ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[chaser1]

Some of our local mets missed the call on this one. They were calling for torrential rain with flooding. Now, this evening, they have changed their forecast to state that we will be in our normal weather pattern. Dry air moved in and took the threat off the storm's chance to be a serious event for central Florida.

Yep that was a bust of a forecast but I gotta tell you, how do you make that call when under normal circumstances nearly the entire state of Florida should've gotten mullet-slapped with rain today? Even with models hinting at dry air intrusion, it's hard to guess where that one feeder band is going to set up and what areas might receive a continual training effect. Don't get me wrong, I live here in Longwood and was shaking my head all day at just how dry it consistantly was - and remains here.

[cycloneye]

I smell a special advisory.

[eastcoastFL]

They should probably put up hurricane watch/warning?

Doubtful. Doesn't look like theres enough time to reach cat 1.

[Hammy]

They should probably put up hurricane watch/warning?

Doubtful. Doesn't look like theres enough time to reach cat 1.

If it's up to 65 there's certainly enough time especially considering most models show that any strengthening would be in the 12-18 hours before landfall.

[chaser1]

That doesn't look at all unreasonable

[Aric Dunn]

I smell a special advisory.

Especially if that convection around center yield higher winds.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 280002
AF306 0501A ALBERTO HDOB 19 20180527
235200 2746N 08505W 8429 01463 9996 +137 +112 201061 062 049 009 03
235230 2745N 08504W 8429 01467 9995 +145 +108 200059 061 047 004 00
235300 2744N 08502W 8430 01470 9999 +145 +105 200058 059 048 004 00
235330 2743N 08501W 8430 01471 0003 +143 +105 201057 057 046 003 00
235400 2742N 08500W 8429 01473 0004 +142 +129 203056 057 048 000 00
235430 2741N 08459W 8429 01475 0010 +137 +119 206055 056 045 001 00
235500 2740N 08458W 8421 01486 0017 +132 +115 210052 055 043 002 00
235530 2739N 08457W 8434 01476 0013 +144 +112 211052 053 040 000 00
235600 2738N 08456W 8429 01482 0017 +141 +110 210050 052 039 001 00
235630 2738N 08456W 8429 01482 0020 +140 +110 207050 050 038 001 00
235700 2736N 08453W 8430 01486 0023 +140 +110 207050 050 039 001 00
235730 2735N 08452W 8430 01489 0023 +141 +109 205047 049 040 002 00
235800 2734N 08451W 8430 01489 0024 +145 +107 203046 046 041 003 00
235830 2733N 08450W 8429 01491 0024 +146 +106 202045 045 041 003 00
235900 2732N 08449W 8430 01491 0028 +141 +105 201043 045 038 004 00
235930 2731N 08448W 8429 01494 0032 +137 +107 203040 041 038 004 00
000000 2730N 08446W 8428 01497 0032 +140 +110 202040 041 035 003 00
000030 2729N 08445W 8429 01495 0033 +136 +107 206041 042 036 003 00
000100 2727N 08444W 8432 01494 0034 +139 +107 205040 041 035 003 00
000130 2726N 08443W 8429 01498 0035 +141 +108 205039 040 035 002 00

[eastcoastFL]

Some of our local mets missed the call on this one. They were calling for torrential rain with flooding. Now, this evening, they have changed their forecast to state that we will be in our normal weather pattern. Dry air moved in and took the threat off the storm's chance to be a serious event for central Florida.

Yep that was a bust of a forecast but I gotta tell you, how do you make that call when under normal circumstances nearly the entire state of Florida should've gotten mullet-slapped with rain today? Even with models hinting at dry air intrusion, it's hard to guess where that one feeder band is going to set up and what areas might receive a continual training effect. Don't get me wrong, I live here in Longwood and was shaking my head all day at just how dry it consistantly was - and remains here.

I live in port st lucie and it seemed like the rain sat over me all day and the rest of the state was fairly dry. We are close to 4 inches of rain already today

[PSUHiker31]

They should probably put up hurricane watch/warning?

Doubtful. Doesn't look like theres enough time to reach cat 1.

SFMR at 65 on the SE side which wasn't even sampling the strongest part of Alberto

[BobHarlem]

HRRR has this doing a little loop tonight then head northward in the morning

Where does it show landfall?

It doesn't, it only goes out 18 hours, and it still hasn't made landfall yet. Actually extrapolating would be sometime pre-dawn on Tuesday, check https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 52722&fh=5

[CrazyC83]

I would go with 55 kt and issue a Hurricane Watch for a small part of the coast around Panama City.

[cycloneye]

I smell a special advisory.

Especially if that convection around center yield higher winds.

And over 60 at flight level.

061 047 004 00

[eastcoastFL]

They should probably put up hurricane watch/warning?

Doubtful. Doesn't look like theres enough time to reach cat 1.

If it's up to 65 there's certainly enough time especially considering most models show that any strengthening would be in the 12-18 hours before landfall.

I don't know if there is 12 hours left and don't they expect dry air to prevent strengthening as it approaches landfall? I could be wrong but I would be very surprised if it made cat1.

[cycloneye]

Subtropical Storm Alberto Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
700 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

..ALBERTO STRONGER...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that Alberto has strengthened and the maximum
sustained winds are now 65 mph (100 km/h) with
higher gusts. A special advisory will be issued within the hour.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 85.6W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

[Kazmit]

That escalated quickly.

[psyclone]

By any measure this is one impressive system and quite the start to the season.

[Aric Dunn]

Funny thing is storms can strengthen with shallow convection. After jeanne in 2005 did the loop convection was very shallow but a inner core developed regardless. Then later on the convection deepened

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Needs to become tropical before it can become a hurricane. This could hit 75mph and would still be considered a subtropical storm.

[CrazyC83]

If the forecast is 60 kt at landfall, I would definitely have a Hurricane Watch, as that is really within the error bar range.