ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[tropicwatch]

Looks like it is starting to move again. Rainbands are progressing northward now.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 280451
AF306 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 48 20180528
044200 2833N 08607W 8428 01424 9925 +180 +142 060014 018 021 000 03
044230 2832N 08606W 8429 01420 9920 +184 +142 058010 012 018 000 03
044300 2830N 08605W 8425 01426 9918 +189 +144 074007 009 014 000 00
044330 2829N 08604W 8436 01415 9917 +190 +144 090003 005 015 000 03
044400 2827N 08604W 8429 01420 9914 +190 +159 066001 002 017 000 00
044430 2825N 08604W 8428 01421 9916 +189 +144 313002 002 018 000 00
044500 2824N 08604W 8430 01419 9917 +185 +151 237001 002 017 000 00
044530 2822N 08605W 8433 01420 9922 +183 +151 311001 001 013 001 03
044600 2822N 08606W 8413 01434 9921 +178 +151 009004 006 015 000 00
044630 2822N 08608W 8418 01436 9924 +180 +149 009010 012 016 000 00
044700 2822N 08611W 8416 01437 9926 +176 +153 006017 019 022 000 00
044730 2822N 08613W 8422 01431 9928 +178 +154 003021 022 028 000 00
044800 2822N 08616W 8424 01434 9930 +179 +157 001025 027 031 000 00
044830 2822N 08618W 8422 01441 9933 +182 +159 005030 031 033 000 00
044900 2823N 08621W 8424 01442 9938 +180 +160 008032 032 034 000 00
044930 2823N 08623W 8425 01446 9945 +176 +160 010035 036 035 001 00
045000 2823N 08626W 8422 01453 9954 +170 +161 011037 038 036 000 03
045030 2823N 08628W 8425 01455 9961 +166 +161 009038 040 037 000 00
045100 2823N 08631W 8423 01461 9964 +166 +161 010040 041 039 000 05
045130 2823N 08634W 8425 01462 9970 +162 +159 009038 040 041 000 01
$$

Pressure 991mb.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it is starting to move again. Rainbands are progressing northward now.

yeah moving well left of the nhc forecast..

if it stays on its current heading. looks like a Pensacola or mobile strike.

[Aric Dunn]

there is now moderate convection wrapped around 3/4 of the center on radar. best it has ever looked. slow improving..

this is easily fully tropical now..

[SunnyThoughts]

I see that as well on radar, 2/3 wrapped. No way its going to Panama City unless it turns north right NOW then hooks NE . farther west in my opinion as well.

[Aric Dunn]

IT has also finally moved west enough over warm waters again. looks like that is aiding the convection. dry air is slowly being filtered out. still has a small chance of strengthen some more.

[tarheelprogrammer]

One of the ugliest looking storms I can remember. Looks similar to storms in the N. Atlantic. Ewwwww.

[Sciencerocks]

He appears like he's probably going to attempt to convince the nhc that he's tropical the last 12 hours of his time over water based on the "Ir" satellite. Convection is bursting near the center instead of away from it the past hour or so...This tells me that it drawls its energy in a "more" tropical manner compared to earlier today. If this burst of convection grows over night this thing will be extremely hard for the nhc to ignore by morning!

[bamajammer4eva]

GFS failed to show up tonight

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1000960005330427906




So here is the latest Euro

[Alyono]

GFS and all NCEP models ran just fine. It seems to be a public ftp site that is done. I was able to get the HWRF and HMON from a different ftp server

[aperson]

0z ecmwf 989mb just W of Panama City

[bamajammer4eva]

Euro wind gusts loop



Source
https://weather.us/

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like it is still struggling against the dry air but as it moves closer to the coast is may still fire up a quick CDO feature like Cindy last year.

[Twisted-core]

Dead core..........

[tropicwatch]

Might be about to do another loop. Looks like a fairly significant jog eastward last couple of sat loops.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like it is still struggling against the dry air but as it moves closer to the coast is may still fire up a quick CDO feature like Cindy last year.

Looks like it is doing ok working the dry air out this morning. (graphic might take a minute to load)

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

...ALBERTO HOLDING 65-MPH WINDS...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 86.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF DESTIN FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch south of Suwannee River has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 86.2 West. The
storm has slowed down recently, but a longer-term motion is to
the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster north-northwestward to
northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Alberto will cross the northern Gulf
Coast in the warning area this afternoon or evening. The weakening
system is forecast to move well inland into the Tennessee Valley on
Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Wednesday
and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Alberto reaches
the northern Gulf Coast later today. Steady weakening is forecast
after landfall, and Alberto will likely become a subtropical
depression tonight or early Tuesday and degenerate into a remnant
low by Tuesday afternoon.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of
20 to 25 inches.

The Florida panhandle into much of Alabama and western Georgia...4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and Florida peninsula...Additional 1 to 4 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid
Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the
southeast United States, including Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread across the warning area
throughout the day.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Navarre Florida...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible today from
northern Florida into central and southern Georgia, southern South
Carolina, and southeastern Alabama.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will continue to affect the
eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi





Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Alberto is holding its strength this morning. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters investigated the cyclone a few hours ago and found
winds to the north of the center that still support an intensity of
about 55 kt. The aircraft data and a NOAA buoy near the center also
indicate that the minimum pressure has dropped a little more to 990
mb. Deep convection remains patchy, however, due to pronounced dry
slots, but Doppler radar images do show some convective bands moving
onshore over the Florida Panhandle.

Given the short period of time before Alberto makes landfall,
its overall ragged appearance, and proximity to dry air, little
change in strength is expected before the subtropical storm reaches
the coast this afternoon. Once Alberto is inland, land interaction
should cause steady weakening to a subtropical depression tonight or
early Tuesday and to a remnant low by Tuesday afternoon. The global
models show the low being absorbed by a frontal system over the
Great Lakes region by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is largely
an update of the previous one, and is in line with the majority of
the guidance.

The center of Alberto has wobbled to the left and slowed down
significantly during the past 6 hours, but a longer-term motion is
northwestward, or 315 degrees, at 6 kt. A north-northwestward to
northward motion along the western periphery of a mid-level ridge is
expected during the next few days taking Alberto, or its remnants,
over the Florida Panhandle and then well inland over the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys. A turn to the northeast is predicted before
Alberto's remnants are absorbed by the above-mentioned frontal
system. The models are in fairly good agreement, and only small
changes were made to the previous NHC track prediction.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding
across the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia
through tonight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the
western Carolinas, and Tennessee on Tuesday. A risk of flooding and
flash flooding will continue over western Cuba, the Florida Keys,
and southern Florida today.

2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern
Gulf Coast today, including areas well east of the track of
Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area are
encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government
officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the
tropical storm warning area today.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 28.6N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 30.1N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 32.1N 86.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1800Z 34.6N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0600Z 37.4N 87.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0600Z 43.0N 86.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z 48.0N 81.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Nimbus]

Overnight it appears Alberto has decided to roll NNE towards Tallahasee. The dry air environment has limited intensification but there still could be power outages from downed tree limbs with tropical storm force winds.

[wxman57]

I'm seeing winds 10-15 kts all along the FL Panhandle this morning. No sign of any strong wind in the offshore buoys. Calling this a 65 mph storm may be overstating its winds. It's hard to get strong surface wind without much convection. Just go inland, Alberto!

[tropicwatch]

Looks like Alberto is sliding just east of track and convection is building around the circulation. It is kind of like a Timex for those that remember the commercial.