going to be a close call whether this goes up and out or westward ho
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#378 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:06 pm

Looks like it’s slow moving at 96hrs to 102hrs
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#379 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:08 pm

Looks like at 120hrs the escape hatch closes, if so that’s bad news
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
GeneratorPower
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1648
Age: 45
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
Location: Huntsville, AL

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#380 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:10 pm

Monster ridge at 120-126
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests