WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

01/1800 UTC 13.7N 120.7W T3.0/3.0 HECTOR -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 AUG 2018 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 13:54:24 N Lon : 120:50:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.6mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 2.6 2.6

Center Temp : -47.6C Cloud Region Temp : -51.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in LT GRAY

[Alyono]

only the GFS based guidance does much of anything with this now

[Yellow Evan]

FV3 has a Big Island hit... the only model that doesn't keep this far south.

[Kingarabian]

only the GFS based guidance does much of anything with this now

That's interesting because upper level conditions continue to improve. Low shear is now up to 20N and extends past 140W.

[Alyono]

only the GFS based guidance does much of anything with this now

That's interesting because upper level conditions continue to improve. Low shear is now up to 20N and extends past 140W.

we have not had a good scatterometer pass yet for this. Even SCATSAT has managed somehow to miss this. I wonder if this is affecting the model initialization

[Ntxw]

Euro (assuming its low bias at the lower levels) would be south and more like John track. One of those big ACE rakers we haven't seen in awhile for the basin

[Kingarabian]

Euro (assuming its low bias at the lower levels) would be south and more like John track. One of those big ACE rakers we haven't seen in awhile for the basin

Definitely will make up for lost July ACE.

HWRF makes this a strong Cat.4:

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF has Johnston Atoll in the bullseye.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 45 kts.

EP, 10, 2018080118, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1207W, 45, 1002, TS

[Kingarabian]

18z Best Track up to 45 kts.

EP, 10, 2018080118, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1207W, 45, 1002, TS

That's stronger than what the Euro and UKMET have modeled out in 24 hours. And based on its structure today, we might have to put aside the Euro/UKMET guidance for a little while.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HECTOR EP102018 08/01/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 55 59 64 67 69 72 73 72 71 71
V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 55 59 64 67 69 72 73 72 71 71
V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 55 57 62 66 72 78 80 79 77 74
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 14 15 17 15 14 10 5 7 7 15 11 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -2 -2 -6 -4 -4 -4 -2 -2 -1 4
SHEAR DIR 51 54 57 53 58 62 43 12 3 308 321 327 359
SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.3 27.0 27.4 27.0 27.2 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 140 137 134 134 133 138 135 138 134 135 131
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 64 63 61 59 59 59 58 58 57 56 53 57 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 16 16 17 20 21 22 23 23
850 MB ENV VOR -12 -5 2 -4 -8 14 13 26 30 52 36 40 32
200 MB DIV 45 71 66 46 44 13 41 42 -3 1 -14 15 -5
700-850 TADV -3 -5 -5 -4 -4 -4 -8 -9 -3 -3 -5 -3 1
LAND (KM) 1507 1553 1604 1681 1762 1950 2131 2322 2238 2014 1811 1629 1460
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.2 13.9 13.5 13.4 13.7
LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.7 122.7 123.9 125.0 127.3 129.6 132.0 134.5 136.8 139.0 140.9 142.5
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 11 10 10 15 25 23 7 6 4 13 11 15 15

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3.
PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 14. 19. 22. 24. 27. 28. 27. 26. 26.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.8 120.7

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/01/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.53 4.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.26 2.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 3.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 3.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.59 -2.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 20.9% 20.6% 14.1% 9.2% 16.8% 17.3% 8.6%
Logistic: 3.9% 8.4% 3.6% 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% 3.8% 3.5%
Bayesian: 0.4% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 5.5% 10.5% 8.2% 5.4% 3.6% 6.1% 7.0% 4.1%
DTOPS: 39.0% 29.0% 15.0% 8.0% 3.0% 23.0% 9.0% 35.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/01/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018

Hector continues to become better organized. Microwave data
indicate that the low- and mid-level centers are now closer
together, and visible satellite imagery is showing more curved
banding features. Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB and the CIMSS
ADT are all 45 kt, so that will be the initial intensity. Hector
should continue to intensify for the next day or so in a favorable
environment of light-to-moderate shear and warm SSTs. However, a
surge of northeasterly upper-level flow is forecast to impact the
cyclone on Thursday, which will likely arrest the strengthening
trend. This stronger flow should abate late Friday or Saturday,
leading to further intensification. The latest forecast is below
the consensus at shorter range, then above the consensus at long
range. There remains the potential that the intensity forecast is
too low at days 4 and 5, but the model guidance is too divergent
with the upper-level environment at that time to have confidence in
raising the forecast.

Scatterometer and microwave data are showing the system moving
westward at 10 kt. Hector should continue moving westward overnight
and then even move a little south-of-west for the next few days
as the subtropical ridge builds to the north and west of the
cyclone. The biggest change from 6 hours ago is that the guidance
is faster at long range due to the tropical cyclone staying
separate from an upper-level trough in the northwestward part of
the eastern Pacific. The latest NHC forecast follows the speedier
trend of the guidance, but is not as fast as the ECMWF or UKMET
models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 13.8N 121.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 14.1N 122.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 14.4N 125.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 14.5N 127.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 14.5N 129.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 14.1N 134.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 13.5N 139.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 13.5N 143.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

Most EPS members keep this a bit south of Hawaii but a little further north than the operational.

[Kingarabian]

It's going to keep reshaping its CDO until the shear abates some:

[CrazyC83]

To threaten Hawaii, this will have to thread the needle and then turn at the right time. If it reaches the latitude of the Big Island (or even much about 15N) before 155W, it will likely die a very quick death.

At what point would we get Recon, around 145W?

[Kazmit]

18z GFS still much further north than most ensembles.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS still much further north than most ensembles.

Yeah. Hopefully the 00z GFS run fully backs off. It's rounding the big island.

[Kingarabian]

Not the best IR presentation, but a warm spot/eye feature is coming up and it's more evident on visible imagery:



https://i.imgur.com/MIvBLqU.gif


Close to a 3.5.

[CrazyC83]

Not the best IR presentation, but a warm spot/eye feature is coming up and it's more evident on visible imagery:



https://i.imgur.com/MIvBLqU.gif


Close to a 3.5.

50 kt would be my best intensity estimate.