ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[RL3AO]

Fish this run. Significant shift west though. What the hell is pulling Florence so agressively? It almost moves straight through the ridging.

You know people live in Canada right?

Are you trying to use this rhetorical question to insult my intelligence? Or is there no other way to present your case for a potential Canadian landfall.

If it clips Cape Cod and/or makes landfall in Canada, then it's not a fish. You called it a fish.

[FLpanhandle91]

You know people live in Canada right?

Are you trying to use this rhetorical question to insult my intelligence? Or is there no other way to present your case for a potential Canadian landfall.

If it clips Cape Cod and/or makes landfall in Canada, then it's not a fish. You called it a fish.

Again, I apologize for this post. It was rude, but I didn't think predicting a fish was too farfetched.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like that's all she wrote for this 18z GFS run:



Just have to hope and pray that the trend of the track shifting west stops.

[USTropics]

It's becoming increasingly likely that Florence will not connect with the first shortwave trough passing over the CATL. What to watch for will be how Florence reacts in the coming days to a marginal/non-conducive atmosphere for development. A weaker system will mean a more southwest position. I wouldn't worry too much about the timing of the ridge/trough in the long range. Models are going to need some time to figure out quite a few variables (like how Typhoon Jebi in the Western Pacific will impact the large-scale atmospheric circulation downstream).

[gatorcane]

UKMET ensembles:

Another look here. Look at the west bend on that UKMET:

[Highteeld]

I love how this time the ridge just steps out of the way as if teasing a bull.

classic gfs

GFS did the same thing with Irma last year, too.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM turns Florence slowly west at the end:

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Sadly, I'm not surprised by the westward trend. The Bermuda High has been abnormally strong and displaced north this entire summer. The only positive is we are still ten days, roughly, from any possible impact. There is plenty of time for things to change, hopefully for the better *crosses fingers*. Go Eastward Trend!

[OuterBanker]

Wow, been gone all day painting a rental. Just looked at 12z Euro which is downright scary. 18z GFS looks as if it shifted 5 degrees west from 12z but still a miss. Not concerned yet because it's 10 days out. Today was last day for the surfing competition and unfortunately the waves were not good . If it was a week from this next Wed we could have seen ten footers if the GFS is right, twenty if the Euro is.

[CrazyC83]

18Z NAVGEM turns Florence slowly west at the end:

That looks like shades of Isabel...or Floyd...

[OuterBanker]

I know, i know, it's the Canadian. But I have never seen a 17 degree shift in any model ever in 12 hr model difference. Ooz and 12z was a whopping 17 degrees west shift.

[gatorcane]

I know, i know, it's the Canadian. But I have never seen a 17 degree shift in any model ever in 12 hr model difference. Ooz and 12z was a whopping 17 degrees west shift.

In the long-range, a group of Canadian ensembles send Florence west towards Florida. This is the most concentrated signal I have seen from the model so far west for Florence:

[plasticup]

Fish this run. Significant shift west though. What the hell is pulling Florence so agressively? It almost moves straight through the ridging.

Straight through Bermuda, no?

[RL3AO]

I know, i know, it's the Canadian. But I have never seen a 17 degree shift in any model ever in 12 hr model difference. Ooz and 12z was a whopping 17 degrees west shift.

Everything seems to track back to the models being one or two degrees further south/southwest through 72 hours. If it stays along the southern part of the NHC cone, it could get significantly further west.

[OuterBanker]

What is really strange is that the Euro 12z and Canadian 12z are almost exactly the same.

[Blown Away]

What is really strange is that the Euro 12z and Canadian 12z are almost exactly the same.

CMC was the blind squirrel on the 12z run...

[chaser1]

Fish this run. Significant shift west though. What the hell is pulling Florence so agressively? It almost moves straight through the ridging.

Straight through Bermuda, no?

If I had a dollar for every time you specifically referenced Bermuda............

[mitchell]

So the GFS trend has kept the recurve apex (max west position) at about 33-35 north BUT has shifted the longitude from 50 west to 70 west just in the past 24 hours. BIg trend. Does this trend continue? At this rate of trend the it will be inland over the Carolinas by the 06 z run. I realize trends don't continue forever. Given that the storm closest approach is 10 days out, and the track has moved like 800 miles westward in the past 24 hours, seems like a lot more changes are still to come.

[chaser1]

So the GFS trend has kept the recurve apex (max west position) at about 33-35 north BUT has shifted the longitude from 50 west to 70 west just in the past 24 hours. BIg trend. Does this trend continue? At this rate of trend the it will be inland over the Carolinas by the 06 z run.

Would be quite the irony huh? Florence strikes Florence (S.C.)

[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF...

12z CMC...