ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

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MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#341 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:08 pm

NDG wrote:The past few minutes there appears to be a better surface vorticity getting going just SSW of Andros Island.

Image


Nice increase of showers too.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#342 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:37 pm

MississippiWx wrote:
NDG wrote:The past few minutes there appears to be a better surface vorticity getting going just SSW of Andros Island.

Image


Nice increase of showers too.


Yeah again so far right in line with the mesoscale models.. lol
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#343 Postby chaser1 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:47 pm

Have to say, it's really truckin' west. I was anticipating an approach close toward Miami-Dade. Looking at most recent sat and radar though, it could pass just south of at least the Upper Keys
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#344 Postby MGC » Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:51 pm

MCL is showing up nicely on long range Miami radar this evening. Just east of Andros Island in the Bahamas, headed WNW. Should be approaching the upper keys by morning. Still thinking PTC7 won't close off till the GOM. It will be interesting to watch its passage through the Keys tomorrow.....looking for that west wind.....MGC
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#345 Postby Frank2 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:52 pm

Rapidly moving west - possible LLC west of the MLC now ~ 30 miles W of Andros: https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#346 Postby Javlin » Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:58 pm

MGC wrote:MCL is showing up nicely on long range Miami radar this evening. Just east of Andros Island in the Bahamas, headed WNW. Should be approaching the upper keys by morning. Still thinking PTC7 won't close off till the GOM. It will be interesting to watch its passage through the Keys tomorrow.....looking for that west wind.....MGC

You're probably right the ULL you mentioned last night looked alittle more impressive this evening is moving SSW Fast should be out of the picture by tomorrow afternoon.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#347 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:03 pm

chaser1 wrote:Potential Tropical Cyclone 7.... brought to you by "fans of the orange and blue" - go Gators! :cheesy:

On a more serious note, anyone see what I see????

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined


Is the large band moving info S. fl?
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#348 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:18 pm

Wind gusts to 37 mph here in pompano beach
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#349 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:21 pm

Shear continues to decrease in its path.

Image
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#350 Postby Kazmit » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:26 pm

Conditions are definitely favorable in its path... how strong this gets depends on how quickly it can get its act together.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#351 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:51 pm

Radar is going to help us for a while. Can see where the center is working to the surface here.
Image
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#352 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:15 am

I'm amazed at how the models are doing pretty decent with this. Unless something drastic changes.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#353 Postby tailgater » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:15 am

tgenius wrote:
chaser1 wrote:Potential Tropical Cyclone 7.... brought to you by "fans of the orange and blue" - go Gators! :cheesy:

On a more serious note, anyone see what I see????

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined



Chaser, first go gators!

Second, that sure does look like an llc, but need visible in morning to know for sure.


Geaux Tigers beat down on the Canes.
Yes I see you Gordon to be. Seems to me that once it gets in the GOM it could get out from beneath the upper trough with a upper low over sw Fla. diving sw and the one over northern Fla filling it could ramp up quickly but it could just as easily stay in a marginal upper level conditions.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#354 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:57 am

You'd never know a tropical system was going to impact the Gulf Coast in a few days based on the crickets in this thread. :lol:
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#355 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:08 am

SoupBone wrote:You'd never know a tropical system was going to impact the Gulf Coast in a few days based on the crickets in this thread. :lol:


Mainly to do with the fact that models have trended away from a Texas impact. For whatever reason, we don't have many from Louisiana and Mississippi who participate here. Those are the two states that will be impacted the most. Add that to the fact that the models aren't showing a major hurricane, and it equals crickets. Lol.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#356 Postby paintplaye » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:14 am

ULL diving south across the western tip of Cuba is still shearing this system somewhat. It is moving rather quickly and may help to ventilate some tomorrow or Tuesday but development is still going to remain pretty slow. The best time for development may be those last 12 hours.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#357 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:18 am

The Euro is very close to the GFS solution now, and shifted east a bit. This puts most of the models right into Southeastern Louisiana/Mississippi border. Seems like unless something drastic changes, they're beginning to lock on and agree. Most look to have lost that hook into SE Texas as well.

Disclaimer: As we all know too well though, things can still change.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#358 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:24 am

Looking at cell motion.. looks like we have the "center" here. well on its way. roughly of course.
Image
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#359 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:30 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Looking at cell motion.. looks like we have the "center" here. well on its way. roughly of course.
Image


Believe it's a little further east than that, but still can't tell for sure. There is definitely noticeable turning in the lower level clouds again on satellite. Looks much better than earlier.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#360 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:31 am

I've got my eye on the three convective blow-ups over the past 90 minutes in the vicinity of 24N 79W. Looks to me like inflow is really picking up right now.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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