2018 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro now developing the 10/20 system

[Kazmit]

GFS has been showing a hurricane impacting the Baja for a few runs now, developing it the first week of august.

[cycloneye]

Going up.

A disorganized area of disturbed weather associated with an
elongated low pressure system is located nearly 1000 miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Conditions are expected to become more favorable for gradual
development during the next few days while the system moves
toward the west or west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

Keep going up.

An elongated area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms around 1000 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. However,
environmental conditions are expected to support gradual development
and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while
the system moves toward the west or west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Our best shot @ a July system.

[Yellow Evan]

Given strong shear expected in the CFS still, I’d think twice about going over 40% with this. NHC is tooo bullish IMO.

[cycloneye]

We have INVEST 91E.

[Yellow Evan]

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased, but remains
disorganized, in association with a small low pressure system
located around 1700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula. Some slight development is possible
overnight or tomorrow, but strong upper-level winds are likely to
prevent further development by Friday while the system moves
generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Well,we have two oportunities (91E,92E) to have at least one TC for July.

[cycloneye]

A new one.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of Mexico early
next week. Conditions are expected to be favorable for this system
to gradually develop as it moves toward the west-northwest well
south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

A new one.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of Mexico early
next week. Conditions are expected to be favorable for this system
to gradually develop as it moves toward the west-northwest well
south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Looks like this one may finnally be the strongest one since Fabio if the GFS/ECMWF are right.

[Kingarabian]

A new one.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of Mexico early
next week. Conditions are expected to be favorable for this system
to gradually develop as it moves toward the west-northwest well
south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Looks like this one may finnally be the strongest one since Fabio if the GFS/ECMWF are right.

Certainly hope so.. But of course 91E/92E were modeled out to be strong hurricanes a week ago.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian ,also ECMWF begins to develop what GFS has been showing on longer range that is close to Mexico. Days 9-10.

[cycloneye]

He is very excited.

@EricBlake12
A little delayed but the much-awaited eastern Pacific storm outbreak appears to have begun! Should be a fun midnight shift...

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1022587825911459840

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian ,also ECMWF begins to develop what GFS has been showing on longer range that is close to Mexico. Days 9-10.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/MF4tXwj.gif[img]

With the GFS and Euro reversing their positions 48 hours ago (just in time) to show TD's 8 and 9, I have some confidence in their long term solutions.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS has zero development for 0/20.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1022587842265075714

[Kingarabian]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1022587842265075714[tweet]

Yet no one bats an eye when they issue advisories and send planes into torn up and dried up TC's in the open Atlantic.

[gatorcane]

Wow look how strong the GFS is making this long-range EPAC system:

[Kingarabian]

Because this year so far has been a dud, all I could muster out was a "meh" when I saw that.