WPAC: MALIKSI - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Tropical Storm
WDPN32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSET EQUATORWARD OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
LLC FEATURE IN THE 091658Z ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGERY THAT LINED UP WELL
WITH A BULLSEYE FEATURE IN THE 091303Z ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD OF T3.5 AND T3.0, RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TS 06W IS STILL IN A ZONE WITH FAVORABLE VWS (5 TO 10
KNOTS) ALONG WITH MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE AT
30 CELSIUS. TS 06W HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS MALIKSI WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR, OUTFLOW, AND SSTS
WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY, REACHING
A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
SSTS DECREASE AND VWS INCREASES. TS 06W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETE ETT TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSET EQUATORWARD OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
LLC FEATURE IN THE 091658Z ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGERY THAT LINED UP WELL
WITH A BULLSEYE FEATURE IN THE 091303Z ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD OF T3.5 AND T3.0, RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TS 06W IS STILL IN A ZONE WITH FAVORABLE VWS (5 TO 10
KNOTS) ALONG WITH MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE AT
30 CELSIUS. TS 06W HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS MALIKSI WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR, OUTFLOW, AND SSTS
WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY, REACHING
A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
SSTS DECREASE AND VWS INCREASES. TS 06W WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETE ETT TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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- Ed_2001
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 228
- Age: 22
- Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:39 pm
- Location: Santa Barbara, CA>>Tampa, FL
Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Tropical Storm
984.7 mb so far on Minami-Daito according to JMA, live data:
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today- ... oupCode=65
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today- ... oupCode=65
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The answer my friend, is blowing in the wind...
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- Category 1
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139594
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Typhoon
JMA upgrades to Typhoon.
TY 1805 (Maliksi)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 10 June 2018
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 10 June>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°00' (25.0°)
E130°40' (130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 220 km (120 NM)
NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 750 km (400 NM)
NW 300 km (160 NM)
<Estimate for 01 UTC, 10 June>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°10' (25.2°)
E130°50' (130.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 220 km (120 NM)
NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 750 km (400 NM)
NW 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 10 June>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°25' (27.4°)
E134°10' (134.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area SE 300 km (160 NM)
NW 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 11 June>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N30°35' (30.6°)
E138°50' (138.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 50 km/h (26 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area SE 370 km (200 NM)
NW 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 12 June>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N38°35' (38.6°)
E149°05' (149.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55 km/h (29 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 10 June 2018
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 10 June>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°00' (25.0°)
E130°40' (130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 220 km (120 NM)
NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 750 km (400 NM)
NW 300 km (160 NM)
<Estimate for 01 UTC, 10 June>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N25°10' (25.2°)
E130°50' (130.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 220 km (120 NM)
NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 750 km (400 NM)
NW 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 10 June>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°25' (27.4°)
E134°10' (134.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area SE 300 km (160 NM)
NW 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 11 June>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N30°35' (30.6°)
E138°50' (138.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 50 km/h (26 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Storm warning area SE 370 km (200 NM)
NW 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 12 June>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N38°35' (38.6°)
E149°05' (149.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55 km/h (29 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Typhoon
TPPN12 PGTW 100022
A. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI)
B. 10/0000Z
C. 24.93N
D. 130.57E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .80 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
3.5 DT. MET/PT 3.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/2131Z 24.42N 129.45E SSMS
09/2156Z 24.43N 129.57E SSMS
DAVIS
A. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI)
B. 10/0000Z
C. 24.93N
D. 130.57E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .80 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
3.5 DT. MET/PT 3.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/2131Z 24.42N 129.45E SSMS
09/2156Z 24.43N 129.57E SSMS
DAVIS
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Typhoon
TXPQ26 KNES 092109
TCSWNP
A. 06W (MALIKSI)
B. 09/2030Z
C. 24.9N
D. 129.5E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/GMI
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS TO THE WEST OF A
WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURE, WHICH MEASURES 4/10. IN EIR IMAGERY THIS
BAND IS W, WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED
ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
09/1851Z 24.0N 128.6E GMI
...TURK
TCSWNP
A. 06W (MALIKSI)
B. 09/2030Z
C. 24.9N
D. 129.5E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/GMI
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS TO THE WEST OF A
WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURE, WHICH MEASURES 4/10. IN EIR IMAGERY THIS
BAND IS W, WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED
ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
09/1851Z 24.0N 128.6E GMI
...TURK
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Typhoon
![Image](http://i68.tinypic.com/2mhh5wy.jpg)
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Typhoon
TPPN12 PGTW 100252
A. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI)
B. 10/0230Z
C. 25.26N
D. 130.78E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .80 WRAP ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS 3.5 DT. MET/PT 3.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/2131Z 24.42N 129.45E SSMS
09/2156Z 24.43N 129.57E SSMS
DAVIS
TXPQ26 KNES 100322
TCSWNP
A. 06W (MALIKSI)
B. 10/0230Z
C. 26.0N
D. 131.3E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS/AMSU
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SHEAR PATTERN WITH THE LLCC AT LEAST 1/3 DEGREE INTO DG FOR A
DT=3.5. MET=2.0. PT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON PT SINCE CLOUD FEATURES ARE
NOT CLEAR-CUT AND AN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE MET. 06W HAS BEGUN
ACCELERATING NE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
09/2131Z 24.8N 129.6E SSMIS
10/0135Z 25.9N 131.3E AMSU
...LEE
A. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI)
B. 10/0230Z
C. 25.26N
D. 130.78E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .80 WRAP ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS 3.5 DT. MET/PT 3.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/2131Z 24.42N 129.45E SSMS
09/2156Z 24.43N 129.57E SSMS
DAVIS
TXPQ26 KNES 100322
TCSWNP
A. 06W (MALIKSI)
B. 10/0230Z
C. 26.0N
D. 131.3E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS/AMSU
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SHEAR PATTERN WITH THE LLCC AT LEAST 1/3 DEGREE INTO DG FOR A
DT=3.5. MET=2.0. PT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON PT SINCE CLOUD FEATURES ARE
NOT CLEAR-CUT AND AN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE MET. 06W HAS BEGUN
ACCELERATING NE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
09/2131Z 24.8N 129.6E SSMIS
10/0135Z 25.9N 131.3E AMSU
...LEE
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Typhoon
Minimum pressure of 977.7 was recorded in Minami Daito as Maliksi made it's closest approach.
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Typhoon
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUN 2018 Time : 041000 UTC
Lat : 26:01:06 N Lon : 132:07:21 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 971.8mb/ 61.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.5 3.5
Center Temp : -50.6C Cloud Region Temp : -65.5C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 188km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb
Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.8 degrees
****************************************************
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUN 2018 Time : 041000 UTC
Lat : 26:01:06 N Lon : 132:07:21 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 971.8mb/ 61.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.5 3.5
Center Temp : -50.6C Cloud Region Temp : -65.5C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 188km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb
Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.8 degrees
****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Typhoon
![Image](http://i63.tinypic.com/swa0j7.gif)
JTWC remains just shy of typhoon.
WDPN32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 231 NM
EAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD FIELD WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 100531Z
37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE LLCC AND THE REMAINING
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS
HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55
KNOTS) AND T4.0(65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD, RESPECTIVELY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 06W IS EXPERIENCING GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALONG WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10
KNOTS). TS 06W HAS TRACKED OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER BUT SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE, RANGING BETWEEN 27 TO 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TS 06W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF THE STR. TS 06W WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 12, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
SUSTAINED INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE A WEAKENING
TREND BEGINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP
TO ACCELERATE TS 06W TO THE NORTHEAST. BEYOND TAU 12, AS TS 06W
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD, IT WILL ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS 06W WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Typhoon
JMA may be the official agency but SCAT shows no winds above 60 knots winds especially near the center.
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/FZgFdqv.jpg)
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/a409QOd.jpg)
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/RBjjLeQ.jpg)
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/FZgFdqv.jpg)
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/a409QOd.jpg)
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/RBjjLeQ.jpg)
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Typhoon
TXPQ26 KNES 100912
TCSWNP
A. 06W (MALIKSI)
B. 10/0830Z
C. 26.8N
D. 132.9E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SHEAR PATTERN WITH THE LLCC EMBEDDED AT LEAST 1/3 DEGREE INTO DG
FOR A DT=3.5. MET=2.5. PT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON MET SINCE CLOUD FEATURES
ARE NOT CLEAR-CUT. 06W APPEARS TO BE BEGINNING EXTRA-TROP TRANSITION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
10/0439Z 26.4N 131.9E AMSR2
...LEE
TPPN12 PGTW 100920
A. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI)
B. 10/0900Z
C. 27.12N
D. 132.63E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .85 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT
YIELDING A 3.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/0531Z 26.18N 131.77E SSMI
LEMBKE
TCSWNP
A. 06W (MALIKSI)
B. 10/0830Z
C. 26.8N
D. 132.9E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SHEAR PATTERN WITH THE LLCC EMBEDDED AT LEAST 1/3 DEGREE INTO DG
FOR A DT=3.5. MET=2.5. PT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON MET SINCE CLOUD FEATURES
ARE NOT CLEAR-CUT. 06W APPEARS TO BE BEGINNING EXTRA-TROP TRANSITION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
10/0439Z 26.4N 131.9E AMSR2
...LEE
TPPN12 PGTW 100920
A. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI)
B. 10/0900Z
C. 27.12N
D. 132.63E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .85 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT
YIELDING A 3.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/0531Z 26.18N 131.77E SSMI
LEMBKE
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- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Severe Tropical Storm
JMA downgrades to Severe Tropical Storm.
STS 1805 (Maliksi)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 10 June 2018
<Analysis at 12 UTC, 10 June>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N27°40' (27.7°)
E134°20' (134.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45 km/h (23 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 220 km (120 NM)
NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 750 km (400 NM)
NW 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 11 June>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N30°25' (30.4°)
E138°35' (138.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45 km/h (23 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area SE 300 km (160 NM)
NW 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 11 June>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N33°55' (33.9°)
E143°55' (143.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 50 km/h (28 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 12 June>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N39°25' (39.4°)
E154°30' (154.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 984 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 10 June 2018
<Analysis at 12 UTC, 10 June>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N27°40' (27.7°)
E134°20' (134.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45 km/h (23 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 220 km (120 NM)
NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 750 km (400 NM)
NW 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 11 June>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N30°25' (30.4°)
E138°35' (138.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45 km/h (23 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area SE 300 km (160 NM)
NW 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 11 June>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N33°55' (33.9°)
E143°55' (143.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 50 km/h (28 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 12 June>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N39°25' (39.4°)
E154°30' (154.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 984 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Typhoon
euro6208 wrote:JMA may be the official agency but SCAT shows no winds above 60 knots winds especially near the center.
ASCAT is not a reliable tool for intensity estimation for storms with winds of 50+ KT.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
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- Posts: 139594
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Severe Tropical Storm
STS 1805 (Maliksi)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 10 June 2018
<Analysis at 18 UTC, 10 June>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N28°55' (28.9°)
E136°30' (136.5°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 45 km/h (23 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 220 km (120 NM)
NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 750 km (400 NM)
NW 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 11 June>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N32°05' (32.1°)
E141°20' (141.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 50 km/h (26 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 11 June>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N35°50' (35.8°)
E146°40' (146.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55 km/h (30 kt)
Central pressure 984 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 10 June 2018
<Analysis at 18 UTC, 10 June>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N28°55' (28.9°)
E136°30' (136.5°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 45 km/h (23 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 220 km (120 NM)
NW 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 750 km (400 NM)
NW 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 11 June>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N32°05' (32.1°)
E141°20' (141.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 50 km/h (26 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 18 UTC, 11 June>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N35°50' (35.8°)
E146°40' (146.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55 km/h (30 kt)
Central pressure 984 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Severe Tropical Storm
WDPN32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI) WARNING
NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 26
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED BUT EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) MOSTLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT SURROUNDED BY
INTENSE RAINBANDS TO THE NORTHWEST, NORTHEAST, AND SOUTHEAST AS
EVIDENT IN THE 101758Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 50 KNOTS GIVEN THE STEADY-STATE STRUCTURE SINCE THE LAST
ASCAT PASS. THIS INTENSITY IS CORROBORATED BY THE GRADUALLY
DECREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES PLENTY OF OUTFLOW AHEAD OF TS 06W, WITH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR REMAINING LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE AROUND 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 06W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 06W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. AS IT BECOMES FURTHER EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW, TS 06W WILL SUFFER THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING FOLLOWED BY
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI) WARNING
NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (MALIKSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 26
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED BUT EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) MOSTLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT SURROUNDED BY
INTENSE RAINBANDS TO THE NORTHWEST, NORTHEAST, AND SOUTHEAST AS
EVIDENT IN THE 101758Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 50 KNOTS GIVEN THE STEADY-STATE STRUCTURE SINCE THE LAST
ASCAT PASS. THIS INTENSITY IS CORROBORATED BY THE GRADUALLY
DECREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES PLENTY OF OUTFLOW AHEAD OF TS 06W, WITH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR REMAINING LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE AROUND 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 06W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 06W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. AS IT BECOMES FURTHER EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW, TS 06W WILL SUFFER THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING FOLLOWED BY
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139594
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: WPAC: MALIKSI - Severe Tropical Storm
STS 1805 (Maliksi)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 11 June 2018
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 11 June>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N30°35' (30.6°)
E139°00' (139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 750 km (400 NM)
NW 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 11 June>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N34°20' (34.3°)
E143°40' (143.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 50 km/h (27 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 12 June>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N37°50' (37.8°)
E149°55' (149.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55 km/h (30 kt)
Central pressure 988 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 11 June 2018
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 11 June>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N30°35' (30.6°)
E139°00' (139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45 km/h (25 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area SE 750 km (400 NM)
NW 300 km (160 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 11 June>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N34°20' (34.3°)
E143°40' (143.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 50 km/h (27 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 12 June>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N37°50' (37.8°)
E149°55' (149.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55 km/h (30 kt)
Central pressure 988 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
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