2018 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

My take on the models is that there is consensus for at least three systems to develop in the next couple of weeks with maybe ECMWF and GFS trying to develop more (Long Range) but there are differences on intensity of all three systems but also the consensus is that Fabio will be the strongest of the trio. Cat 3 or higher) It will be facinating to watch how all evolves in the next few days to see in real time how it all plays out.And of course how much ACE units EPAC gets with all the upcomming activity will consolidate this basin as the #1 in the Northern Hemisphere.

[cycloneye]

The three systems Emilia,Fabio and Gilma at 144 hours on 12z GFS.Let's see how the rest of run goes to see how low the pressure will be on future Fabio.

[cycloneye]

Loop from 144 hours to 192 hours where you can see future Fabio going down in pressure as well future Gilma behind.

[cycloneye]

On long range it adds Hector.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over Nicaragua and Costa Rica is expected
to move into the eastern Pacific by tonight. Development is
anticipated as the system moves westward away from Central America,
and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of the
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

EPS indicating some chance at likely Hector around day 12 or so.

[CyclonicFury]

Euro is much weaker with potential Fabio through 144 hours compared to yesterday's 12z run.

[cycloneye]

Euro is much weaker with potential Fabio through 144 hours compared to yesterday's 12z run.

Yes,was more weaker in general with the lowest pressure at 972 mbs.Also barely develops Gilma. Loop from 72 hours to 240 hours.

[Kingarabian]

Euro is much weaker with potential Fabio through 144 hours compared to yesterday's 12z run.

I think the Euro has a tough time taking into account RI in the EPAC. For this reason It failed with Aletta and Bud intensity wise.

[cycloneye]

Agree Kingarabian,the model to go with is GFS in EPAC.Euro has not been that stellar or king lately not only in EPAC.

[Chris90]

Euro is much weaker with potential Fabio through 144 hours compared to yesterday's 12z run.

I think the Euro has a tough time taking into account RI in the EPAC. For this reason It failed with Aletta and Bud intensity wise.

Total amateur observation guess and observation, but it seems like people generally trust the Euro more in the ATL, while it seems like the GFS is the more skilled of the two in the EPac. Could it have to do with their handling of different environmental factors? It seems like shear and dry air have negative effects on EPac storms with less frequency than they do with ATL storms, but warm water doesn't extend as far north in the EPac as it does in the ATL. Does the Euro have a bias to over do shear and dry air, therefore why it does better in the ATL than the EPac?

I could be way off as I'm a total amateur when it comes to the models and still have loads to learn.

Regardless, it seems that at the very least, Fabio is going to give us those fireworks to celebrate the 4th, tropical weather style.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian,checking the Patricia thread,GFS was fantastic as well HWRF. Waiting for Invest 97E to be up to see how HWRF does.

Hurricane Patricia

[Yellow Evan]

Euro is much weaker with potential Fabio through 144 hours compared to yesterday's 12z run.

I think the Euro has a tough time taking into account RI in the EPAC. For this reason It failed with Aletta and Bud intensity wise.

Total amateur observation guess and observation, but it seems like people generally trust the Euro more in the ATL, while it seems like the GFS is the more skilled of the two in the EPac. Could it have to do with their handling of different environmental factors? It seems like shear and dry air have negative effects on EPac storms with less frequency than they do with ATL storms, but warm water doesn't extend as far north in the EPac as it does in the ATL. Does the Euro have a bias to over do shear and dry air, therefore why it does better in the ATL than the EPac?

I could be way off as I'm a total amateur when it comes to the models and still have loads to learn.

Regardless, it seems that at the very least, Fabio is going to give us those fireworks to celebrate the 4th, tropical weather style.

That certainty isn't always the case. EMCWF did amazing in 2015 and was generally pretty good in 2016. 2013 and 2017 in particular the GFS spawned too many phantoms in the basin, it was pretty much on target in 2014, and then fairly conservative for much of 2015 and did decent in 2016. Honestly the last year I can say the GFS was better than the ECMWF was in 2012, but back then the ECMWF use to do much worse in the deep tropics in general.

[Kingarabian]

I think the Euro has a tough time taking into account RI in the EPAC. For this reason It failed with Aletta and Bud intensity wise.

Total amateur observation guess and observation, but it seems like people generally trust the Euro more in the ATL, while it seems like the GFS is the more skilled of the two in the EPac. Could it have to do with their handling of different environmental factors? It seems like shear and dry air have negative effects on EPac storms with less frequency than they do with ATL storms, but warm water doesn't extend as far north in the EPac as it does in the ATL. Does the Euro have a bias to over do shear and dry air, therefore why it does better in the ATL than the EPac?

I could be way off as I'm a total amateur when it comes to the models and still have loads to learn.

Regardless, it seems that at the very least, Fabio is going to give us those fireworks to celebrate the 4th, tropical weather style.

That certainty isn't always the case. EMCWF did amazing in 2015 and was generally pretty good in 2016. 2013 and 2017 in particular the GFS spawned too many phantoms in the basin, it was pretty much on target in 2014, and then fairly conservative for much of 2015 and did decent in 2016. Honestly the last year I can say the GFS was better than the ECMWF was in 2012, but back then the ECMWF use to do much worse in the deep tropics in general.

Well so far this season the GFS has been better hands down. The next 2 weeks will also prove who is better.

[Yellow Evan]

Kingarabian,checking the Patricia thread,GFS was fantastic as well HWRF. Waiting for Invest 97E to be up to see how HWRF does.

Hurricane Patricia

I should point on Patricia was the only system in 2015 the GFS handled well to be honest.

Serious screwups include:
Missing Blanca's upwelling stage
Too bullish then too conservative on Dolores
Underdoing Guillermo
Totally missing Loke
Too bullish on Kilo early on, which caused serious track errors in addition to intensity ones
Totally missing Ignacio
Too bullish on Nora early on

Outside of the Pacific, screwups included:
Missing the ball on the 2 NIO cyclones that hit the Middle East
Joaquin (came nowhere near the US EC... honestly was a major win for the ECMWF)
Overdoing the great WPAC outbreak of June 2015

To be fair the ECMWF dropped the ball on some of these (Ignacio, Blanca, Loke) come to mind but in general the 2015 era GFS was just very erratic. For a series of runs it'd be uber bullish and then for a series of runs, it'd be very passive. To be fair, it was better than the 2012-2014 edition which produced plenty of phantoms in the West Caribbean (yes, it's a known GFS problem but I remember for like 2 weeks in a row twice in June and in October it kept showing a system in the WCARB being ejected out and hitting either Mexico or the Sunshine state) but honestly the 2018 GFS in all was generally better than the 2015 GFS, so I'm not sure how much you could compare runs of this to Patricia. Not to mentioned Patrica was an entirely different setup.

[Yellow Evan]

Total amateur observation guess and observation, but it seems like people generally trust the Euro more in the ATL, while it seems like the GFS is the more skilled of the two in the EPac. Could it have to do with their handling of different environmental factors? It seems like shear and dry air have negative effects on EPac storms with less frequency than they do with ATL storms, but warm water doesn't extend as far north in the EPac as it does in the ATL. Does the Euro have a bias to over do shear and dry air, therefore why it does better in the ATL than the EPac?

I could be way off as I'm a total amateur when it comes to the models and still have loads to learn.

Regardless, it seems that at the very least, Fabio is going to give us those fireworks to celebrate the 4th, tropical weather style.

That certainty isn't always the case. EMCWF did amazing in 2015 and was generally pretty good in 2016. 2013 and 2017 in particular the GFS spawned too many phantoms in the basin, it was pretty much on target in 2014, and then fairly conservative for much of 2015 and did decent in 2016. Honestly the last year I can say the GFS was better than the ECMWF was in 2012, but back then the ECMWF use to do much worse in the deep tropics in general.

Well so far this season the GFS has been better hands down. The next 2 weeks will also prove who is better.

My hunch is the ECMWF makes it up the next 2 weeks because in general it's been a little more consistent with 96E and the 2 systems behind it but then again I love shilling for the ECMWF so I may be biased.

[Ntxw]

Some of it is also circumstantial. If conditions are very favorable, in the EPAC go with the strongest model.

[Yellow Evan]

Some of it is also circumstantial. If conditions are very favorable, in the EPAC go with the strongest model.

Also true. Sometimes the GFS lucks its way into being right or even being too conservative just because EPAC storms are famous for sudden ramp ups in intensify to the point where it still sometimes surprises me after all these years.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS stronger on the 3 systems.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS through 240 hours back to showing Emilia stronger, Fabio a potent cat.4 hurricane, and eventually Gilma a potent cat.4 hurricane.

GFS and the Euro have been all over the place in regards to steering. Being that these next 3 named systems will be forming this week and next week, SST's to the north still need some more time to be ideal to harbor major hurricanes.

We're also at the stage where steering is shifting from recurving closer to Mexico to pushing systems west closer to the CPAC.