WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/lIEPBum.gif[/ig]

T6.5 near T7.0. I'd say this is getting close to Cat 5 if it wasn't about to ERC.

Sheesh

Take back what I said eye was WMG like I thought it was for some reason.

It's close though. 7.34ºC at 0300Z.

[CrazyC83]

The eye is so tiny that it is not being resolved well.

I'd personally estimate it at 115 kt.

[Alyono]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 04.08.2018

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 130.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.08.2018 0 14.2N 130.3W 961 72
1200UTC 04.08.2018 12 14.5N 132.2W 963 71
0000UTC 05.08.2018 24 14.7N 134.7W 961 72
1200UTC 05.08.2018 36 14.7N 137.1W 965 69
0000UTC 06.08.2018 48 14.8N 140.0W 970 65
1200UTC 06.08.2018 60 15.0N 143.2W 972 64
0000UTC 07.08.2018 72 15.3N 146.6W 973 62
1200UTC 07.08.2018 84 15.6N 150.0W 976 60
0000UTC 08.08.2018 96 15.6N 153.5W 976 64
1200UTC 08.08.2018 108 15.6N 156.8W 977 63
0000UTC 09.08.2018 120 15.8N 160.2W 978 59
1200UTC 09.08.2018 132 16.2N 162.7W 983 62
0000UTC 10.08.2018 144 17.1N 165.0W 982 61

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS takes Hector almost to Japan. This may break some serious duration records.

[Kingarabian]

Stronger ridge on the 00z Euro. It's practically flying:

[USTropics]

The 00z GFS has no trough connection, Hector literally plows westward the entire run towards Japan:

[Kingarabian]

00z GEFS shifted a bit north compared to its 18z run. I believe it's the members having Hector the strongest influencing this.

[Kingarabian]

04/0600 UTC 14.3N 131.2W T5.5/5.5 HECTOR -- East Pacific

[Kingarabian]

Not sure how this was a T5.5:

[Twisted-core]

The best tool in the box thinks there will be a substantial conection with a upper-trough.



https://imgur.com/MTwdmwA

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018
200 AM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018

Hector has maintained an impressive satellite presentation so far
this morning. The clear eye of the major hurricane is surrounded by
a ring of cloud tops colder than -75 deg C and its outflow has
become well established in all quadrants. Recent satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT are in good agreement
and support an initial intensity of 105 kt.

The hurricane will remain in a favorable environment for the next 48
to 72 h, so the NHC forecast keeps Hector as a fairly steady-state
major hurricane, close to the HWRF model. In reality, while recent
SSMIS and AMSU microwave data do not suggest that another eyewall
replacement cycle is imminent, it would not be surprising if one did
occur sometime in the next couple of days, causing the cyclone to at
least briefly weaken. Hector's small size could also make it
particularly prone to short-term fluctuations in intensity, up or
down, like the one observed yesterday. By day 4, Hector is forecast
to move over somewhat cooler SSTs, and into a drier environment, so
gradual weakening is anticipated. Confidence in this portion of the
forecast is fairly low since there large spread in the intensity
guidance.

Hector has continued to move steadily westward, and the initial
motion estimate is 270/10 kt. A large subtropical ridge to the
north should steer the hurricane generally westward through the
entire forecast period. There is still uncertainty as to how much
latitude Hector will gain in the 2 to 4 day time frame due to a
slight weakness in the ridge, however the spread of the track
guidance has generally decreased since yesterday. The official
track forecast has been nudged very slightly northward, in line with
the latest consensus guidance, but overall is very similar to the
previous advisory.

There is the potential for Hector to affect portions of the Hawaiian
Islands by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to specify
the magnitude of any impacts or where they could occur. This is a
good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place. For additional information on any
potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to
products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 14.3N 131.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.3N 133.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 14.5N 135.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 14.7N 137.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 15.0N 140.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 16.0N 145.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 16.5N 151.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 17.0N 157.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[euro6208]

As mention many times, what a year it has been for Japan if the GFS run becomes a reality.

Record heat wave which is still ongoing...tremendous flooding...from the last 2 months.

Back to back to back TC's with Shanshan expected to miss but barely.

And now Hector? I wonder what the next 4 months will bring!

[Dylan]

0z EURO ensemble members have Hector as far south as the Mariana Islands with the northern solutions showing fish. Nonetheless, a plurality of EPS members have Hector in the Western Pacific in 15 days.

[Ntxw]

I'm thinking the NHC has been playing conservative with Hector. It has a very small eye and systems like these tends to be missed/underestimated when they have such compact cores with tiny, but warm, eyes. Visible imagery in a few will be pretty if he maintains form. We could still be watching Hector 2 weeks from now as he tries to challenge record ACE worldwide.

[Dylan]

I'm thinking the NHC has been playing conservative with Hector. It has a very small eye and systems like these tends to be missed/underestimated when they have such compact cores with tiny, but warm, eyes. Visible imagery in a few will be pretty if he maintains form. We could still be watching Hector 2 weeks from now as he tries to challenge record ACE worldwide.

Can you share the link of the GOES floater page you're using for Hector? The link isn't on the typical floater page.

[Ntxw]

I'm thinking the NHC has been playing conservative with Hector. It has a very small eye and systems like these tends to be missed/underestimated when they have such compact cores with tiny, but warm, eyes. Visible imagery in a few will be pretty if he maintains form. We could still be watching Hector 2 weeks from now as he tries to challenge record ACE worldwide.

Can you share the link of the GOES floater page you're using for Hector? The link isn't on the typical floater page.

Sure thing, it's a little outdated but it gets you what you need on current systems. It tends to have trouble showing invests.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters-old.html

[Eric Webb]

0z EPS for Hector. Unanimous agreement that he'll miss Hawaii to the south and most members bring him into the Western Pacific basin fully intact as a hurricane between about 15-20N. If he loses latitude west of the dateline for a while, then all bets are off. There's only been 2 storms that were at least of tropical storm intensity on their entire trek from the EP to the WP basin; John (1994) & Dora (1999), Hector could become only the 3rd storm to do this.

[Dylan]

0z EPS for Hector. Unanimous agreement that he'll miss Hawaii to the south and most members bring him into the Western Pacific basin fully intact as a hurricane between about 15-20N. If he loses latitude west of the dateline for a while, then all bets are off. There's only been 2 storms that were at least of tropical storm intensity on their entire trek from the EP to the WP basin; John (1994) & Dora (1999), Hector could become only the 3rd storm to do this.

To add to that, it looks as though Hector will run into gradually warmer SST's as it passes south of Hawaii towards the International Date Line. Hector is a very small tropical cyclone at the moment, but I'm very interested to see the structural evolution of it over the next 2-3 weeks.

[Eric Webb]

0z EPS for Hector. Unanimous agreement that he'll miss Hawaii to the south and most members bring him into the Western Pacific basin fully intact as a hurricane between about 15-20N. If he loses latitude west of the dateline for a while, then all bets are off. There's only been 2 storms that were at least of tropical storm intensity on their entire trek from the EP to the WP basin; John (1994) & Dora (1999), Hector could become only the 3rd storm to do this.

To add to that, it looks as though Hector will run into gradually warmer SST's as it passes south of Hawaii towards the International Date Line. Hector is a very small tropical cyclone at the moment, but I'm very interested to see the structural evolution of it over the next 2-3 weeks.

Yeah I'm really intrigued to see what Hector does when he reaches the TC "holy land" that is the West Pacific Warmpool near the dateline.

[Eric Webb]

If Hector follows the NHC forecast thru the next 5 days it will have accrued about 30 ACE units by that time, what happens after this is up for debate but w/ SSTs climbing near/above 29C in its potential path there's certainly some potential for Hector to become even more intense and pile on more ACE more quickly.