Strong Tropical Wave emerging from West Africa (Is INVEST 90L)

[cycloneye]

00z GFS again going with development. Expecting a NHC mention soon.

A little bit stronger in this 00z run.

[cycloneye]

Has lasted a liitle bit longer and more west in the 00z run.

[AtlanticWind]

TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Thursday. Some development of this system is possible over the
weekend while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[InRRwetrust]

I have no knowledge of FV3 (gfs) in regards to their accuracy if anyone can verify?
But they are not on their own so is it finally gametime?
*UPD* FV3: its all here

[GCANE]

Looks like max vort is at the 700 to 850 mb level.
Looks like it'll pull a lot of deep ITCZ moisture.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[GCANE]

54 hrs out when it comes off the coast.
Can't beat the setup.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like a weakness in the ridge is predicted on the GFS, lets see if it will verify.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Thursday. Some development of this system is possible over the
weekend while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila

[chris_fit]

All models that develop this recurve it out to sea pretty early

[SFLcane]

Could develope BUT thankfully has fish written all over it. May become a powerful hurricane in subtropics

[cycloneye]

On the 12z GFS it moves over the Cabo Verde Islands.2 Vortex competition.

[cycloneye]

Less strong than 00z run.

[Hurricaneman]

Less strong than 00z run.

And also still recurving which I think will be the final outcome

[gatorcane]

Less strong than 00z run.

And also still recurving which I think will be the final outcome

Seems like a huge weakness in the 500MB pattern across the subtropical Atlantic as shown by the global models such as the GFS. It does look like a recurve into the northern subtropical Atlantic is pretty likely but until this wave moves off and we see where it consolidates, we won't know for sure. Steering patterns beyond 5 days and certainly beyond 7 days are subject to large errors in the models as we have seen before.

[GCANE]

Looks like it'll hit a 355K PV Shredder Mid Field

[jlauderdal]

Looks like it'll hit a 355K PV Shredder Mid Field

fish

[LarryWx]

The only TC genesis I’m somewhat confident on is the one that nearly every model has and the one the Euro has had for many runs since mid last week, this one. Anything else that may form within the next 8 days somewhere in the Atlantic basin is a total guess imo.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Thursday. Some development of this system is possible over the
weekend while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[LarryWx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Thursday. Some development of this system is possible over the
weekend while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

I think 20% is too low for 5 days per pretty consistent and insistent recent model consensus. I think the chance is really more like 50%.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro has it again by 9/1. I don't know what model doesn't have it. So, a much better than 20% chance within 5 days imo.