ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[Gustywind]

Regardless of Beryl's size, this is an impressive image for early July...

oh boy! Hope Beryl will halt her developpement! The latest projection is not a good one for those who live in the EC especially Dominica and Guadeloupe. Beryl is really stunning. Looks like if this dangerous approach continues that watches could appear soon for some islands of the Windwards and thus the Leewards The weekend is there, so authorities have to take Beryl at his own risk, busy days ahead waouw. Let's wait and see what could happen with Hurricane Beryl.

[northjaxpro]

96L/future Chris could leave a weakness in its wake for whatever is left of Beryl to move into in the next 5-7 days. This is a reasonable possibility.

[Siker]

:uarrow:

96L/future Chris could leave a weakness in its wake for whatever is left of Beryl to move into in the next 5-7 days. This is a reasonable possibility.

Relatedly, significant development of 96L would generate an ULAC, the outflow from which could directly shear Beryl's remnants in the Bahamas or spawn an ULL in the Bahamas / Gulf (as the GFS has depicted the past few runs) that inhibits redevelopment of Beryl.

[Aric Dunn]

Look at all the SAL.. its like magic that it has not pulled any of that in.. will also be crazy if somehow manages not to eventually pull the SAL in. I mean.. geezz.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow:

96L/future Chris could leave a weakness in its wake for whatever is left of Beryl to move into in the next 5-7 days. This is a reasonable possibility.

Relatedly, significant development of 96L would generate an ULAC, the outflow from which could directly shear Beryl's remnants in the Bahamas or spawn an ULL in the Bahamas / Gulf (as the GFS has depicted the past few runs) that inhibits redevelopment of Beryl.

Yes, this scenario should kill it, one would be inclined to reason, but with Beryl, she continues to this juncture of defying the odds, despite what the models have forecasted. Who knows what is in store ahead with this tiny cyclone...

[Gustywind]

Look at all the SAL.. its like magic that it has not pulled any of that in.. will also be crazy if somehow manages not to eventually pull the SAL in. I mean.. geezz.

We should call it a TINY WINDOW, but sufficient to maintain itselfs from struggling at least for now
Aric what is your latest guess of Beryl for those like me who live in the Leewards? Thanks.

[Aric Dunn]

Look at all the SAL.. its like magic that it has not pulled any of that in.. will also be crazy if somehow manages not to eventually pull the SAL in. I mean.. geezz.

We should call it a TINY WINDOW, but sufficient to maintain itselfs from struggling at least for now
Aric what is your latest guess of Beryl for those like me who live in the Leewards? Thanks.

very hard to say. but the NHC seems right on with it at the moment., a lot of uncertainty.

[MGC]

As long as the SAL moves westward with Beryl, I don't think the SAL will be a factor for several days.....MGC

[txwatcher91]

The tiny size of the storm is probably the reason it hasn't sucked in the dry air yet. Also the tail of convection to the south is helping to isolate it and pull in rich PWAT values as well. I've seen some of these storms totally isolate themselves from the dry air and manage to strengthen despite an unfavorable environment around it. As long as it doesn't get hit by shear next 24-48 hours it should continue to organize and strengthen.

Also, looks like the CDO is in the process of expanding in the SE/S quadrants and the storm might be expanding a little in size. Impressive considering we are near the peak of Dmin... tonight could see some rapid strengthening if so.

[chaser1]

Right now Beryl is looking amazing, well granted that we're likely seeing upper blow-off shielding the eye for the moment. I thought I was seeing the core CDO is expanding as well. However, I think dry air entrainment will be its demise well before upper level shear kicks in. On the mid layer enhanced satellite loop this a.m., it seemed evident that dryer RH is slowly eroding the broader envelope to the north and west, while also being slowly pulled around and to the south of the presently protected core. Looks like that process might finally cause dry air entrainment at or slightly prior to 36 hours

[Gustywind]

As long as the SAL moves westward with Beryl, I don't think the SAL will be a factor for several days.....MGC

Maybe you could be right, looks like they're moving in tandem.

[Gustywind]

Look at all the SAL.. its like magic that it has not pulled any of that in.. will also be crazy if somehow manages not to eventually pull the SAL in. I mean.. geezz.

We should call it a TINY WINDOW, but sufficient to maintain itselfs from struggling at least for now
Aric what is your latest guess of Beryl for those like me who live in the Leewards? Thanks.

very hard to say. but the NHC seems right on with it at the moment., a lot of uncertainty.

Ok thanks. Keeping our fingers crossed.

[chaser1]

:uarrow:

96L/future Chris could leave a weakness in its wake for whatever is left of Beryl to move into in the next 5-7 days. This is a reasonable possibility.

Relatedly, significant development of 96L would generate an ULAC, the outflow from which could directly shear Beryl's remnants in the Bahamas or spawn an ULL in the Bahamas / Gulf (as the GFS has depicted the past few runs) that inhibits redevelopment of Beryl.

Both good points, unless....... Unless Beryl were to continue to track 270/275 far further then expected, and in the process possibly remaining south of outflow from a developing anticyclone over 96L. Bottom line though, even if Beryl were to expand a fair amount, it is just so small and more easily disrupted by any number of factors. Dry air isn't impacting it yet, but it may very well at the point of nearing the Windwards/Leewards. If and when Easterly shear along with an added component of dry air begins to entrain, then decoupling of the surface and mid-levels would seem to result in a quick death and with very little chance for such a small meso feature to recover from

[Aric Dunn]

the last few hours.. almost look like Beryl is moving just south of west..

[Siker]

12z GEFS has a number of members redeveloping (or bringing back from near death) Beryl. Every low east of NC and the two in the Eastern Gulf are Beryl in this image:

[EquusStorm]

The official track keeps taking it WNW but I do wonder how long it'll be before it makes that turn. Seems pretty happy going west right now.

[weathaguyry]

If future Chris zooms off too fast, could the high build back in and stop Beryl from rushing OTS?

[abajan]

Beryl, largest waterspout on record heads west.....soon to be upgraded to microcane. I'm having my crow for breakfast this morning. Yea, crispy crow. Never thought this disturbance would get named, now forecast to push 100mph. Hopefully the hurricane remains small, I want to see the wind field when recon gets there. RMW of a mile or two? If Beryl can survive the shear I bet it tracks south of Hispaniola. Hold on to your hats.....MGC

We are watching it VERY closely here in Barbados (13.2N 56.6W). Even the Trinis & Tobagians in Trinidad & Tobago (10.0 - 11.4N 60.5 - 61.8W) have the eyes wide open now. The other islands behind (west) us here too ... we are always getting the taste long before anyone else.

Wish they would put up another ASCAT type satellite - too much open areas with the Metop A & B almost following each other. Remember I guy that got removed from the NHC some years ago for asking for that - that had me so infuriated back then (for us out here). We got plenty CROW to hand out now.

We're actually at 13.2N 59.6W. (But I know that's what you meant. )

[NDG]

Beryl continues to be an impressive little hurricane this afternoon, the experts are probably scratching their heads, the MDR may not as hostile as they might have thought especially as we get closer to the peak of the season.

[chaser1]

the last few hours.. almost look like Beryl is moving just south of west..

I thought I saw that about an hour or so ago.... then all of a sudden i'm seeing satellite of what appears to be the CONUS Southwest region?? Tried to refresh but nothing - odd?