2018 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

20%/80% - 0%/60%

Shower activity associated with a broad low pressure area located
about 500 miles south of eastern Mexico has become a little better
organized during the last 24 hours. Environmental conditions are
expected to steadily become more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the
system moves generally westward, well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to move out of the Caribbean Sea and
into the eastern Pacific by Tuesday or Wednesday. Some subsequent
development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression
could form south of Central America or the Gulf of Tehuantepec by
the end of this week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS has added Hector at the end.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 96E is up

[Ntxw]

These EPAC modeled canes to me looks like 10-15 units each varying on strength. A longtracker could yield 20+, so with 2-3 systems basin might be sitting at 50-70 units by early July of ACE.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS barely develops the third system.

[Yellow Evan]

These EPAC modeled canes to me looks like 10-15 units each varying on strength. A longtracker could yield 20+, so with 2-3 systems basin might be sitting at 50-70 units by early July of ACE.

My guess is 96E adds about 10 units of ACE with the system behind it should add 20. By July 5, we should clear 50 ACE units.

[cycloneye]

My prediction of ACE:

96E=12.5
Future 97E=23.0

[cycloneye]

Cat 4's Aletta (11.2) and Bud (11.9) didn't got more ACE units as both moved faster to colder waters but 96E will track longer thru warm waters and great enviroment.Same with future 97E.

[cycloneye]

0%/70%

A tropical wave over the southwestern Caribbean Sea should move into
the eastern Pacific tonight or Tuesday. Gradual development of this
system is expected as it moves westward away from Central America,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[cycloneye]

Summary of 12z ECMWF:

Is weaker than GFS on 96E.

Is stronger on future 97E/Fabio than 00z run (952 mbs) but weaker than GFS.

Barely develops the third system (Like GFS)

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
Next week, the ECMWF model has Fabio as a powerful hurricane in the Pacific. #TropicalUpdate

[Kingarabian]

Summary of 12z ECMWF:

Is weaker than GFS on 96E.

Is stronger on future 97E/Fabio than 00z run (952 mbs) but weaker than GFS.

Barely develops the third system (Like GFS)

[img]https://i.imgur.com/YebYvCy.png[img]

The low pressure area after Fabio looks well defined on the Euro and the GFS. Local conditions and Climo would support development unless there's shear somewhere. I would still bet on it being Gilma.

[Kingarabian]

These EPAC modeled canes to me looks like 10-15 units each varying on strength. A longtracker could yield 20+, so with 2-3 systems basin might be sitting at 50-70 units by early July of ACE.

Could see more ACE than currently modeled since the models are having trouble in their handling of the STR. If it's stronger ridge like they showed yesterday, then the storms will move more west vs north west and stay over a more conducive enviornment.

[cycloneye]

These EPAC modeled canes to me looks like 10-15 units each varying on strength. A longtracker could yield 20+, so with 2-3 systems basin might be sitting at 50-70 units by early July of ACE.

Could see more ACE than currently modeled since the models are having trouble in their handling of the STR. If it's stronger ridge like they showed yesterday, then the storms will move more west vs north west and stay over a more conducive enviornment.

FV3 has Gilma.

[cycloneye]

The 2018 EPAC ACE goes up slightly with Daniel that ends with 0.7 units and it raises the season total to 25.2 units.From here the new systems that are comming in the next 2 weeks will add substantial ACE units.Let's see after the upcomming strong activity how it ends up.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Rea ... astpacific

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS coming in stronger for both Emilia and Fabio compared to the past 4 runs:

[cycloneye]

18z GFS has back future Gilma.

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure from GFS since it began showing this system (905 mbs)

[Kingarabian]

Come ASO, and we'll be seeing sub 900mb being modeled out.

[CyclonicFury]

Future 97E (likely to be Fabio) is probably going to be a strong storm. However, the GFS often has a tendency to over-intensify systems, so the 905 mb may be too intense. If I had to take a guess on the intensity, I would say strong Category 4 considering the relative rarity of Category 5 hurricanes in the EPAC.