ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[MississippiWx]

Also pretty funny to watch all the shear just disappear ahead of it... all the people saying not to watch the shear analysis ( always use it and watch trends) . earlier today the shear in the SE eastern gulf was 40kts.. now almost zero..

Yeah I posted earlier that you can see it lessening ahead of its path, compared to earlier. Still not sure why I get called out for posting current conditions. I never post that I think it's going to stay like that. I always watch shear closely and sometimes you can pick up hints of a trend taking form.

Don't think you're getting "called out." It just seems like most people who post current conditions to show shear are trying to state that something won't develop because high shear is currently in the future path. Well, as you can see in this case, what lies in the path doesn't just stay there most of the time...

[chaser1]

Also pretty funny to watch all the shear just disappear ahead of it... all the people saying not to watch the shear analysis ( always use it and watch trends) . earlier today the shear in the SE eastern gulf was 40kts.. now almost zero..

Yeah I posted earlier that you can see it lessening ahead of its path, compared to earlier. Still not sure why I get called out for posting current conditions. I never post that I think it's going to stay like that. I always watch shear closely and sometimes you can pick up hints of a trend taking form.

Don't let it bother you. There are those who feel a need to try and assert their academic competence. Problem is, he was trying to correct you but not understanding that you were not suggesting that present analysis was an indicator of the future - but just an observation. That said, there are those that post here who will project shear analysis conditions as what future conditions will actually be. Hell..... as Aric mentioned above, there are times when you can't even trust the shear forecast and that's because in some cases the developing tropical system might actually play a larger role in shaping the local environment.

[chaser1]

Maybe I'm just really tired, but it seems to have slowed down some in the last several hours.

I'm gonna go with "pretty tired" and not slowing down much LOL. Of course if it were deepening some, there'd be reason to suggest a potential slowing down of forward motion. To me though, it looks like it's truckin' along still.

[chaser1]

Well, I see an area on radar soon approaching Marathon that could be a COC but I'm still leaning to a point that's a bit ESE of there.

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe I'm just really tired, but it seems to have slowed down some in the last several hours.

I'm gonna go with "pretty tired" and not slowing down much LOL. Of course if it were deepening some, there'd be reason to suggest a potential slowing down of forward motion. To me though, it looks like it's truckin' along still.

,=maybe just a little backing up into the developing convection type of slowing down

[Aric Dunn]

Well, I see an area on radar soon approaching Marathon that could be a COC but I'm still leaning to a point that's a bit ESE of there.

yeah at this point its going to be bouncing around quite a bit. also probably a couple vorts in there..

[NDG]

We definitely have a closed surface low now. IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

We definitely have a closed surface low now. IMO.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/RRPNk9D.gif[/ig]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/WZR3Ccx.gif[/img

without a doubt.. at is becoming more defined quickly..

should our next TS very soon.

[JarrodB]

Bars are open til 4am(edt) here.

All is well here. All clear here by tuesday am.

It is interesting to watch the genesis of 'gordon' directly.

[chaser1]

Looking quite defined on radar now! Albeit still looking a bit like dog-meat on IR though LOL

[chaser1]

Bars are open til 4am(edt) here.

All is well here. All clear here by tuesday am.

It is interesting to watch the genesis of 'gordon' directly.

4:00am, really? Jeez it seemed everything went to sleep early last time I was down there. 'Course, that was a number of years ago too.....

[NDG]

Looking quite defined on radar now! Albeit still looking a bit like dog-meat on IR though LOL

Give it a few hours, it should improve on IR as convection continues to build over the very warm gulf stream.

[chaser1]

We definitely have a closed surface low now. IMO.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/RRPNk9D.gif[/ig]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/WZR3Ccx.gif[/img

without a doubt.. at is becoming more defined quickly..

should our next TS very soon.

Your definition of very soon? I'll bet a beer it won't be before 11:00am

[chaser1]

Looking quite defined on radar now! Albeit still looking a bit like dog-meat on IR though LOL

Give it a few hours, it should improve on IR as convection continues to build over the very warm gulf stream.

I'm hoping it stays broad and sloppy just long enough to give us here in Central Florida a few more nice fast moving squall out of the east.

[chaser1]

That's it for me, time to punch out and hit the pillow. Will have to wake up and see if we have two named systems already.

[beoumont]

Potential Tropical Cyclone 7.... brought to you by "fans of the orange and blue" - go Gators!

On a more serious note, anyone see what I see????

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

Gators bite! Literally.

[Hammy]

No doubt at all that this is closed, at least at cloud level, and consolidating quickly.

[NDG]

Based on radar this is where I see the developing LLC, just west of the deep convection.

[NDG]

I can't believe they didn't upgrade it, but daylight might change their mind when first visible pics come in.
There is finally some nice pressure drop across the Keys.

[Aric Dunn]

Based on radar this is where I see the developing LLC, just west of the deep convection.

THere is definitely multiple vorts out there. looking out of miami as it is approaching the radar and not far above the surface you can see one. another farther south. where one takes over remains to be seen. but its happening fast.