Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 05 2018
Fabio is moving over 23 degree C waters. Consequently, the cloud
pattern has deteriorated significantly during the past several
hours. The convection has decreased in both intensity and in area
coverage, and there is no longer an inner core. Dvorak estimates
from all agencies support to lower the intensity to 60 kt at this
time. Since Fabio is heading toward much colder waters, rapid
weakening is anticipated, and the cyclone is forecast to become a
remnant low in about 36 hours, if not sooner.
Fabio is moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 14 kt
steered by the persistent subtropical ridge to the north. As a
shallow cyclone, Fabio could turn more to the west-northwest
steered by the low-level flow. The NHC forecast continues to be
in the middle of the tight guidance envelope bounded by the
multi-model consensus, and is very close to the HFIP Corrected
Consensus HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 19.3N 123.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 20.4N 125.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 21.8N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 23.0N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 07/0600Z 24.0N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z 25.5N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0600Z 26.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 05 2018
Fabio is moving over 23 degree C waters. Consequently, the cloud
pattern has deteriorated significantly during the past several
hours. The convection has decreased in both intensity and in area
coverage, and there is no longer an inner core. Dvorak estimates
from all agencies support to lower the intensity to 60 kt at this
time. Since Fabio is heading toward much colder waters, rapid
weakening is anticipated, and the cyclone is forecast to become a
remnant low in about 36 hours, if not sooner.
Fabio is moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 14 kt
steered by the persistent subtropical ridge to the north. As a
shallow cyclone, Fabio could turn more to the west-northwest
steered by the low-level flow. The NHC forecast continues to be
in the middle of the tight guidance envelope bounded by the
multi-model consensus, and is very close to the HFIP Corrected
Consensus HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 19.3N 123.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 20.4N 125.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 21.8N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 23.0N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 07/0600Z 24.0N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z 25.5N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0600Z 26.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila