ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 280101
AF306 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 25 20180528
005200 2943N 08417W 8430 01533 //// +152 //// 137022 022 019 001 01
005230 2942N 08418W 8431 01531 //// +154 //// 136021 022 019 000 01
005300 2941N 08419W 8428 01534 //// +150 //// 135022 022 018 000 01
005330 2940N 08421W 8432 01528 //// +150 //// 137021 022 019 000 01
005400 2939N 08422W 8428 01534 //// +150 //// 138022 023 018 000 01
005430 2938N 08423W 8430 01530 //// +152 //// 140024 024 018 000 01
005500 2937N 08425W 8425 01534 //// +153 //// 137024 024 018 000 01
005530 2935N 08426W 8433 01526 //// +152 //// 133023 023 018 000 01
005600 2934N 08427W 8430 01528 //// +150 //// 133024 025 018 000 05
005630 2933N 08429W 8429 01527 //// +150 //// 134027 027 018 000 01
005700 2932N 08430W 8432 01525 //// +149 //// 133027 027 018 000 01
005730 2931N 08431W 8430 01526 //// +149 //// 132026 027 017 000 01
005800 2930N 08433W 8431 01525 //// +149 //// 133026 027 018 000 01
005830 2929N 08434W 8430 01525 //// +145 //// 133027 027 018 000 01
005900 2927N 08436W 8429 01525 //// +144 //// 134027 027 018 000 01
005930 2926N 08437W 8431 01523 //// +146 //// 136026 027 018 000 01
010000 2925N 08438W 8426 01524 //// +147 //// 134027 028 017 000 01
010030 2924N 08440W 8429 01522 //// +150 //// 134028 029 018 000 01
010100 2923N 08441W 8430 01521 //// +149 //// 135029 029 019 000 01
010130 2922N 08442W 8429 01519 //// +148 //// 136030 031 019 000 01
$$
;

[RL3AO]

Good call not issuing a hurricane watch/warning. Maybe some thunderstorm will give recon a 70kt FL wind by tomorrow morning, but I don't see any part of the panhandle getting a 1 minute sustained 64 knot wind tomorrow. A gust in a downdraft? Sure. But not a 1-minute wind. Hurricane watches/warnings need to verify or they lose their impact when issued.

[gatorcane]

looks like he hit the brakes.

Could you post a link to a sat view?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 280111
AF306 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 26 20180528
010200 2921N 08444W 8432 01517 //// +150 //// 133031 032 021 000 01
010230 2919N 08445W 8429 01519 //// +152 //// 135031 031 020 000 01
010300 2918N 08446W 8429 01519 //// +146 //// 134032 033 021 000 01
010330 2917N 08447W 8430 01517 //// +145 //// 135033 034 021 000 01
010400 2916N 08449W 8425 01520 //// +140 //// 133029 033 023 001 01
010430 2915N 08450W 8433 01514 //// +152 //// 134030 031 024 000 01
010500 2914N 08451W 8430 01514 //// +151 //// 133032 032 022 000 01
010530 2913N 08453W 8429 01514 //// +153 //// 133032 033 021 000 01
010600 2911N 08454W 8429 01514 //// +150 //// 133032 033 021 000 01
010630 2910N 08455W 8428 01515 //// +148 //// 133033 034 022 001 01
010700 2909N 08457W 8431 01509 //// +150 //// 133035 035 023 001 01
010730 2908N 08458W 8425 01516 //// +150 //// 132035 035 026 000 01
010800 2907N 08459W 8429 01510 //// +146 //// 132035 036 025 000 05
010830 2906N 08501W 8434 01503 //// +144 //// 131038 039 026 000 01
010900 2905N 08502W 8431 01505 //// +144 //// 137038 040 027 000 01
010930 2903N 08503W 8429 01508 //// +143 //// 135040 042 025 001 05
011000 2902N 08505W 8435 01500 //// +149 //// 130042 043 027 001 01
011030 2901N 08506W 8426 01508 //// +145 //// 130043 044 027 000 01
011100 2900N 08507W 8430 01502 //// +146 //// 127042 043 026 000 01
011130 2859N 08509W 8432 01498 //// +146 //// 130044 044 031 000 01
$$
;

[bella_may]

Good call not issuing a hurricane watch/warning. Maybe some thunderstorm will give recon a 70kt FL wind by tomorrow morning, but I don't see any part of the panhandle getting a 1 minute sustained 64 knot wind tomorrow. A gust in a downdraft? Sure. But not a 1-minute wind. Hurricane watches/warnings need to verify or they lose their impact when issued.

If it keeps strengthening though I think they will in the next advisory

[slamdaddy]

Good call not issuing a hurricane watch/warning. Maybe some thunderstorm will give recon a 70kt FL wind by tomorrow morning, but I don't see any part of the panhandle getting a 1 minute sustained 64 knot wind tomorrow. A gust in a downdraft? Sure. But not a 1-minute wind. Hurricane watches/warnings need to verify or they lose their impact when issued.

Not questioning you, or being a smart butt...but a 70 or 75 mph gust for less than 20 seconds will bring down trees and do roof damage. So the sustained 1 minute average does not apply, I think. Just putting in by penny worths

[BobHarlem]

Good call not issuing a hurricane watch/warning. Maybe some thunderstorm will give recon a 70kt FL wind by tomorrow morning, but I don't see any part of the panhandle getting a 1 minute sustained 64 knot wind tomorrow. A gust in a downdraft? Sure. But not a 1-minute wind. Hurricane watches/warnings need to verify or they lose their impact when issued.

If it keeps strengthening though I think they will in the next advisory

That dry air is a big reason they wouldn't though. That and the cry wolf effect. However I'm almost positive there are arguments going on about doing it or not right now at the NHC.

[RL3AO]

Good call not issuing a hurricane watch/warning. Maybe some thunderstorm will give recon a 70kt FL wind by tomorrow morning, but I don't see any part of the panhandle getting a 1 minute sustained 64 knot wind tomorrow. A gust in a downdraft? Sure. But not a 1-minute wind. Hurricane watches/warnings need to verify or they lose their impact when issued.

Not questioning you, or being a smart butt...but a 70 or 75 mph gust for less than 20 seconds will bring down trees and do roof damage. So the sustained 1 minute average does not apply, I think. Just putting in by penny worths

You're right but the requirement to verify a hurricane is a sustained 1 minute wind of 74 mph. It's not like the one city block that would experience a 75 mph gust will do anything different to their houses if a hurricane warning is issued at 11 pm vs not issued. But issuing a hurricane warning for a million people (wild guess on the FL Panhandle population density) will further the problem of "it's only a cat 1" even though those people likely didn't see any gusts over 50 mph.

[Aric Dunn]

Pressure probably down a few more mb

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 280121
AF306 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 27 20180528
011200 2858N 08510W 8426 01504 //// +144 //// 130045 045 031 001 01
011230 2856N 08511W 8430 01497 //// +148 //// 129045 047 031 001 01
011300 2855N 08513W 8433 01490 //// +141 //// 126047 047 032 001 01
011330 2854N 08514W 8432 01492 //// +138 //// 123047 048 033 000 01
011400 2853N 08515W 8422 01498 //// +140 //// 123047 048 035 001 05
011430 2852N 08517W 8432 01485 //// +140 //// 124046 047 037 000 01
011500 2851N 08518W 8429 01485 //// +135 //// 121045 046 037 001 01
011530 2849N 08519W 8435 01476 //// +140 //// 125054 059 037 001 01
011600 2848N 08521W 8432 01477 //// +145 //// 128059 059 038 001 01
011630 2847N 08522W 8426 01477 //// +141 //// 129060 061 042 000 01
011700 2846N 08523W 8431 01468 //// +140 //// 128061 063 044 002 01
011730 2845N 08525W 8437 01458 //// +133 //// 128060 061 044 001 01
011800 2844N 08526W 8432 01456 //// +134 //// 128061 064 043 006 01
011830 2843N 08527W 8429 01460 //// +129 //// 125058 062 045 011 01
011900 2841N 08529W 8432 01454 //// +131 //// 124048 055 049 015 05
011930 2840N 08530W 8435 01446 //// +134 //// 127039 047 050 012 05
012000 2839N 08531W 8430 01449 //// +145 //// 122036 036 046 010 01
012030 2838N 08533W 8429 01448 //// +142 //// 127034 036 044 005 05
012100 2837N 08534W 8432 01444 //// +149 //// 125035 036 042 007 01
012130 2835N 08535W 8429 01444 //// +154 //// 124033 035 039 005 01
$$
;

64 kt FL, 46 kt SFMR in NE quad.

[slamdaddy]

Good call not issuing a hurricane watch/warning. Maybe some thunderstorm will give recon a 70kt FL wind by tomorrow morning, but I don't see any part of the panhandle getting a 1 minute sustained 64 knot wind tomorrow. A gust in a downdraft? Sure. But not a 1-minute wind. Hurricane watches/warnings need to verify or they lose their impact when issued.

Not questioning you, or being a smart butt...but a 70 or 75 mph gust for less than 20 seconds will bring down trees and do roof damage. So the sustained 1 minute average does not apply, I think. Just putting in by penny worths

You're right but the requirement to verify a hurricane is a sustained 1 minute wind of 74 mph. It's not like the one city block that would experience a 75 mph gust will do anything different to their houses if a hurricane warning is issued at 11 pm vs not issued. But issuing a hurricane warning for a million people (wild guess on the FL Panhandle population density) will further the problem of "it's only a cat 1" even though those people likely didn't see any gusts over 50 mph.

Knowing what we know, even a cat 3, normally most will not experience those winds. May just be a small pocket. It may differ sometimes, but in general most wont.

[chaser1]

It's interesting to note that in the marine advisory they state there are NO 50 kt winds in the NW quadrant... Yet the most recent recon penetration measured surface winds of 50 knots 24 nm NNW of the center. Given it still has 18 hours over water, I find that dubious that these winds will diminish. I am not trying to be hyper-critical, just that I would prefer they err on side of caution and just go with the objective measurements. As of now 50 knot winds appear to exist 24 miles in the northwest quadrant. So why won't they exist later?

I can't speak for NHC but do consider this. A storm moving toward the northwest technically would have it's strongest winds around it's front forward motion "quadrant". Part of that affect is caused by accentuating the speed of the storms' max winds by the additional speed of a storms forward motion. That could very well cause a northwest moving storm to have its strongest winds toward the direction (and of course the storm's "right-front quadrant"). The moment however that such a storm might suddenly begin a sharp turn to the north, "it's right front quadrant" (now toward the north and east) will typically experience the worst weather. Now suddenly, it would be the storms northwest and especially its southwest quadrants where a net decrease effect in the storms max winds might be felt, in part as a result of the storms forward motion.

[DestinHurricane]

levi cowans site says recon just found 64kt winds, is that legit?

[stormhunter7]

Pressure probably down a few more mb

were about to find out. looks like they just went through coc in last 5 mins?

[Aric Dunn]

I knew they would likely find higher winds in that convection.. hurricane force at flight level. Winds should be upped to 70 mph

[chaser1]

(I better lay off the night-time coffee )

[N2FSU]

looks like he hit the brakes.

Are my eyes deceiving me, or does it appear to have done a cyclonic loop?

[stormhunter7]

011800 2844N 08526W 8432 01456 //// +134 //// 128061 064 043 006 01

NE Quad too! All thats missing is towers.

[stormhunter7]

Almost looks like an ULL is right over the coc?

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 280131
AF306 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 28 20180528
012200 2834N 08537W 8429 01443 //// +159 //// 122034 034 038 005 01
012230 2833N 08538W 8429 01437 //// +159 //// 120034 034 036 003 01
012300 2832N 08539W 8430 01435 //// +159 //// 124031 034 030 001 01
012330 2831N 08541W 8430 01434 //// +160 //// 124029 032 030 001 01
012400 2829N 08542W 8429 01432 //// +160 //// 118026 027 029 001 01
012430 2828N 08543W 8432 01428 //// +163 //// 116026 027 028 000 01
012500 2827N 08544W 8428 01429 //// +165 //// 106023 027 029 000 05
012530 2825N 08545W 8430 01423 //// +169 //// 101020 022 029 000 01
012600 2824N 08545W 8429 01425 //// +170 //// 097017 018 027 000 01
012630 2822N 08546W 8430 01421 //// +167 //// 101017 017 027 001 05
012700 2820N 08546W 8433 01418 //// +169 //// 098016 017 023 000 01
012730 2819N 08547W 8429 01420 //// +170 //// 110012 015 022 000 05
012800 2817N 08547W 8429 01420 //// +170 //// 126010 010 019 000 05
012830 2816N 08548W 8429 01413 //// +167 //// 127009 010 019 000 01
012900 2815N 08549W 8428 01416 //// +170 //// 121006 009 019 000 05
012930 2813N 08550W 8429 01415 //// +172 //// 101005 005 017 001 01
013000 2812N 08551W 8429 01413 //// +175 //// 104004 004 018 000 01
013030 2810N 08551W 8431 01410 //// +184 //// 061003 004 016 000 01
013100 2808N 08552W 8429 01412 //// +185 //// 306007 010 016 000 05
013130 2807N 08553W 8423 01417 //// +182 //// 303014 016 019 000 01
$$
;

Pressure looks to be 991-992mb looking at the heights.