CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3352
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1741 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:33 pm

If the HWRF were to verify, then Lane would have to weaken from 115 knots (now) to like 50 knots in 33 hours. Not going to happen.
0 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1742 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:35 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:If the HWRF were to verify, then Lane would have to weaken from 115 knots (now) to like 50 knots in 33 hours. Not going to happen.


Only way that happens is if it hits or nears land. Shear alone might weaken it to 75-80 kt or so, but that would still be a solid hurricane.
1 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1743 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:52 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:If the HWRF were to verify, then Lane would have to weaken from 115 knots (now) to like 50 knots in 33 hours. Not going to happen.


Only way that happens is if it hits or nears land. Shear alone might weaken it to 75-80 kt or so, but that would still be a solid hurricane.


remember Omar from 2008. Went from a cat 4 to a borderline cat 1/ts in 6 hours
3 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1744 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:54 pm

AJC3 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:
If it does develop, or even if it stays as it is now...might it tug Lane a little to the East at some point? Or at least keep it headed more northerly than west?


its quite possible. I made a large post on the previous page about it.
:)


Small point of clarification...the net effect on Lane's motion due to true binary interaction would be minimal/nil for the next couple days, if it occurs at all. Lane's circulation would be doing the vast majority of the tugging here, since binary interaction is dependent on circulation size/strength. What Aric is talking about, if I'm reading his post correctly, is that a more eastward track would be more of a function of "the blob" to its east eroding the ridge to its (and Lane's) north. So it wouldn't really be "tugging" the system, even though the net result would be similar (the more eastward track).

Carry on...



Yes, just a gernalized lowering of the pressure to the east and ne of lane as that feature rotates aroud in combination with the still present lee side troughing.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1745 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:56 pm

KHON tv station from Honolulu is live on facebook with wall to wall coverage for those interested. About to have a press conference.

https://www.facebook.com/khon2news/
0 likes   

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1746 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:15 pm

125 mph nnw @ 6 mph latest update
0 likes   

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1747 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:17 pm

Lane appears to be on a steady weakening trend now, prayers for everyone in Hawaii
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1748 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:17 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:125 mph nnw @ 6 mph latest update


Lane is the worst looking on satellite 125 mph major hurricane...
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1749 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:21 pm

0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1750 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:27 pm

Blown Away wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:125 mph nnw @ 6 mph latest update


Lane is the worst looking on satellite 125 mph major hurricane...



Hopefully it looks even worse by the time it gets closer to the islands. They are going to have enough to deal with concerning the rain with already 20 inches in some areas, With much much more to come.
1 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1751 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:28 pm

starting to think that Harvey's rain record may be in jeopardy
4 likes   

User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1033
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1752 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:29 pm

Seems as though Lane's convection is building into the shear. Shouldn't this storm be northeasterly lopsided?
1 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1753 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:31 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Seems as though Lane's convection is building into the shear. Shouldn't this storm be northeasterly lopsided?


Shear mostly seems to be coming from the mid-levels judging by cloud lines towards the south.
2 likes   

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1754 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:33 pm

Pretty cool what they are going to do. At 4pm Hawaii time there they are going to sound the outside warning system...at that time, all the busses will run from 4pm to 6pm free of charge to everyone who wants to evacuate and take them to evacuation centers. Also seeing in the KHON2 News facebook chat where there are already power outages reported. Im afraid it may be a long few days ahead for some of the residents even if they aren't directly impacted with the core of the storm.
1 likes   

User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1033
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1755 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:41 pm

I do think Lane will briefly organize here in the next few hours. Convection is trying to fire north of the center.
1 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15980
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1756 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:46 pm

I'm worried about Lane splitting the Euro and GFS solutions. That would bring it really close to Oahu.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

OahuWahine
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 60
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:03 am
Location: Mililani, HI

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1757 Postby OahuWahine » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:57 pm

I have what might be a stupid question but keep in mind I've never had to board up for a hurricane before. We don't have enough plywood to board up all the windows and the stores are all out. We have large picture windows in our living room, but they are in the front of the house which faces to the north. Two of the bedrooms have large windows that face to the south toward Pearl Harbor. I'm thinking I need to use the wood on the bedroom windows.
1 likes   

User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1033
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1758 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:02 pm

OahuWahine wrote:I have what might be a stupid question but keep in mind I've never had to board up for a hurricane before. We don't have enough plywood to board up all the windows and the stores are all out. We have large picture windows in our living room, but they are in the front of the house which faces to the north. Two of the bedrooms have large windows that face to the south toward Pearl Harbor. I'm thinking I need to use the wood on the bedroom windows.


So in Oahu, given the GFS and Euro solutions, most of your winds will have a northerly and westerly component to them. Southerly winds, as it stands, will not be a factor for the island of Oahu until Lane passes two your south in about 48 hours. I would make sure any West and North facing windows are boarded up.
1 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1759 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:03 pm

I think the buoy confirms what the radar has been showing, that the southern eyewall is gone, the buoy has not reported any hurricane force winds after eye passed over it, shear is finally affecting it, IMO.

Image

Code: Select all

MM   DD   TIME
(HAST)   WDIR   WSPD
kts   GST
kts   WVHT
ft   DPD
sec   APD
sec   MWD   PRES
in   PTDY
in   ATMP
°F   WTMP
°F   DEWP
°F   SAL
psu   VIS
nmi   TIDE
ft
08   23   2:10 pm   WSW   17.5   25.3   -   -   -   -   29.28   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   2:00 pm   WSW   17.5   23.3   -   -   -   -   29.26   +0.81   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   1:50 pm   WSW   17.5   25.3   21.7   11   8.1   W   29.24   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   1:40 pm   WSW   21.4   31.1   21.7   -   8.1   W   29.19   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   1:20 pm   WSW   23.3   31.1   -   -   -   -   29.13   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   1:10 pm   WSW   21.4   31.1   -   -   -   -   29.11   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   1:00 pm   WSW   23.3   33.0   -   -   -   -   29.09   +0.82   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   12:50 pm   SW   25.3   33.0   23.0   9   8.1   W   29.06   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   12:40 pm   SW   25.3   33.0   23.0   -   8.1   W   29.01   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   12:30 pm   SW   25.3   33.0   -   -   -   -   28.97   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   12:20 pm   WSW   25.3   31.1   -   -   -   -   28.92   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   12:10 pm   WSW   27.2   35.0   -   -   -   -   28.87   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   12:00 pm   WSW   27.2   35.0   -   -   -   -   28.79   +0.44   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   11:50 am   WSW   29.1   35.0   16.1   9   7.3   W   28.72   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   11:40 am   WSW   31.1   38.9   16.1   -   7.3   W   28.64   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   11:30 am   WSW   29.1   42.7   -   -   -   -   28.57   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   11:20 am   WSW   9.7   29.1   -   -   -   -   28.53   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   11:10 am   WSW   3.9   23.3   -   -   -   -   28.50   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   11:00 am   WSW   3.9   15.5   -   -   -   -   28.45   -0.42   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   10:50 am   WSW   1.9   11.7   17.1   10   7.6   NNE   28.41   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   10:40 am   WSW   1.9   5.8   17.1   -   7.6   NNE   28.36   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   10:30 am   W   1.9   5.8   -   -   -   -   28.34   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   10:20 am   W   1.9   7.8   -   -   -   -   28.31   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   10:10 am   W   1.9   5.8   -   -   -   -   28.27   -   -   -   -   -   -   -
08   23   10:00 am   WNW   3.9   5.8   -   -   -   -   28.26   -0.87   -   -   -   -   -   


https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=51002
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6059
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1760 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:06 pm

00Z intensity is set to 105 kt/956 mb, which appears to be buoy pressure + KZC. Lane will also cross 40 ACE at 06Z (it's at 39.54 now).
2 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests