AutoPenalti wrote:GFS somehow believing this will strengthen to a Cat 2 in 18 hours.
You know, the FV3-GFS was supposed to be an upgrade to the GFS itself and on a couple circumstances there forecast solutions have varied. Right now though? Not much; both carrying Florence generally WNW up to 72 hours and then both make a pronounced pole-ward turn. Looking at the really dry air to the immediate west that Florence seems on the verge of digesting for dinner tonight, I don't see how this storm is going to maintain itself beyond perhaps a shallow depression. Warmer SST's be damned, I think Florence is about to get a case of anemia by this evening. I would think that a more westward motion will ensue from that point on for at least a couple days. Maybe the Canadian, the UK and EURO are somehow seeing the dryer air potentially becoming ingested into the circulation while the GFS does not hence their mid term forecast maintains a greater westward bias for a less vertically stacked system.
