Disturbed weather in the GOMEX

[Steve]

I could be wrong, but I don't think this will develop outside of being a prolific rainmaker. Looks like there are some bands setting up offshore today, and certainly the MS Gulf Coast looks to get a lot of that in the next day or so. It's definitely juiced up, but I don't think there will be enough time with the overall flow to get anything notable at the surface beyond maybe broad low pressure (as there is definitely some turning and churning down there).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

Steve, send it west please. We Texans will have the welcome wagon out for any rain. For all intents and purposes, after Harvey, someone turned off the spigot over our state.

I was down in San Marcos during that insane heatwave in mid-July where it was like 107 and dusty. That was hot as ****. Not sure how far west any of the streaming in tropical moisture will get, but it will at least get to SE/East Texas. Looks like the GFS wants to put a low down in the Bay of Campeche near the end of its run. Not sure if it's sensing an EPAC crossover or the end-game for the Gulf season (at least until Fall) with a system riding up the TX coast before possibly turning Northeast. IDK. 7 Day QPF doesn't have much for the Hill Country though I'm assuming it's underdoing rainfall along the coast. You'd have to think there will be 3-5" in the next few days in the Triangle and maybe as far inland as Houston.

[GCANE]

Wow, 4000 to 5000 CAPE over FL with mostly sunny skies.
Coming in from a pool of 6000 CAPE air located in the western portion of the Bahamas.

Should see a massive outbreak of thunderstorms this afternoon.
Debris will all push into the GOM overnight.

Going to be interesting tomorrow.

[GCANE]

That popped up quickly

[Frank P]

Last couple of hours the weather on the MS coast was about equivalent to that of a depression... copious amounts of rain blowing horizontally on the beach...

[Frank P]

That popped up quickly

That image certainly appears to bode well with the developing convection currently in the Gulf right now... hints of a broad circulation evident, with what looks to be some banding trying to form on the eastern side...

[MississippiWx]

Definitely a lot better spin on visible southeast of the tip of Louisiana. Banding features have formed to the east. Gotta give the NAM some credit here. It has been showing this consistently. If it had more time it would probably develop.

[Nimbus]

The mid gulf buoy is beginning to record declining surface pressure readings again.
Dropped from 29.99 yesterday down to 29.91 this morning at sunrise.
If it gets below about 29.87 overnight we might see some action.

[Frank P]

latest vis sat loop appears to spin up what looks like a small weak vortex... if nothing else interesting to see it from the loops...then again it could just be an illusion of the cloud formation.. who knows..

[lrak]

latest vis sat loop appears to spin up what looks like a small weak vortex... if nothing else interesting to see it from the loops...then again it could just be an illusion of the cloud formation.. who knows..

https://preview.ibb.co/jn43vK/GANIMt_Spvfy50.jpg

The frames after that one looks to me that it is at the surface....like you said "who knows.." It's been a while now and usually those mid level spins fly apart after a few frames. This one hasn't, I wonder if that storm to it's south did something?

[GCANE]

latest vis sat loop appears to spin up what looks like a small weak vortex... if nothing else interesting to see it from the loops...then again it could just be an illusion of the cloud formation.. who knows..

The frames after that one looks to me that it is at the surface....like you said "who knows.." It's been a while now and usually those mid level spins fly apart after a few frames. This one hasn't, I wonder if that storm to it's south did something?

I've been watching that too.
Looks like something may try and fire over it.

[NDG]

Still a fairly broad circulation over all with no particular defined COC it is what I see.

[Nimbus]

Ship in the area of the circulation reporting a surface pressure of 1012 MB

Buoy 42001 still near 29.91 inches so its a broad area of low surface pressure.
Still haven't reached 29.87 inches which was my benchmark, would likely see convection blooming below that.


SHIP S 2300 27.40 -91.30 125 316 120 4.1 - - - - - 29.88

[Steve]

We are getting a nice little night band. Not much rain - just some drizzle- but the cloud bands are thicker coming in from the ESE and it’s getting breezy and feels pretty great out tonight. Showers are starting to build offshore as the cloudtops cool. Mississippi Gulf Coast looks to get in on more incoming showers within the hour.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[northjaxpro]

Convection is on the increase late this morning off the Louisiana coast. I certainly would keep watching the area my Louisiana and Texas neighbors for sure!!

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder if it will be tagged as an Invest.

[Steve]

Maybe one low near shore farther east, but it looks like a main center of rotation is south of Lake Charles. Surface obs indicate a surface low there.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Rain has been south and west of here so far today, but there looks to be some nice bands rotating in.
https://www.weather.gov/lix/

It’s breezy with some rain on the way. Here is looking East/ESE.

[HeeBGBz]

We've been getting waves of rain. Like banding. Heavy sideways rain and then it drizzles for a bit. Been very tropical skies the last two days in Biloxi.

[GCANE]

Looks like most of the deep convection is firing along a shear axis from western tip of Cuba to the Miss Delta.

Bouys indicate a possible weak surface low

[wxman57]

Nothing at the surface in the Gulf but high pressure (relatively). Just an upper-level trof that will be moving inland tomorrow.

[Steve]

WxMan,

Is there not a hint of a surface rotation in the NW Gulf? This was what I was using.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/sfcplots/

Turning on visible is noted in that area. Maybe it’s higher up, but that coupled with the Tropical Tidbits surface plots looked to me that there was cyclonic surface turning. Maybe if it’s in the mid levels those wind obs are thunderstorm induced?