Texas Summer 2018

[Ntxw]

Shockingly no hail damage. The hail stones were quite large earlier. I did manage to sleep a bit more after the rain.

I thought that at first glance for me also, but upon closer inspection looking level with the car there are definitely dings.

[Ntxw]

GFS has followed suit with potential hurricane Bud near baja and western trough

[bubba hotep]

Wow! FWD is saying some areas received hail up to 3" last night. I checked the radar and HRRR & 3K NAM before bed and figured at worst we might see a passing shower over night but not much more. I heard the thunder but couldn't be bothered to get out of bed to check things out lol

That makes 3 days in row that storms have hit MBY. The global models were way to aggressive with the ridge in the medium range keeping DFW dry this week. However, this has been a big-time winner/loser pattern with some portions of DFW totally missing out.

[bubba hotep]

GFS has followed suit with potential hurricane Bud near baja and western trough

The 00z Euro at D10 is locked and loaded with Western Trough, EPAC storm and moisture surge across the Western Gulf. Now, who knows what 12z will show.

[bubba hotep]

GFS has followed suit with potential hurricane Bud near baja and western trough

The 00z Euro at D10 is locked and loaded with Western Trough, EPAC storm and moisture surge across the Western Gulf. Now, who knows what 12z will show.

To add to this, the EPS individual members are roughly split into two camps. One cluster is pretty dry looking and the other cluster is wet with some having big time totals.

[JDawg512]

We had a tree victim here at work from the storms last night in north Austin. Worse here than where I live. Looks like they were already sawing at it to get it cleaned up.

I know y’all are Central Texas, and post oak is the wood of choice, but I would put that fell pecan wood to good use on my Big Green Egg. Pecan is my primary smoking wood.

Yeah. More post oak and blackjack oak around here than Live oak.
I'm honestly not certain it was a Pecan(?). I looked at the leaves close up, along with the trunk, and it looked similar to a Chinese Pistache. Only reason is because my dad and I planted a Chinese Pistache in the 80s in his backyard in San Antonio, and it looks just like it. Leaves seemed too small for a Pecan, but maybe it was(?).lol. Not sure. Pecan is good smoking wood.

The neighborhood I live and grew up in was built in a Live Oak forest that covered a large area of south Austin, some of the trees have been aged around 500 years. If you get a chance, check out The Great Outdoors on South Congress across from St. Edwards University. There are some massive old Live Oaks there. Due to Austin's location we are lucky enough to be situated where multiple ecological regions meet. In fact around 12 species of Oak alone can be found in Austin.

As far as that tree in your picture, I want to say it's a Pecan or a Walnut tree mainly because of the bark color. Chinese Pistachio trees have a darker brown, almost reddish bark as opposed to dark to light grey's that are common with Pecans. Another difference is Chinese Pistachio's have more leaves on the stem than Pecans or Walnuts. You will definitely know in the Autumn if the tree is a Pistachio if it has brilliant orange to red Autumn foliage. If it doesn't then it's a Pecan.

[weatherdude1108]

I know y’all are Central Texas, and post oak is the wood of choice, but I would put that fell pecan wood to good use on my Big Green Egg. Pecan is my primary smoking wood.

Yeah. More post oak and blackjack oak around here than Live oak.
I'm honestly not certain it was a Pecan(?). I looked at the leaves close up, along with the trunk, and it looked similar to a Chinese Pistache. Only reason is because my dad and I planted a Chinese Pistache in the 80s in his backyard in San Antonio, and it looks just like it. Leaves seemed too small for a Pecan, but maybe it was(?).lol. Not sure. Pecan is good smoking wood.

The neighborhood I live and grew up in was built in a Live Oak forest that covered a large area of south Austin, some of the trees have been aged around 500 years. Due to Austin's location we are lucky enough to be situated where multiple ecological regions meet. In fact around 12 species of Oak alone can be found in Austin.

As far as that tree in your picture, I want to say it's a Pecan or a Walnut tree mainly because of the bark color. Chinese Pistachio trees have a darker brown, almost reddish bark as opposed to dark to light grey's that are common with Pecans. Another difference is Chinese Pistachio's have more leaves on the stem than Pecans or Walnuts. You will definitely know in the Autumn if the tree is a Pistachio if it has brilliant orange to red Autumn foliage. If it doesn't then it's a Pecan.

Interesting. They start to blur after a while with the leaves with me. I'll check to see the color in Fall.

Yeah, I remember reading the tag on the Chinese Pistachio tree my dad and I bought when I was in middle school. It said something like "50-60 feet tall; foliage turns from scarlet to crimson, providing excellent Fall color." At the time, we were freaking out at the height (60 feet tall) that it said. I would say the one in my parent's backyard in SA is close to 50 feet tall, and that was a BEAR to dig the hole! Hit solid rock about 4 inches down. Had to chip away at it with a pick ax. My dad and I took turns with the pick ax. We tested the hole with water. Poured water in it, and it was still there the next day. So we chipped at it some more. Put water in it, then it finally slowly drained off after a few hours. I guess it worked, because the little twiggy tree has taken over 1/3 of his 75 foot long backyard. The city has overhead utilities that it has grown close to. They have had to come in and shave it down to that kind of "U" shape on the side of it. Kind of sucks that way, but it's still going strong. Had no idea of the size it would get eventually! We thought we had it centered away from lines at the time. Anyway.

[bubba hotep]

FWD has added pops in for N. Texas again for nocturnal storms with svr potential. This pattern seems to be stagnating with N. Texas "stuck" in this storm cycle. I surely won't complain!

[opticsguy]

I went back in time on the SPC mesoscale site and none of the hail parameters were very high at all when this storm hit. Shear values were very how. I was under the impression that shear was needed to make a supercell.

[TheProfessor]

I went back in time on the SPC mesoscale site and none of the hail parameters were very high at all when this storm hit. Shear values were very how. I was under the impression that shear was needed to make a supercell.

You do need fairly strong shear for a Supercell and although the velocities were fairly weak this morning the directional shear was definitely impressive enough as evident in the curved hodograph.

[TheProfessor]

0z skew-t tonight definitely isn't as impressive as last night. A little bit less CAPE then yesterday evening, a touch of an inversion and lower dewpoints. However there is slightly more shear at the surface and fairly decent directional shear like last night. If we do see storms pop up again I wouldn't be surprised to see at least golf ball sized hail possible if the CAPE doesn't drastically drop off.

[bubba hotep]

The 18z TXTech and 00z 3K NAM bring a complex across OK overnight and into N. Texas tomorrow afternoon.

Yea, the atmosphere was juiced up across N. Texas last night!

[bubba hotep]

Pic from @AMetzger9 on Twitter of the storm this morning:

[opticsguy]

You do need fairly strong shear for a Supercell and although the velocities were fairly weak this morning the directional shear was definitely impressive enough as evident in the curved hodograph.

Just noted that. I was under the impression you needed 850mb winds from the West to feed in dry air. 500mb from the north, and LLJ from the south. Obviously enough shear.

[bubba hotep]

Models have really struggled with this complex of storms over night and there are some low end chances they survive into N. Texas later today.




Mesoscale Discussion 0661
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0842 AM CDT Thu Jun 07 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Oklahoma and north Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 071342Z - 071545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to briefly severe storms is expected
to progress south/southeast towards the Red River through this
afternoon. Isolated gusty, damaging winds and possibly a marginally
severe hail report or two may occur. Trends will be monitored, but
watch issuance is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Current radar mosaic data illustrate a cluster of
thunderstorms over central Oklahoma this morning, and the 12Z OUN
sounding suggests a modest 850mb low-level jet (LLJ) and related
warm advection are sustaining this complex. Through the morning
hours, weak mean convective layer flow and the south/southwesterly
LLJ should encourage continued south-southeast movement of the
complex. KTLX Z/ZDR data confirm that new updrafts are generally
being focused along the southern portion of the complex.

The OUN observed sounding sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, which
will enable robust updraft acceleration. However, weak mid-level
flow will likely limit overall organization. Subsequently, the hail
threat should be isolated/sparse at most, especially considering the
amount of melting likely occurring below 10K ft. The damaging wind
threat may be slightly greater, owing to sustained southward
propagation and the 700-500mb EML noted in the sounding.
Nonetheless, the severe threat should be limited enough to preclude
watch issuance as the cluster tracks towards the Red River through
mid-day.

..Picca/Weiss.. 06/07/2018

[DonWrk]

Wow the WPC really whiffed on all that rain in Oklahoma...

[TheProfessor]

You do need fairly strong shear for a Supercell and although the velocities were fairly weak this morning the directional shear was definitely impressive enough as evident in the curved hodograph.

Just noted that. I was under the impression you needed 850mb winds from the West to feed in dry air. 500mb from the north, and LLJ from the south. Obviously enough shear.

Well, you don't want dry air at the 850 level, you want a very small dewpoint depression. But yes around the 700 mb level you want dry air to intrude. That's of course the textbook setup for Supercells and tornadoes, however, things are hardly ever textbook in the real weather world. the Jarrell Texas tornado is an example of this. Also I don't believe you ever want a north wind at the 500mb, that would mean you're on the backside of a trough which is where negative vorticity is located. Your 200ish-500mb winds aren't and don't need to turn that much, in fact you want these winds to be in similar directions increasing in speed. You only want turning in the lowest 3 kilometers when it comes to supercells and tornadoes. Again that's textbook though and doesn't happen all the time.

[bubba hotep]

Another update on that stubborn cluster of storms over Ok:


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1246 PM CDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.UPDATE...
Another quick update to the forecast for the remainder of the
afternoon into the early evening hours. The complex of
thunderstorms to the north appears to be reinvigorated along a
southward moving outflow boundary as surface based instability
continues to climb. Surface objective analysis indicates that this
area of convection is moving into an axis of much stronger
instability and this trend has been reflected in the latest radar
imagery. A well established cold pool now appears to be in place
and it is appearing more likely that the convection will be able
to sustain itself for several more hours as it moves south. We're
going to update the PoPs across the region mainly along and north
of I-20 and increase them to 20-40%. Uncertainty does remain
higher than normal at this time based on a couple of things.
Visible satellite imagery shows a noticeable lack of cumulus ahead
of the complex, so it's unclear whether or not stronger subsidence
may be present and will eventually have an impact on ongoing
convection. Also, the KFDR radar shows an outflow boundary now
ahead of the main cluster of convection. Again, if this continues
to surge southward, the convection could weaken over time.

All that being said, the atmosphere across North Texas does remain
unstable and would support continued convection into the evening
hours.

Dunn

[Yukon Cornelius]

Temps have dropped into the 80s ahead of these storms.

[bubba hotep]

The models still can't get handle on these. Go Storms Go!