#1451 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:08 pm
000
FXUS64 KEWX 281947
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
247 PM CDT Tue Aug 28 2018
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Hot conditions continue across South Central Texas this afternoon.
Better moisture is confined across the far eastern CWA. HRRR
depicting isolated convection developing through the late afternoon
into portions of Lavaca, Fayette, Lee, and Bastrop counties before
dissipating around sunset.
A weak inverted mid level trough, beneath the ridge to the northeast,
will move inland through the eastern half of the CWA on Wednesday.
Deeper moisture values are progged to reach as far inland as the I-35
corridor, with precipitable water values progged near 1.8-2.0 inches.
This should allow for convection to develop during the afternoon
through sunset across central and eastern areas of the CWA. Coverage
should overall remain isolated given weak nature of the mid level
forcing and sea-breeze.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
A flat ridge will become established Thursday through Saturday near
and north of the CWA. Models linger moisture and low chances for
isolated afternoon convection across mainly far eastern areas of the
CWA during this time. Otherwise warm temperatures continue to be
above normals.
Models continue to indicate slightly better chances for rainfall
early next week as a deeper fetch of moisture and inverted mid level
from the Gulf of Mexico move west, beneath the ridge to the north of
northeast. There is still some uncertainty on exact placement of the
ridge and thus uncertainty with westward extent inland this moisture
reaches, so at this time will continue to keep PoPs in 20-30% range.
Temperatures do appear to trend slightly cooler.
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