Steve wrote:wxGuy wrote:Steve wrote:
That was I think the one NAM had near Destin on land (the 4th spin). People dog on the NAM too much even though it’s often warranted. However, sometimes (like now and last year with Harvey), it leads to the truth.
Lower level (850mb) at 18z shows the center forming a bit east than before and coming together right along the LA Coast. Still looks like a TD candidate.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 83018&fh=9
I've been wanting to say this about the NAM, you hit it the nail on the head with that one.
I used NAM with harvey and it served me and my family well. we safely evacuated Harvey and avoided 5ft of water in my house. nam and 24hr precip charts made me leave on friday, august 25
Good call there. It was almost unreal the way it depicted what it said would happen. I mean sub 890 wasnt probably going to happen. And it was way down at 20N (or slightly south of that) which isn’t even in its 3km range. CMC had a decent call too if I remember while EC and GfS didn’t even have a closed low coming off the Yucatán. I know the NAM isn’t for the tropics and isn’t even always great in the subtropics or mid-latitudes. But it has its moments. And since literally every other model there is still isn’t showing any spins in the Gulf until the next wave, we have some development going on in front of our eyes, it deserves credit here.
For sure steve, I belive it was the CMC that picked it up nicely as well. All I know is the gulf is setting up for something, and some of the models are making since to me as where these waves are heading. IMO
Mimic still showing a funnel of moisture to NGOM.Only upper divergence ATTM
