ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[USTropics]

Model forecast error after yesterday's model runs and last night's 00z input, really shows how well the 3 day UKMET accuracy was (even better then the NHC track):

[Dean4Storms]

Recon first pass looks like 991mb and winds 30kts around center.

[Dean4Storms]

Tornado Warning
FLC039-077-281200-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0019.180528T1131Z-180528T1200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
731 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2018

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Gadsden County in Big Bend of Florida...
Northeastern Liberty County in Big Bend of Florida...

* Until 800 AM EDT.

* At 730 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 11 miles south of Greensboro, or 14 miles southwest of
Quincy, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Greensboro around 800 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Lowry,
Juniper, Sycamore, Roy and Sawdust.

[flamingosun]

TWC is reporting a TORNADO WARNING for Gadsden and Liberty counties in the Florida panhandle.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
700 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

...ALBERTO MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 86.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSE OF DESTIN FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 86.0 West. Alberto
is moving northward near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster northward or
north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Alberto will cross the northern
Gulf Coast in the warning area this afternoon or evening. After
landfall, the system is forecast to move well inland into the
Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes
region on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Alberto reaches
the northern Gulf Coast later today. Steady weakening is forecast
after landfall, and Alberto will likely become a subtropical
depression tonight or early Tuesday and degenerate into a remnant
low by Tuesday afternoon.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the
center. An elevated observing station located about 15 miles (25
km) south of Apalachicola, Florida, has recently reported sustained
winds of 46 mph (74 km/h). A wind gust to 39 mph (63 km/h) was
recently observed at Apalachicola, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure from reconnaissance aircraft
data is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of
20 to 25 inches.

The Florida panhandle into much of Alabama and western Georgia...4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and Florida peninsula...Additional 1 to 4 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid
Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the
southeast United States, including Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread across the warning area
throughout the day.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Navarre Florida...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible today from
northern Florida into central and southern Georgia, southern South
Carolina, and southeastern Alabama.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will continue to affect the
eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

...ALBERTO MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 86.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSE OF DESTIN FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

[Dean4Storms]

56kt Flight Level Wind NE of Center in that convective band.

[wxman57]

Those higher SFMR winds are highly suspect in the heavier squalls. They passed directly over the buoy south of Apalachicola over the past hour. Peak sustained winds there were 40 kts. Any tropical storm-force winds will be confined to the immediate coast near Apalachicola this morning.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sgof1

[tropicwatch]

Not so sure about the 7am NHC cone. It needs to start moving northwest pretty quickly.

[Dean4Storms]

Those higher SFMR winds are highly suspect in the heavier squalls. They passed directly over the buoy south of Apalachicola over the past hour. Peak sustained winds there were 40 kts. Any tropical storm-force winds will be confined to the immediate coast near Apalachicola this morning.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sgof1

Those higher winds were a bit further West than that buoy which is SSE of Apalachicola. Those winds might also get into Panama City to Port Saint Joe if the center is tracking NNW.

[Dean4Storms]

Those higher SFMR winds are highly suspect in the heavier squalls. They passed directly over the buoy south of Apalachicola over the past hour. Peak sustained winds there were 40 kts. Any tropical storm-force winds will be confined to the immediate coast near Apalachicola this morning.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sgof1

Those higher winds were a bit further West than that buoy which is SSE of Apalachicola. Those winds might also get into Panama City to Port Saint Joe if the center is tracking NNW.

But overall certainly agree, going to be maybe some 30kt winds with some higher gusts for most of the coast the way it looks.

[wxman57]

I'm seeing movement a bit east of north over the past few hours. More of a due north motion now. Certainly no strong winds near the center. It's that little arc of squalls N-NE of the center that has some TS winds. Here's a screenshot of my workstation. Not exactly blowing at Panama City as the center approaches. Alberto's squalls north of the center should reach Panama City in the next hour.

[txwatcher91]

Based on those verification scores, who would have thought the CMC and UK would be the two best performing models with Alberto and Euro one of the worst?

[Dean4Storms]

I have a Davis Instruments Vantage Pro on my roof here between Destin and PCB and so far very little wind or rain.....

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KFLMIRAM6

[euro6208]

The Atlantic again showing the other basins that looks and no dvorak doesn't matter when you have recon.

[caneman]

Based on those verification scores, who would have thought the CMC and UK would be the two best performing models with Alberto and Euro one of the worst?

Not surprised by UKMET, theyve been coming on strong lately. A model that must be given equal weight to now.

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
#Alberto is fairly ragged on radar this morning but is still bringing storm surge, heavy rain and possible tornadoes to the #Florida panhandle #flwx

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1001082854816780290

[ObsessedMiami]

Boy the peninsula really threading the needle with most of the tail rain shield remaining *just* offshore to the east

[PSUHiker31]

Alberto not really building as much convection as models suggested. Nice job by the HRRR picking up that eastward bump

[eastcoastFL]

Boy the peninsula really threading the needle with most of the tail rain shield remaining *just* offshore to the east

Will that come on shore as the core pulls north?