What is the worst case scenario Hurricane for Florida?

[PandaCitrus]

Looking back some of the early model tracks of Hurricane Irma, where the core didn't get disrupted over Cuba were apocalyptic. A Cat 5 hurricane moving NNW hitting south Miami-Dade and paralleling the entire east coast of Florida 20 or so miles inland with the strongest winds blanketing every coastal county from Miami to Jacksonville.

It would have conceivably involved the entire Southeast Florida metro of 6 Million getting hit with Cat 4/5 winds (Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, West Palm Beach), a direct hit on Lake Okeechobee potentially compromising the Hoover Dike causing catastrophic life threatening flooding and ecological damage to the Everglades, Cat 3/4 winds on the Treasure Coast through Cape Canaveral, direct hit on Metro Orlando with Cat 2/3 winds, direct hit on metro Jacksonville with Cat 1/2 winds.

These were some of the apocalyptic early model forecasts.

[Hurricaneman]

That would have been the worst outcome but fortunately Cuba got involved

[TheStormExpert]

Like I've mentioned before, Cuba was the saving grace for Florida. It also helped that the usual wind shear present in this region during La Niña seasons put it in a weakening state on approach to SW Florida. Still the costliest storm to date for Florida though.

[GeneratorPower]

The chances of a Cat 5 remaining at Cat 5 are poor if it’s skirting the coast. You’re not gonna get Cat 5 winds over 3 counties much less the entire east coast.

Worst case scenario for FL is still a 180 mph Cat 5 into Miami-Dade, Broward, or Palm Beach county. Especially if it had a large eye and not in the middle of an ERC. That would cause catastrophic damage and frankly is the worst case imaginable.

[LarryWx]

The GFS pressure of 887 mb in that run was way overdone, regardless.

[PandaCitrus]

The chances of a Cat 5 remaining at Cat 5 are poor if it’s skirting the coast. You’re not gonna get Cat 5 winds over 3 counties much less the entire east coast.

I'm not so sure about that. Let's say a 180mph hurricane hits South Dade going at 20mph NNW. It would be into Palm Beach County in about 3 hours. Hurricane Andrew strengthen as it approached land and continued for a period of time on land. It's definitely possible.

[toad strangler]

Florida is so at risk being the peninsula that it is. Can be clocked by a major from nearly every direction. Only the Capes of NC (recurve cow catcher) can cringe nearly as much as the S FL peninsula.

[GeneratorPower]

The chances of a Cat 5 remaining at Cat 5 are poor if it’s skirting the coast. You’re not gonna get Cat 5 winds over 3 counties much less the entire east coast.

I'm not so sure about that. Let's say a 180mph hurricane hits South Dade going at 20mph NNW. It would be into Palm Beach County in about 3 hours. Hurricane Andrew strengthen as it approached land and continued for a period of time on land. It's definitely possible.

It’s possible, just unlikely. Andrew was almost worst case. It was moving steadily west, not skirting the coast ingesting drier air and having weird interactions. It maintained Cat 5 because it crossed the Everglades which is not even land.

If we are talking about wind damage, worst case comes from the eyewall making a direct impact when completely intact and potent. Any time spent skirting land will by necessity take it down from 180 mph to more like 120-130. We’ve all seen it happen. The actual measured top wind speeds are always far lower than the NHCs advisory wind speed. Usually by a lot. Usually by two categories. The exception was Andrew and that’s because the eyewall didn’t have opportunity to linger and get disrupted.

By the time a 180mph Andrew redux made it to my side of the state in Fort Myers, it would be significantly less than 180. Thankfully.

[toad strangler]

The chances of a Cat 5 remaining at Cat 5 are poor if it’s skirting the coast. You’re not gonna get Cat 5 winds over 3 counties much less the entire east coast.

I'm not so sure about that. Let's say a 180mph hurricane hits South Dade going at 20mph NNW. It would be into Palm Beach County in about 3 hours. Hurricane Andrew strengthen as it approached land and continued for a period of time on land. It's definitely possible.

It’s possible, just unlikely. Andrew was almost worst case. It was moving steadily west, not skirting the coast ingesting drier air and having weird interactions. It maintained Cat 5 because it crossed the Everglades which is not even land.

If we are talking about wind damage, worst case comes from the eyewall making a direct impact when completely intact and potent. Any time spent skirting land will by necessity take it down from 180 mph to more like 120-130. We’ve all seen it happen. The actual measured top wind speeds are always far lower than the NHCs advisory wind speed. Usually by a lot. Usually by two categories. The exception was Andrew and that’s because the eyewall didn’t have opportunity to linger and get disrupted.

By the time a 180mph Andrew redux made it to my side of the state in Fort Myers, it would be significantly less than 180. Thankfully.

A cane the strength of Andrew was the beneficiary of a optimum environment. The Everglades didn’t hurt for sure but a well fed cyclone like this wouldn’t be dented much regardless of entry and exit points across the peninsula. There is zero elevation. Andrew was also moving along. That was a factor too for sure.

[BobHarlem]

Category 5 storm surge in Tampa.

[PandaCitrus]

The eastern coast Peak Irma scenario would probably have caused the most damage because of much higher population. But there were also many fears of a west coast peak surge scenario where Irma's eye is just offshore and the entire west coast from Naples to Tampa gets raked with 10-15 feet or more of storm surge. Potential catastrophic situation for life for anyone who didn't evacuate. Luckily, Cuba and hitting Marco Island and going inland dissipated the surge greatly.

[bamajammer4eva]

I think a 1935 Labor Day hurricane track would be the worst. Entire Peninsula on the East side or bad side. Only thing that could make it even worse would be if it took a NW turn after Tampa and headed for the more populated Pensacola or Panama city areas instead of the Big Bend region.

[caneman]

A Cat. 5 up thru Tampa Bay would be devastating. In order for that to happen it would need to move at least NNE. Not sure it would be able to sustain that moving in that direction unless it was moving North near the coast and them made a move at the Bay.

[Patrick99]

That was the worst case scenario, end of story. It's why everyone was so freaked out, when that one advisory came out with not a lot of time left until landfall.

They basically had Irma beating out the 35 Labor Day storm, intensifying to some absurd level in the Straits. I was seriously thinking about how I may have to pack up and try to make a new life somewhere else, because I wasn't sure what was going to be here, for a long long time.

Andrew was close, but I think it just wasn't a large enough storm from top to bottom to be a worst case. Shift Andrew a few hairs north into downtown Miami, and then maybe a direct New Orleans hit a couple days later, and maybe you've got it.

[Shell Mound]

There are a number of possible worst-case scenarios, depending on locale:

*A large, intense Cat-5 tracking from central Andros, Bahamas, to Golden Beach, FL, and thence to Egmont Key and just west of Tallahassee via St. Marks, with a path south of Lake Okeechobee. This scenario would place the eyewall over much of Miami/Fort Lauderdale, induce storm surge on Lake Okeechobee, put the strongest winds and peak surge over Tampa/St. Petersburg, and cause substantial wind- and surge-related damage to the Big Bend and the state capital. Track is a combination of 1926 and 1935: west-northwest over south-central FL, then north-northwest into the Big Bend. Landfall intensity: 150 knots / 900 mb (South FL).

*A weakening, large, post-ERC Cat-4 making landfall on Honeymoon Island, FL, with the peak winds and surge over Tampa/St. Petersburg, similar to the 1848 and 1921 major hurricanes. The system then tracks northeastward over Greater Orlando, passing just north of the city itself, and enters the Atlantic near New Smyrna Beach. Major storm surge and wind affects the west coast from Port Richey to Everglades City, while inland damage is considerable and widespread. Large southwesterly fetch generates a storm surge of 20-30’ (locally even greater) over MacDill AFB, Port of Tampa, and Boca Ciega Bay. Landfall intensity: 115 knots / 930 mb.

*A sprawling, slow-moving Cat-5 tracks north-northwestward over the lower FL Keys and up the peninsula, passing just west of Havana, Cuba, and Key West, the northeastern eyewall affecting both locations. Eye makes landfall over the Dry Tortugas and North Captiva Island, FL, before passing inland to the immediate west of Orlando and Jacksonville. Both coasts of FL experience hurricane-force gusts, storm surge devastates the Keys and SW mainland, and Orlando and Jacksonville experience severe wind- and surge-caused effects. Damage extends beyond FL, affecting coastal GA/Carolinas. Landfall intensity: 140 knots / 910 mb (Dry Tortugas).

[PandaCitrus]

Hurricane King's track closely resembles the worst case scenario from Irma last year but just a hair to the north. Direct hit on the City of Miami and North Dade heading NNW. Luckily for Florida it was only a Cat 3 back in 1950 and the population was much smaller than it is today.

[Shell Mound]

Hurricane King's track closely resembles the worst case scenario from Irma last year but just a hair to the north. Direct hit on the City of Miami and North Dade heading NNW. Luckily for Florida it was only a Cat 3 back in 1950 and the population was much smaller than it is today.

https://fcit.usf.edu/florida/maps/pages/12300/f12369/f12369.jpg

Actually, that map is a bit old and does not reflect the latest reanalysis of King's intensity, which assessed King to have been an intensifying Cat-4 (115 knots) at landfall in FL. While King was quite compact, it was deepening rapidly, embedded in high environmental pressures, and moving fairly rapidly at the time of landfall. The eye itself passed over Coconut Grove, with Downtown Miami in the northeast quadrant. There was extensive, tornado-like wind damage well inland across metropolitan Miami/Fort Lauderdale, owing to the intense but small inner core. Owing to the tight pressure gradient, hurricane-force winds affected the entire east coast of FL from the upper Keys to Jacksonville, causing severe beach erosion, and also impacted Greater Orlando, since the centre passed just to its west. Even as is, King would do quite a bit of damage, were it to recur today.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I think a 1935 Labor Day hurricane track would be the worst. Entire Peninsula on the East side or bad side. Only thing that could make it even worse would be if it took a NW turn after Tampa and headed for the more populated Pensacola or Panama city areas instead of the Big Bend region.

The worst case scenario would be the “Scrambles the Deathdealer” scenario drilled in the disaster simulator known as Metalocalypse.

On a more serious note the above scenario is pretty much the worst case for storm surge isn’t it? Doesn’t the west coast of Florida have greater vulnerability than the east coast?

I mean if you’re going for mega-disaster, an Ike level surge directed anywhere populated is a pretty good start.

[toad strangler]

Many mentions of a Cat 5 in these scenarios and sure, absolutely right a Cat 5 at any of these discussed tracks would meet “worst case” criteria. But, being where FL is and it sticking out like a sitting duck isn’t it surprising that Andrew and Labor Day 1935 are the only Cat 5 on record to effect the peninsula? Yes the shredder chain protects Florida on many occasions but there are so many other options for a monster to strike from that it is head scratching that no other bonafide 5 as hit. At least in recorded time.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Many mentions of a Cat 5 in these scenarios and sure, absolutely right a Cat 5 at any of these discussed tracks would meet “worst case” criteria. But, being where FL is and it sticking out like a sitting duck isn’t it surprising that Andrew and Labor Day 1935 are the only Cat 5 on record to effect the peninsula? Yes the shredder chain protects Florida on many occasions but there are so many other options for a monster to strike from that it is head scratching that no other bonafide 5 as hit. At least in recorded time.

I dunno when one considers how few storms stay at Cat 5 for long due to eyewall replacement cycles I don’t think their landfalls would be especially common on any place that isn’t an island.