CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
If the HWRF were to verify, then Lane would have to weaken from 115 knots (now) to like 50 knots in 33 hours. Not going to happen.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:If the HWRF were to verify, then Lane would have to weaken from 115 knots (now) to like 50 knots in 33 hours. Not going to happen.
Only way that happens is if it hits or nears land. Shear alone might weaken it to 75-80 kt or so, but that would still be a solid hurricane.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
CrazyC83 wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:If the HWRF were to verify, then Lane would have to weaken from 115 knots (now) to like 50 knots in 33 hours. Not going to happen.
Only way that happens is if it hits or nears land. Shear alone might weaken it to 75-80 kt or so, but that would still be a solid hurricane.
remember Omar from 2008. Went from a cat 4 to a borderline cat 1/ts in 6 hours
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
AJC3 wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:SunnyThoughts wrote:
If it does develop, or even if it stays as it is now...might it tug Lane a little to the East at some point? Or at least keep it headed more northerly than west?
its quite possible. I made a large post on the previous page about it.
Small point of clarification...the net effect on Lane's motion due to true binary interaction would be minimal/nil for the next couple days, if it occurs at all. Lane's circulation would be doing the vast majority of the tugging here, since binary interaction is dependent on circulation size/strength. What Aric is talking about, if I'm reading his post correctly, is that a more eastward track would be more of a function of "the blob" to its east eroding the ridge to its (and Lane's) north. So it wouldn't really be "tugging" the system, even though the net result would be similar (the more eastward track).
Carry on...
Yes, just a gernalized lowering of the pressure to the east and ne of lane as that feature rotates aroud in combination with the still present lee side troughing.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
KHON tv station from Honolulu is live on facebook with wall to wall coverage for those interested. About to have a press conference.
https://www.facebook.com/khon2news/
https://www.facebook.com/khon2news/
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- Bocadude85
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Lane appears to be on a steady weakening trend now, prayers for everyone in Hawaii
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- Blown Away
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
SunnyThoughts wrote:125 mph nnw @ 6 mph latest update
Lane is the worst looking on satellite 125 mph major hurricane...
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
25 frame live visible loop
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=18&lon=-159&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&info=vis&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=yellow
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=18&lon=-159&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&info=vis&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=yellow
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Blown Away wrote:SunnyThoughts wrote:125 mph nnw @ 6 mph latest update
Lane is the worst looking on satellite 125 mph major hurricane...
Hopefully it looks even worse by the time it gets closer to the islands. They are going to have enough to deal with concerning the rain with already 20 inches in some areas, With much much more to come.
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- FLpanhandle91
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Seems as though Lane's convection is building into the shear. Shouldn't this storm be northeasterly lopsided?
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
FLpanhandle91 wrote:Seems as though Lane's convection is building into the shear. Shouldn't this storm be northeasterly lopsided?
Shear mostly seems to be coming from the mid-levels judging by cloud lines towards the south.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Pretty cool what they are going to do. At 4pm Hawaii time there they are going to sound the outside warning system...at that time, all the busses will run from 4pm to 6pm free of charge to everyone who wants to evacuate and take them to evacuation centers. Also seeing in the KHON2 News facebook chat where there are already power outages reported. Im afraid it may be a long few days ahead for some of the residents even if they aren't directly impacted with the core of the storm.
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- FLpanhandle91
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
I do think Lane will briefly organize here in the next few hours. Convection is trying to fire north of the center.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
I'm worried about Lane splitting the Euro and GFS solutions. That would bring it really close to Oahu.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
I have what might be a stupid question but keep in mind I've never had to board up for a hurricane before. We don't have enough plywood to board up all the windows and the stores are all out. We have large picture windows in our living room, but they are in the front of the house which faces to the north. Two of the bedrooms have large windows that face to the south toward Pearl Harbor. I'm thinking I need to use the wood on the bedroom windows.
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- FLpanhandle91
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
OahuWahine wrote:I have what might be a stupid question but keep in mind I've never had to board up for a hurricane before. We don't have enough plywood to board up all the windows and the stores are all out. We have large picture windows in our living room, but they are in the front of the house which faces to the north. Two of the bedrooms have large windows that face to the south toward Pearl Harbor. I'm thinking I need to use the wood on the bedroom windows.
So in Oahu, given the GFS and Euro solutions, most of your winds will have a northerly and westerly component to them. Southerly winds, as it stands, will not be a factor for the island of Oahu until Lane passes two your south in about 48 hours. I would make sure any West and North facing windows are boarded up.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
I think the buoy confirms what the radar has been showing, that the southern eyewall is gone, the buoy has not reported any hurricane force winds after eye passed over it, shear is finally affecting it, IMO.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=51002

Code: Select all
MM DD TIME
(HAST) WDIR WSPD
kts GST
kts WVHT
ft DPD
sec APD
sec MWD PRES
in PTDY
in ATMP
°F WTMP
°F DEWP
°F SAL
psu VIS
nmi TIDE
ft
08 23 2:10 pm WSW 17.5 25.3 - - - - 29.28 - - - - - - -
08 23 2:00 pm WSW 17.5 23.3 - - - - 29.26 +0.81 - - - - - -
08 23 1:50 pm WSW 17.5 25.3 21.7 11 8.1 W 29.24 - - - - - - -
08 23 1:40 pm WSW 21.4 31.1 21.7 - 8.1 W 29.19 - - - - - - -
08 23 1:20 pm WSW 23.3 31.1 - - - - 29.13 - - - - - - -
08 23 1:10 pm WSW 21.4 31.1 - - - - 29.11 - - - - - - -
08 23 1:00 pm WSW 23.3 33.0 - - - - 29.09 +0.82 - - - - - -
08 23 12:50 pm SW 25.3 33.0 23.0 9 8.1 W 29.06 - - - - - - -
08 23 12:40 pm SW 25.3 33.0 23.0 - 8.1 W 29.01 - - - - - - -
08 23 12:30 pm SW 25.3 33.0 - - - - 28.97 - - - - - - -
08 23 12:20 pm WSW 25.3 31.1 - - - - 28.92 - - - - - - -
08 23 12:10 pm WSW 27.2 35.0 - - - - 28.87 - - - - - - -
08 23 12:00 pm WSW 27.2 35.0 - - - - 28.79 +0.44 - - - - - -
08 23 11:50 am WSW 29.1 35.0 16.1 9 7.3 W 28.72 - - - - - - -
08 23 11:40 am WSW 31.1 38.9 16.1 - 7.3 W 28.64 - - - - - - -
08 23 11:30 am WSW 29.1 42.7 - - - - 28.57 - - - - - - -
08 23 11:20 am WSW 9.7 29.1 - - - - 28.53 - - - - - - -
08 23 11:10 am WSW 3.9 23.3 - - - - 28.50 - - - - - - -
08 23 11:00 am WSW 3.9 15.5 - - - - 28.45 -0.42 - - - - - -
08 23 10:50 am WSW 1.9 11.7 17.1 10 7.6 NNE 28.41 - - - - - - -
08 23 10:40 am WSW 1.9 5.8 17.1 - 7.6 NNE 28.36 - - - - - - -
08 23 10:30 am W 1.9 5.8 - - - - 28.34 - - - - - - -
08 23 10:20 am W 1.9 7.8 - - - - 28.31 - - - - - - -
08 23 10:10 am W 1.9 5.8 - - - - 28.27 - - - - - - -
08 23 10:00 am WNW 3.9 5.8 - - - - 28.26 -0.87 - - - - -
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=51002
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
00Z intensity is set to 105 kt/956 mb, which appears to be buoy pressure + KZC. Lane will also cross 40 ACE at 06Z (it's at 39.54 now).
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