Strong Tropical Wave emerging from West Africa (Is INVEST 90L)

[USTropics]

ECMWF at 96 hours continues with a developing system off of Africa:

[OuterBanker]

Is this the blob around 10w now or the one around 0?

[cycloneye]

18z GFS is a bit stronger as it emerges the African Coast. (999 mbs)

[cycloneye]

Definitly the strongest run so far by GFS.

[cycloneye]

Is a Hurricane in this run.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane more stronger.

[cycloneye]

Below 980 mbs.

[cycloneye]

Has mantained as a bonifide Hurricane thru 192 hours.

[cycloneye]

Still not making a big recurving.

[blp]

Yep. Big changes on 18z to say the least. Much stronger and upper environment way different looks like it gets trapped a little by ridge. Not picked up quickly like other runs. Don't like that. Stronger does not always mean poleward.

[cycloneye]

It recurves for good almost reaching 60W still as a Hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
late Thursday or early Friday. Some development of this system is
possible over the weekend while it moves westward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[OuterBanker]

Looks like the GFS is taking the building Azores high into consideration with it's more west movement.

[gatorcane]

30% seems too low to me. I would go with 60% right now given strong model support. For example GFS ensembles day 4.

[Hammy]

30% seems too low to me. I would go with 60% right now given strong model support. For example GFS ensembles day 4.

[img]https://s8.postimg.cc/ygbopk2s5/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eatl_17.png

I guess they've been burned too many times by the models to have the confidence to go higher. We'll probably see orange or red for the five day by tomorrow once we've had a few more runs.

[Javlin]

Looks like the GFS is taking the building Azores high into consideration with it's more west movement.

Makes you wonder with the one's showing to follow with the weakness being filled in how much further W do the others go?

[cycloneye]

Wave has plenty of convection ready to emerge West Africa.The test will be when it hits the water to see if it mantains the convection or it weakens.

[AutoPenalti]

30% seems too low to me. I would go with 60% right now given strong model support. For example GFS ensembles day 4.

]https://s8.postimg.cc/ygbopk2s5/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eatl_17.png[]

I think NHC has it right where it should be, upper level pattern doesn't really favor rising air at the moment, if it's able to maintain the convection it has once it splashes then it should be tagged an orange.

[blp]

I was thinking the 18z GFS was too fast with development.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1034608177570959360

[FLpanhandle91]

00z GFS has no idea what it's doing with these vorts.