WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 90 kts.

EP, 10, 2018080318, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1293W, 90, 975, HU

[Kingarabian]

For some more visualization, here are the trough's rolling in the Northern Pacific. It's pretty straightforward, the STR will keep Hector moving west and south of the Islands unless it's weakened.



I'm feeling more comfortable with today's model runs, especially since there is a consensus. Howeber, Hector is forecast to be south of the Big Island by TAU 144, which is almost a week from now. A lot can still change.

[Yellow Evan]

03/1800 UTC 14.2N 129.4W T5.5/5.5 HECTOR -- East Pacific

Too high I think

[Yellow Evan]

Nevermind eye went to OW for a frame

TXPZ21 KNES 031822
TCSENP

A. 10E (HECTOR)

B. 03/1800Z

C. 14.2N

D. 129.4W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...RAGGED OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B RING AND EMBEDDED IN LG
YIELDS E#=5.0. AND +0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT. DT=5.5. MET AND PT=5.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro takes Hector west of 180.

[1900hurricane]

12Z ECMWF crosses Hector over into the WPac at the end of the run, moving almost due west the entire way.

[Yellow Evan]

Worth noting that the 12z ECMWF brings this very close to Johnston Atoll.

[CrazyC83]

Shades of Ioke? This could really have an enormous ACE in the end...

[Ntxw]

12z suite overall has caught the attention of the WPAC posters I'm sure. Been awhile since a good triple cross.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 AUG 2018 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 14:10:48 N Lon : 129:21:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 992.6mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 4.2 5.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 9 km

Center Temp : -14.8C Cloud Region Temp : -56.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Kingarabian]

Shades of Ioke? This could really have an enormous ACE in the end...

When will it be a good time to start the requiried "EPAC should be getting those ACE units" debate

[Ntxw]

Shades of Ioke? This could really have an enormous ACE in the end...

I was thinking more of John 1994, maybe more west, with it's earlier origin in the EPAC->CPAC->WPAC. But either way ACE (assuming intensity) raker like you said.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HECTOR EP102018 08/03/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 92 93 92 89 84 80 80 79 75 74 75
V (KT) LAND 90 91 92 93 92 89 84 80 80 79 75 74 75
V (KT) LGEM 90 91 91 90 89 87 84 81 78 76 74 73 71
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 3 2 4 2 3 8 4 7 4 3 3 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 1 -2 0 -2 1 1 3 6 6
SHEAR DIR 21 55 41 25 29 296 343 350 51 114 326 328 25
SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 131 133 133 134 140 137 135 134 132 129 133
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -51.8 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7
700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 59 60 56 53 54 52 51 48 43 41
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 20 21 21
850 MB ENV VOR 1 3 19 24 30 50 46 50 44 38 16 22 22
200 MB DIV 16 26 21 16 15 13 -6 -12 26 25 -15 -2 -13
700-850 TADV -8 -7 -7 -5 -1 -1 -2 -2 -5 1 0 -1 1
LAND (KM) 2126 2196 2268 2350 2365 2139 1918 1656 1371 1078 802 529 325
LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.0
LONG(DEG W) 129.3 130.3 131.3 132.3 133.3 135.5 137.6 140.0 142.6 145.3 147.9 150.6 153.2
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 13 12
HEAT CONTENT 8 6 5 7 6 9 13 9 7 19 6 3 7

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -19. -22. -26. -27. -28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 4. 5. 5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -10. -10. -11. -15. -16. -15.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.1 129.3

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/03/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.08 0.6
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.90 5.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.04 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 1.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 486.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.29 -1.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 22.3% 17.1% 15.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.6% 5.9% 4.3% 3.1% 1.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 6.2% 9.5% 7.1% 6.0% 4.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS: 75.0% 67.0% 40.0% 40.0% 30.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/03/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWx/status/1025462182279094272




 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWx/status/1025463023421612032

[1900hurricane]

I can think of only one (EDIT: two), Oliwa '97.



Also Halola '15.

[Kingarabian]

All the EPS members keep this south of Hawaii.

[Kazmit]

All the EPS members keep this south of Hawaii.

Yes, a better trend today. Hopefully no more "windshield wiping" goes on and the models agree on this solution, but it's still a few days from when we'll know for sure.

[Alyono]

if this were to RI, which the models do not expect, then I could see a track a bit farther north due to a stronger response to the upper trough. Models are not showing much of an intensification, while the hurricane models, which make this very intense, are north of the other models

[Ntxw]

[LarryWx]

I can think of only one (EDIT: two), Oliwa '97.



Also Halola '15.

Fwiw (likely not much), those two were both during a super El Nino (1997-8 and 2015-6).

[Kingarabian]

if this were to RI, which the models do not expect, then I could see a track a bit farther north due to a stronger response to the upper trough. Models are not showing much of an intensification, while the hurricane models, which make this very intense, are north of the other models

Yeah I was thinking about this scenario. Currently it's intensifying more than what the models are showing. A deeper storm will feel that first trough more, and it possibly can slow down to the point the 2nd trough catches it.