ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[stormlover2013]

Looks like the 18Z NAVGEM has shifted east as well. Every model other than named EC has shifted east today it seems. Eastern Gulf looks quite possible at the moment.

Icon hasn’t shifted east or the jma

[ronjon]

Looks like the 18Z NAVGEM has shifted east as well. Every model other than named EC has shifted east today it seems. Eastern Gulf looks quite possible at the moment.

Yeah great point GC. Every model...the NAM, NAVGEM, CMC, and UKMET shifted east today...except for ECM....particularly in the 72-96 hr period. Eventually the models are hinting at a more NW turn after 4 days or so. GFS has been stubbornly persistent over west coast of florida or florida.

[cycloneye]

The 00z model suite.

[ronjon]

HWRF into western FL panhandle at 979 mb.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=90L&pkg=ref&runtime=2018052318&fh=114

[Aric Dunn]

Let the west shifts commence ....

[NDG]

Visible loop during the day before sunset, it is indeed getting better organized despite the westerly shear.

[SFLcane]

18z GFS ensembles..

[pcolaman]

Yep good ole windshield affect. We don't have a good llc yet and people are talking about the shifts lol

[Aric Dunn]

Given long term satellite estimates and surface obs. the circ is looking fairly stationary as it is still organizing some. but very evident on sat and from the obs. models will shift later if they are initialized correctly.

[tropicwatch]

I don't know if people are being told by some weather broadcast that it is going to this city or that city. I have been asked on my FB page is it still coming here or going there mentioning specific cities. My last update I had to finish with "An exact city or location can not be determined at this time". So they would stop asking, geez.

[tropicwatch]

Given long term satellite estimates and surface obs. the circ is looking fairly stationary as it is still organizing some. but very evident on sat and from the obs. models will shift later if they are initialized correctly.

Wow, that is closer to the BOC then the southern GOM than expected.

[boca]

I’m willing to bet that the NWS in Miami lowers the rain chances for this coming holiday weekend because the closet approach to S FL is about 450 miles away and the panhandle about 700 miles away. Even if the storm is lopsided to the east it will still be far enough away to not rain us out.

[Alyono]

HWRF into western FL panhandle at 979 mb.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=90L&pkg=ref&runtime=2018052318&fh=114

but it is not close to hurricane strength. Only 45-50 kts

[NDG]

The consensus model that the NHC loves to follow, 0z run.

[NDG]

Yep good ole windshield affect. We don't have a good llc yet and people are talking about the shifts lol

There's already a surface COC, good enough for models to handle it from now on an overall track, the question is if an LLC will form to the NE of it like the GFS shows.

[SouthFloridawx]

How much?

I’m willing to bet that the NWS in Miami lowers the rain chances for this coming holiday weekend because the closet approach to S FL is about 450 miles away and the panhandle about 700 miles away. Even if the storm is lopsided to the east it will still be far enough away to not rain us out.

[boca]

How much?

I’m willing to bet that the NWS in Miami lowers the rain chances for this coming holiday weekend because the closet approach to S FL is about 450 miles away and the panhandle about 700 miles away. Even if the storm is lopsided to the east it will still be far enough away to not rain us out.

I’ll bet a 6 pack of beer and this is for SE Florida not the Sarasota area.

[HeeBGBz]

We've been getting random downpours all day. I just got caught in one. I couldn't see anything. Just followed taillights. Got a three day weekend ahead that looks very wet. Hi from Biloxi. Good to see you again.

[SunnyThoughts]

We've been getting random downpours all day. I just got caught in one. I couldn't see anything. Just followed taillights. Got a three day weekend ahead that looks very wet. Hi from Biloxi. Good to see you again.

Had a thunderstorm come through here just to the east of Pensacola earlier as well. Not looking forward to all this rain this system is apparently going to bring us. WE could use some rain...but not that much.

[djones65]

In my opinion, it is comparable to wondering if Santa Claus will actually eat the cookies and drink the milk you left for him on Christmas Eve as a child.