Disturbed weather in the GOMEX

[SoupBone]

The gulf sure is unsettled today and looks to stay this way through next week. Quite a change from how it has looked for the majority of the summer:

Which is why that wave is so concerning. We've had a pretty stout high parked over us, bringing sweltering heat all summer.

[sphelps8681]

The gulf sure is unsettled today and looks to stay this way through next week. Quite a change from how it has looked for the majority of the summer:

Which is why that wave is so concerning. We've had a pretty stout high parked over us, bringing sweltering heat all summer.

I live in SE Texas and the water temp is 87 degrees off the coast. Does not make for a good situation when it comes to the tropical weather.

[lrak]

In about 5 days the EURO Ensembles show some action around the NW Gulf.https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/902-w-263-n/2018061512-240.html am I reading this website correctly?

[NDG]

In about 5 days the EURO Ensembles show some action around the NW Gulf.https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/902-w-263-n/2018061512-240.html am I reading this website correctly?

Here's the correct link, the date on your link is not current.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

[Steve]

At 23 hours so far, NAM has an arc from just offshore Santa Rosa County down into the gulf. That would be about the time of night the water storms would ease up before building back. We’ll see in about 15 minutes whether or not it wants to give it spin.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 83000&fh=5

[Steve]

45 hours, NAM has a double spin in the gulf. Look first near the south Texas Coast and then NW of Cuba for an apparently bigger ticket item. It has been the most bullish on a prerunner system over the last 9 or 10 runs. This was what I was posting about a couple nights ago that got moved to the lesser Antilles thread. The way NAM is consolidating it, not entirely out of the question it will show a td/ts hit on the Texas Coast by 84 hours. It’d be a backyard system if so.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 3000&fh=45

Edit to say there’s actually 3 spins. The first is a complex that forms right off the LA/TX border and moves into the central Texas Coast. (There’s even a 4th spin if you count the one starting around Destin and moving into southern AL and MS.). I wonder if it sees a switch on for enhancing factors.

?

[Steve]

Broad center (possibly 2) forms at 63 hours around 27N/89W. This NAM run is getting interesting. This is valid for 10am CDT Saturday.

[Steve]

This is valid 75 hours or 10pm Saturday night. Also, the previous post depicts vorticity at 700mb which is about 10,000 feet. This is 12 hours later and at 850mb so about 5,000 feet.



——————
Run ends with some 3.5 bar (also note the 50 knot flag) wind symbols offshore which is upper 30s. That’s 850 so whatever the conversion rate is to surface, it looks like at least close to gale/TS conditions are predicted by the NAM. There is no landfall by end of the run which is 7am Sunday. It is moving west at that time so a shot for a Texas TD/TS this weekend is there with the NAM 12km

[SoupBone]

I'm glad I've been watching this thread. Damn.

[GCANE]

Pretty decent 500mb and 700mb vort developed overnight south of the TX/LA border.
Apparent even on IR.

Watching if convection fires back up.
Could drive it to the surface if it does.

[GCANE]

Looks like it may be just enough shear to get a MCS going.
Upper troposphere has a slight anti-cyclonic flow with low PV.

If this fires off, it could go relatively quickly.

[GCANE]

Also saw one buoy reporting SSW winds.

[lrak]

No cain just rain please No fast spin up Ugh....I don't like the looks of the visible satellite this morning. It looks like upper high and a low level turning below.

[lrak]

In about 5 days the EURO Ensembles show some action around the NW Gulf.https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/902-w-263-n/2018061512-240.html am I reading this website correctly?

Here's the correct link, the date on your link is not current.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

thank you I will make sure the date is correct next time

[stormlover2013]

nam tries to spin it up

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 3012&fh=84

[Steve]

Here is some information from the NAM 12Z since it's really the only model that has been doing anything with this. Rainfall is through 7:00pm Sunday night. I was supposed to be going to Grand Isle on Sunday, but I'm not sure how wise that is unless I just want to sit around in the rain for a day.



Here is a look at the 850mb (5,000 feet) valid for Sunday at 7:00pm. Looks like some Tropical Storm winds off the coast, so it may actually achieve depression status if NAM isn't just blowing smoke.

[GCANE]

Winds at this buoy shifting to the west
26.091 N 93.758 W

Near a persistent cluster of towers that have been firing this morning.

[GCANE]

Maybe kicking up a notch.
Big shift in wind direction at this buoy.
25.897 N 89.668 W
Winds about 10 knots.

[Frank P]

looking at the latest Vis and IR sat loops the disturbed weather in the GOM looks as impressive (or unimpressive) as that of the Caribbean wave... Convection has continued to build all morning and early afternoon in the GOM... composite radars of the NGOM possibly hints of perhaps a broad low trying to form... maybe the NAM is on to something after all... gotten quite breezy on the MS Coast at the beach front house over the past 3 hours with a strong SE wind... has that really good something trying to form tropical feel to it... or it could be me prematurely speculating again ..

[wxGuy]

Is this from the pv streamer?