WPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

A center seems to be evident at 11N 110W where shower activity is becoming more stacked. Development chances are rising if you ask me.

A low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 800 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula are showing some signs of organization.
However, the system appears to lack a well-defined center at this
time. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could
form while the disturbance moves generally westward at around 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Kingarabian]

SAB supports an upgrade to TD:

[Div] 30/2345 UTC 12.2N 112.6W T1.5/1.5 93E -- East Pacific [/Div

This might be a win for the intensity models over the global models.

[cycloneye]

SHIP close to cat 2.

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932018 07/31/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 51 60 68 74 78 82 80
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 51 60 68 74 78 82 80
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 41 46 52 59 66 73
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 4 6 9 8 4 5 4 6 7 7 2 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 4 4 4 5 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 38 56 57 60 77 68 80 69 79 92 95 75 298
SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.1 27.5 27.6 27.1 28.2 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 148 147 145 144 142 135 140 141 135 145 144
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9
200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 67 68 66 62 60 56 56 56 58 58
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 10 10 11 11
850 MB ENV VOR -16 -23 -28 -22 -18 -23 -12 -5 8 14 23 27 28
200 MB DIV 10 20 16 10 23 28 16 14 7 13 24 6 -2
700-850 TADV -5 -6 -8 -9 -5 -4 -1 -1 -1 -3 -6 -3 -4
LAND (KM) 1199 1257 1308 1339 1368 1493 1624 1777 1983 2209 2411 2465 2373
LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.4 13.8 13.9 13.7 13.2 12.6 11.8 11.2
LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.6 114.9 116.2 117.4 120.0 122.5 124.7 127.1 129.4 131.5 133.2 134.4
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 12 10 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 27 23 15 13 13 13 12 24 29 15 16 12 10

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. 9. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 14.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 26. 35. 43. 49. 53. 57. 55.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 112.4

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932018 INVEST 07/31/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 6.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.72 5.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.16 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 1.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 3.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 -3.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.8% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 18.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 5.0% 22.6% 10.1% 5.2% 0.9% 10.0% 7.9% 14.8%
Bayesian: 0.1% 4.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.7% 15.5% 9.5% 1.7% 0.3% 8.9% 8.9% 5.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932018 INVEST 07/31/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[Kingarabian]

OSCAT pass:


Euro showing abrupt development:

TXPZ21 KNES 310626
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93E)

B. 31/0600Z

C. 11.9N

D. 113.8W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES, WITH THE CENTER LOCATED LESS THAN 75NM FROM A SMALL COLD
OVERCAST. DT IS 1.5. MET IS 1.5 AND PT IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...ZHU

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula continue to show signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within
the next few days while the disturbance moves generally westward
at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Way too elongated SW to NE for my tastes.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula continue to show signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within
the next few days while the disturbance moves generally westward
at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

SAB up to 2.0.

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93E)

B. 31/1130Z

C. 12.0N

D. 115.2W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
AND A CENTER NEAR A SMALL COLD OVERCAST. THIS RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0
USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT
DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[Yellow Evan]

Much better this morning.

[cycloneye]

If a ASCAT pass comes with 35kt or over it will be TS Hector.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 850 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula have continued to become better organized
over the past several hours. If current trends continue, then a
tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely to form later
today or on Wednesday while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

12z Euro much, much more bullish.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

T2.5 from SAB.

31/1745 UTC 12.6N 116.1W T2.5/2.5 93E -- East Pacific

[CyclonicFury]

12z Euro much, much more bullish.

The 12z Euro is not unreasonable based on the favorable environment predicted by SHIPS.

[Kingarabian]

T2.5 from SAB.

31/1745 UTC 12.6N 116.1W T2.5/2.5 93E -- East Pacific

They should go straight to TS status.

[Kingarabian]

Bombing out in the CPAC. Also looks like a WNW shift:

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF makes this a hurricane. Not unreasonable given how low shear will be for a long time and how warm waters will be.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

At least a TD, maybe Hector by 5pm.

EP, 93, 2018073112, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1151W, 30, 1007, TD,
EP, 93, 2018073118, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1161W, 30, 1007, DB

[Yellow Evan]

No reason not to go to TS status with SAB at T2.5.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: No reason not to go to TS status with SAB at T2.5.

I know right? The NHC almost always waits for 2.5 classification before an upgrade to TS. This has maintained deep convection and curved bands for quite sometime meaning this has been a TD IMO and with a T2.5 from SAB it's ready to be named.