ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[SunnyThoughts]

This is getting interesting for those of us in Santa Rosa county. I get the sense that some let their guard down a bit when the track moved Eastward. It now seems to be swinging back our way.

Yeah, I think you are right. I'm in Pace, between Pensacola and Milton...will keep watching until the system is inland here.

Howdy neighbor! I'm in Pace as well...

Take care...Im down in the Floridatown area with tons of trees. Worried mostly though about power outage and how long it normally takes for them to restore it after tropical storms and such. Of course no worries about any of that if it goes in East of us, which as of now it is forecast to do. We shall see.

[PSUHiker31]

Might have lost comms with recon. No reports last 30 minutes.

Mine are up to date

[Orlando]

Some of our local mets missed the call on this one. They were calling for torrential rain with flooding. Now, this evening, they have changed their forecast to state that we will be in our normal weather pattern. Dry air moved in and took the threat off the storm's chance to be a serious event for central Florida.

Yep that was a bust of a forecast but I gotta tell you, how do you make that call when under normal circumstances nearly the entire state of Florida should've gotten mullet-slapped with rain today? Even with models hinting at dry air intrusion, it's hard to guess where that one feeder band is going to set up and what areas might receive a continual training effect. Don't get me wrong, I live here in Longwood and was shaking my head all day at just how dry it consistantly was - and remains here.

I'm in Dr. Phillips and saw very little rain early this morning. I believe that the mets did not factor in the dry air at all. I know that a few areas of FL got some good downpours, but I don't believe it was very widespread. I guess I should not complain since it wasn't severe, but my newly landscaped yard needs the extra water.

[stormreader]

This is getting interesting for those of us in Santa Rosa county. I get the sense that some let their guard down a bit when the track moved Eastward. It now seems to be swinging back our way.

Yeah, I think you are right. I'm in Pace, between Pensacola and Milton...will keep watching until the system is inland here.

Same old story, though.. If you’re in the cone, there’s not much excuse....Hate to be blunt, but....

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 280041
AF306 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 23 20180528
003200 2814N 08410W 8425 01520 0049 +147 +131 169040 041 028 000 00
003230 2817N 08410W 8429 01514 0050 +145 +135 168042 042 027 000 00
003300 2819N 08410W 8425 01518 //// +144 //// 168042 042 027 000 01
003330 2822N 08410W 8426 01516 //// +144 //// 167041 042 028 000 01
003400 2824N 08410W 8430 01514 //// +150 //// 166040 041 027 000 01
003430 2827N 08410W 8425 01519 //// +150 //// 165039 040 026 000 01
003500 2829N 08410W 8425 01520 //// +150 //// 161038 039 027 000 01
003530 2832N 08410W 8430 01515 //// +153 //// 159039 039 028 000 01
003600 2834N 08410W 8422 01522 //// +155 //// 159038 039 027 000 01
003630 2837N 08410W 8432 01514 //// +150 //// 158037 038 025 000 01
003700 2839N 08410W 8421 01525 //// +149 //// 160038 039 025 000 01
003730 2842N 08410W 8428 01520 //// +156 //// 158036 038 023 000 01
003800 2844N 08410W 8427 01522 //// +155 //// 156037 038 023 000 01
003830 2847N 08410W 8425 01523 //// +157 //// 155038 038 024 000 01
003900 2849N 08411W 8427 01522 //// +153 //// 156039 040 023 000 01
003930 2852N 08411W 8425 01525 //// +149 //// 156039 040 024 000 01
004000 2854N 08411W 8426 01525 //// +146 //// 153040 041 024 000 05
004030 2857N 08411W 8428 01523 0060 +147 +106 156039 040 025 000 00
004100 2859N 08411W 8427 01527 0061 +150 +073 156039 039 025 000 00
004130 2902N 08411W 8426 01527 0062 +147 +088 151037 038 023 000 01
$$
;

[MississippiHurricane]

Im in Milton, Fl off of 90....I guess tonight ill bring things into the house. I had not done so today thinking it was going to be "meh". Dont forget to keep your phones charged!!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Special Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
730 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

...ALBERTO STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 730 PM CDT...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 85.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 730 PM CDT (0030 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 85.7 West. The
storm is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
northwest to north-northwest motion with some decrease in forward
speed is expected overnight. A north-northwestward to northward
motion is expected Monday through Wednesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Alberto will move over the northern Gulf of Mexico
tonight and cross the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area on
Monday. Alberto is expected to move inland into the Tennessee Valley
on Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little additional strengthening is expected before Albert
reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Steady weakening is expected after
landfall, and Alberto is forecast to become a tropical depression
Monday night or Tuesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of
20-25 inches.

The Florida panhandle into much of Alabama and western Georgia...4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches,
isolated storm totals of 10 inches.

Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches.

Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid
Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the
southeast United States, including Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within
the warning area tonight and continue through Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to Navarre Florida...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight across
the central and northern Florida peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and
northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more
information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Subtropical Storm Alberto Special Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
730 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

This special advisory is being issued to show that, based on
observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft, that
Alberto strengthened to an intensity of 55 kt. Based on this, the
intensity forecast through 24 hours is revised upward. No change
has been made to the track forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the
Florida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday. Heavy
rain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida
Panhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle
into much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through
Tuesday.

2. A hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the
eastern Gulf Coast tonight and tomorrow, including areas well east
of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge
watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the
tropical storm warning area tonight and tomorrow.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0030Z 28.4N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
12H 28/0600Z 29.1N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 28/1800Z 30.4N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0600Z 32.2N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 34.7N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 39.7N 86.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/1800Z 45.1N 83.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Alyono]

Might have lost comms with recon. No reports last 30 minutes.

obs are coming in fine. Levi's site has not been functioning properly in terms of the recon data though

[DestinHurricane]

Destin, you should prepare for possible hurricane conditions tomorrow. Just saying it’s probably gonna be a little rockier than you may have figured.

yeah getting a bit worried about my boat on my lift

I don't know that I'd be overly concerned about a 20' boat on a lift, as much as I'd be a bit more concerned about a slightly enhanced risk of a nearby tree, debris or other weaker structure landing on it. Definitely make sure that boat plug is out.

The problem is im actually visiting family for the holiday weekend in b'ham and i have an extension cord sitting out charging the trolling motor and i cant prepare anything.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 272359 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012018
A. 27/23:37:50Z
B. 28 deg 17 min N
085 deg 38 min W
C. 850 mb 1338 m
D. 50 kt
E. 337 deg 24 nm
F. 076 deg 54 kt
G. 329 deg 35 nm
H. 992 mb
I. 15 C / 1523 m
J. 18 C / 1524 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF306 0501A ALBERTO OB 06 CCA
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 62 KT 132 / 42 NM 23:52:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 070 / 10 KT
;

[djones65]

It's interesting to note that in the marine advisory they state there are NO 50 kt winds in the NW quadrant... Yet the most recent recon penetration measured surface winds of 50 knots 24 nm NNW of the center. Given it still has 18 hours over water, I find that dubious that these winds will diminish. I am not trying to be hyper-critical, just that I would prefer they err on side of caution and just go with the objective measurements. As of now 50 knot winds appear to exist 24 miles in the northwest quadrant. So why won't they exist later?

[Dean4Storms]

Ok, NHC just going with a 65mph TS to landfall no changes to Watches or Warnings.

[stormhunter7]

Ok, NHC just going with a 65mph TS to landfall no changes to Watches or Warnings.

Indeed....

"This special advisory is being issued to show that, based on
observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft, that
Alberto strengthened to an intensity of 55 kt. Based on this, the
intensity forecast through 24 hours is revised upward. No change
has been made to the track forecast."

[deltadog03]

looks like he hit the brakes.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Might have lost comms with recon. No reports last 30 minutes.

obs are coming in fine. Levi's site has not been functioning properly in terms of the recon data though

The main FTP site to get recon data from is down. (ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/ur/urnt15.knhc..txt) I'm adding data into my site manually right now.

[PSUHiker31]

Well that was an anticlimactic special advisory

[caneman]

Funny thing is storms can strengthen with shallow convection. After jeanne in 2005 did the loop convection was very shallow but a inner core developed regardless. Then later on the convection deepened

Well I was wrong but it is crappy looking on radar

Oh, NO doubt!! I anticipated that we'd see some pressure falls any time soon. That doesn't mean for a moment that I think Alberto looks any better then "dog-meat" though

It looks like crap. I hadn't looked at satellite and radar in a few hours though so I presume it's been tightening up and shook out all that dry air...
Edit... just did now. That thing is neeked as a jaybird so hopefully wont get much rain from it

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 280051
AF306 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 24 20180528
004200 2904N 08411W 8426 01527 0062 +145 +130 146035 036 022 000 00
004230 2907N 08411W 8425 01529 0064 +145 +111 148034 035 022 000 05
004300 2909N 08411W 8425 01531 0064 +145 +127 147033 034 021 000 00
004330 2912N 08411W 8425 01532 0066 +146 +100 149033 034 021 000 03
004400 2914N 08411W 8426 01531 0065 +147 +114 149032 034 020 000 00
004430 2916N 08411W 8425 01532 //// +144 //// 149032 032 020 000 01
004500 2919N 08411W 8426 01533 //// +145 //// 149033 033 020 000 01
004530 2921N 08411W 8428 01532 //// +145 //// 149033 033 020 000 01
004600 2924N 08411W 8427 01533 //// +145 //// 146031 032 020 000 01
004630 2926N 08411W 8426 01534 //// +145 //// 147031 032 019 000 01
004700 2928N 08411W 8425 01535 //// +146 //// 150031 032 020 000 01
004730 2931N 08411W 8426 01535 //// +149 //// 145032 032 021 000 01
004800 2933N 08411W 8426 01534 //// +150 //// 143031 032 020 000 01
004830 2936N 08411W 8425 01536 //// +150 //// 141030 031 021 000 01
004900 2938N 08411W 8425 01537 //// +150 //// 141029 029 022 000 01
004930 2940N 08411W 8425 01538 //// +150 //// 139028 028 022 000 01
005000 2943N 08411W 8424 01540 //// +147 //// 139028 029 023 000 05
005030 2945N 08412W 8433 01536 //// +150 //// 139026 028 /// /// 05
005100 2946N 08414W 8441 01525 //// +150 //// 137023 025 /// /// 05
005130 2945N 08415W 8432 01531 //// +150 //// 140021 023 019 000 01
$$
;

[stormhunter7]

Look at all the low level dry air....

[NWFL56]

looks like he hit the brakes.

Could you post a link to a sat view?