ATL: GORDON - Post-Tropical

[Blinhart]

Hopefully they will be sampling all of the GoM, and be doing weather balloons along the Gulf Coast every 6 or so hours.

[sphelps8681]

Shear is not dropping in its path, if anything after this brief window of good conditions shear will continue to increase.

If I saw it wrong it looked like shear increased after the system got in to the SE GOM.

[BobHarlem]

Radar isn't too much help with this one (yet).



Radar links for the aboe: short loop http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 1535905027

longer loop: http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?372

[tolakram]

Shear forecast can be wrong, on a regular basis, so you never want to take your eye off any disturbance at the peak of the season. I get worried when I see people taking sides, there are no sides here, just opinions.

[SoupBone]

Shear forecast can be wrong, on a regular basis, so you never want to take your eye off any disturbance at the peak of the season. I get worried when I see people taking sides, there are no sides here, just opinions.

Hence the "just joking" and deferring to the more seasoned.

I know it was explained a few days ago about the shear moving west with the system. Is it Winter yet?


And it looks like someone killed the shear maps this run! (Again, kidding), but they are unavailable.

[PSUHiker31]

Stop using shear analysis as a multi-day forecast.

[TorSkk]

07L SEVEN 180902 1800 22.4N 76.7W ATL 25 1012

Potential Tropical Cyclone 07

[SoupBone]

Stop using shear analysis as a multi-day forecast.

Current shear conditions are real-time, actual evidence of the conditions affecting a system. You cannot dismiss it simply because conditions can change. Are you suggesting that real-time conditions aren't worth as much as future forecasts? And this system is right on the outer boundary of higher shear located in the very spot its supposed to be headed. It's absolutely worthy of discussing for this system.

[Evil Jeremy]

07L SEVEN 180902 1800 22.4N 76.7W ATL 25 1012

Potential Tropical Cyclone 07

It's up on NRL too. Great first post!

[chaser1]

Just my opinion but looking at the broader water vapor for the E. CONUS, it appears to me that we have a fairly dominant upper level ridge over the W. Gulf near the Central Texas Coastline and then the building upper high over and to the north of this tropical disturbance north of East/Central Cuba. As I see it, both upper anticyclones appear to be building and might well bridge. I'd guess that the present shear zone dropping south and into the Eastern Gulf will move west in tandem with the overall flow but become increasingly pinched and may well cut off and be pushed WSW somewhat. This with a WNW to NW motion of any potentially developing tropical system might lend to some light southerly upper shear but even so as a result if it's forward motion were to cause it to be under the western-most edge of the somewhat bridged (and eastern most) upper anticyclone.

[drezee]

D r e z e e
What barrier/low lying islands are you thinking might need to be evacuated?

Maybe grand isle, but LLC has to consolidate first

[Nimbus]

Is there a single low level center that was just off the north cuban coast line tucking itself under the CDO? Be a lot better scenario if there were multiple vorts and the thing stayed disorganized..

[Dean4Storms]

Shear is not dropping in its path, if anything after this brief window of good conditions shear will continue to increase.

Finally someone is on my side!

Just kidding of course, but I've been mentioning that the shear in the Eastern GoM continues to increase, albeit slowly. Some posters have mentioned that feature will move in tandem with the system, but so far it hasn't really budged. I'm a novice though, so I defer to others that know more.

And that shear over the eastern Gulf is out of the SE, so if 91L is moving NW in tandem with the shear direction it cancels a percent of the shear speed through it. 30mph of shear speed - 15mph of storm motion = 15mph of realized shear. Not much.

[PSUHiker31]

Stop using shear analysis as a multi-day forecast.

Current shear conditions are real-time, actual evidence of the conditions affecting a system. You cannot dismiss it simply because conditions can change. Are you suggesting that real-time conditions aren't worth as much as future forecasts? And this system is right on the outer boundary of higher shear located in the very spot its supposed to be headed. It's absolutely worthy of discussing for this system.

Shear analysis maps mean absolutely nothing in a few hours much less a few days. There's nothing wrong with using them to assess the current conditions. There's everything wrong with using them as an absolute in a multi-day forecast. The people who do it on the boards every season always end up wrong for doing so.

[SoupBone]

Shear is not dropping in its path, if anything after this brief window of good conditions shear will continue to increase.

Finally someone is on my side!

Just kidding of course, but I've been mentioning that the shear in the Eastern GoM continues to increase, albeit slowly. Some posters have mentioned that feature will move in tandem with the system, but so far it hasn't really budged. I'm a novice though, so I defer to others that know more.

And that shear over the eastern Gulf is out of the SE, so if 91L is moving NW in tandem with the shear direction it cancels a percent of the shear speed through it. 30mph of shear speed - 15mph of storm motion = 15mph of realized shear. Not much.

That's a new piece of the puzzle for me. Thanks for that info.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is there a single low level center that was just off the north cuban coast line tucking itself under the CDO? Be a lot better scenario if there were multiple vorts and the thing stayed disorganized..

I believe it is an illusion created by disappearing clouds. I could be wrong though. I saw it earlier as well.

[chaser1]

07L SEVEN 180902 1800 22.4N 76.7W ATL 25 1012

Potential Tropical Cyclone 07

It's up on NRL too. Great first post!

It's official? Knew they'd have to tag it as a PTC this evening?! Just too tenuous of a situation with satellite continuing to show at least increasing mid level organization and an increase in convective bursting. Does that officially "lock" this thread now? I havn't seen any official update here or at NHC yet

[SFLcane]

Interesting maybe some watches coming for SFL?

[jasons2k]

Been away for a few hours, and just took a look at the latest satellite loops. Still looks like an open wave to me and it lost a lot of convection around the MLC.

[mcheer23]

Yeah, PTC 7 at 5pm.

TS watches/ warnings for Florida likely