EPAC: CARLOTTA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Wow,up to 60 mph.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlotta Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018
700 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

...CARLOTTA STRENGTHENS AND MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHWEST...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR ACAPULCO LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 99.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WNW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

[Visioen]

Pretty cold cloud tops. Hot tower I suppose.

[cycloneye]

Making a run to hurricane?

Tropical Storm Carlotta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018
740 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

...CARLOTTA STILL STRENGTHENING NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...

Radar images from Acapulco, Mexico, and satellite data indicate
that Carlotta has continued to strengthen and now has maximum winds
of 65 mph (100 km/h). This change will be reflected in the next
advisory package in a couple of hours.


SUMMARY OF 740 PM CDT...0040 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 99.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WNW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Blake

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

EP, 04, 2018061700, , BEST, 0, 164N, 995W, 55, 997, T

[BYG Jacob]

microcane

[cycloneye]

None of the models had this system strong as it is now. I haven't seen 997 mbs on any runs of all the models in the past few days.

[Kazmit]

The models really failed with this one. Every named storm in the EPac this year has gotten much stronger than expected.

[NotSparta]

The models really failed with this one. Every named storm in the EPac this year has gotten much stronger than expected.

Really a perfect storm of circumstances for intensity error. The first two storms had RI episodes, which make most of the models drop the ball with intensity. And then Carlotta delays its landfall, meaning more time over water and to intensify.

[Kingarabian]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/ItaVixg.gif[img]

Present eyewall... likely a hurricane

[Kingarabian]

The models really failed with this one. Every named storm in the EPac this year has gotten much stronger than expected.

Really a perfect storm of circumstances for intensity error. The first two storms had RI episodes, which make most of the models drop the ball with intensity. And then Carlotta delays its landfall, meaning more time over water and to intensify.

Intensity wise, the GFS did a better job with Aletta and Bud compared to the Euro as it originally had the correct lower pressures.

[Kingarabian]

I recall Alyono called for Calotta's development in the Global Model Discussion thread before any of the models had it. Kudos.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

...CARLOTTA VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH 65-MPH
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 99.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Carlotta has surprised us this evening. Radar images from Acapulco,
Mexico, indicate that the storm has strengthened and its structure
has improved significantly. The radar data indicate that Carlotta
has a well-defined, but tiny, inner core and the eye has been
contracting during the past few hours. In addition, the radar
echoes in the eyewall has been getting stronger and more symmetric
around the eye. The initial wind speed is set to 55 kt, in
agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB.

Carlotta is very close to the coast of southern Mexico and, in
fact, the northern eyewall is partially onshore. Since the
storm is expected to interact with land and is forecast to move
inland overnight or Sunday morning, it appears unlikely that
Carlotta will strengthen much more. Once inland, fast weakening is
expected and Carlotta should dissipate over the high terrain of
Mexico Sunday night or early Monday.

The storm has moved more to the west than previous thought, likely
due to the influence of a narrow mid-level ridge to its north. The
new forecast is adjusted well to the west of the previous one, and
is in fair agreement with the latest consensus models.

Regardless of whether the center moves inland, the threat of heavy
rainfall and potential of life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides continue over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca.
The rainfall threat will be enhanced by moist southwesterly flow
over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico. For details,
please see products issued by your local weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 16.6N 99.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 17.0N 100.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 18/0000Z 17.5N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/1200Z 18.0N 101.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

What a statement in the discussion.

Carlotta has surprised us this evening

[Visioen]

What a statement in the discussion.

Carlotta has surprised us this evening

Yeah.
A TS right before the coast that goes another way than forecasted and then strengthens.. I imagine that's not how they like it.

[Kingarabian]

Interesting that we've had no recon

[Kingarabian]

What a statement in the discussion.

Carlotta has surprised us this evening

For residents in the immediate path, it must be worrying.

[Yellow Evan]

Interesting that we've had no recon

NHC only like to send them out when there's long-term anticipation of a hurricane for near Mexico systems.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

The Acapulco Radar from the Mexican Weather Service has been very
useful in diagnosis and tracking Carlotta tonight. Now that a
portion of the circulation is interacting with land, the radar
presentation has deteriorated compared with several hours ago, and
the cloud pattern observed on satellite has become shapeless. The
cyclone is so tiny than even the ASCAT did not completely identified
the cyclone, but at least it measured a few 35-kt wind vectors.
None of the global models acknowledge the presence of Carlotta in
the analysis. Dvorak T-numbers from al agencies are decreasing, and
on this basis, the initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt.

Since the interaction with land is expected to continue, the NHC
forecast calls for gradual weakening, and this will occur at a
faster rate if the cyclone moves inland within the next 12 to 24
hours as anticipated.

Yesterday, the forecast was for Carlotta to move northeastward or
northward. The steering currents changed slightly tonight, and
instead, the tiny cyclone is now moving toward the northwest at
about 6 kt or faster. The limited available guidance suggests that
this general motion should continue until dissipation in 36 hours or
so. Since the cyclone is not depicted by the global models, the
forecast is highly uncertain.

Given the northwest track, the Government of Mexico has extended the
Tropical Storm Warning westward along the coast. It must be
emphasized that regardless of whether the center moves inland or
continues moving along the coast, the main threat of heavy rainfall
and potential of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
continue over the southern parts of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan.
The rainfall threat will be enhanced by moist southwesterly flow
over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico. For details,
please see products issued by your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 17.0N 100.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 17.4N 101.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 17.9N 101.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/1800Z 18.5N 102.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlotta Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018
700 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

...CARLOTTA WEAKENING NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 101.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES