ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[robbielyn]

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
300 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Currently, light to moderate east-southeast winds are across the
basin with locally fresh winds near the Yucatan Channel
associated with an elongated area of low pressure extending from
the eastern Yucatan Peninsula to inland western Honduras. Seas
are generally 2 to 3 ft in the western half of the basin while
altimeter data show seas in the range of 4 to 7 ft in the eastern
Gulf. The area of low pressure is expected to further develop
off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Fri morning. The
tropical low will move slowly northward in the eastern Gulf over
the weekend with up to near gale force winds and associated seas
east of the low. The global models consensus indicate the low
will reach the offshore waters of SE Louisiana Sunday morning,
then briefly stall in that region through Monday morning when the
low moves inland SE Louisiana. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and isolated tstms are possible over much
of Floria, the Yucatan Channel and the northeast Gulf.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml

I am confused. It says the low will move in the eastern gulf. But then mentions the low in or near louisiana which is the central gulf.

[robbielyn]

Also i know anything can happen, but these storms usually head to fl this time of year and though we don’t need the rain, how come it’s going to LA?

[boca]

Maybe it might hook and left or turn west once it’s up towards the Florida panhandle than slide along the coast until it hits Louisiana.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWx/status/999376433645572096

[gatorcane]

Wow look at the latest UKMET. Sends the system towards FL peninsula (like the GFS has been showing) then day 4 breaks off another low and sends it NW in the NE Gulf:

You can look at all of the UKMET frames here on this link as well as the other global models:
https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[Stormcenter]

Possibly a building Bermuda ridge to it's east?

Also i know anything can happen, but these storms usually head to fl this time of year and though we don’t need the rain, how come it’s going to LA?

[stormlover2013]

Going to all depend when the center forms

[SFLcane]

Euro precip forecast...

[SFLcane]

18z guidance...

[BYG Jacob]

Also i know anything can happen, but these storms usually head to fl this time of year and though we don’t need the rain, how come it’s going to LA?

You know we're in May and not October right?

[gatorcane]

I’m thinking that 90L will be far enough west that it will just miss us because by Saturday it will be 300 miles west of us and we will be in the sinking air just outside the circulation if you go by the Euro.

This is a very likely outcome..

Latest UKMET brings a lot of rain to South Florida and Florida with a track very similar to the GFS. I am a bit skeptical of the ECMWF Central GOM solution to be quite honest, I think shear pushes a mass of moisture over to Florida with a track more in the EGOM and closer to Florida, we'll see though.

[Ivanhater]

Euro showing about a foot of rain for Pensacola

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/al ... 1200z.html

[robbielyn]

Also i know anything can happen, but these storms usually head to fl this time of year and though we don’t need the rain, how come it’s going to LA?

You know we're in May and not October right?

Yes and storms a lot of the time go into the panhandle of fl as a lopsided system.

[psyclone]

Also i know anything can happen, but these storms usually head to fl this time of year and though we don’t need the rain, how come it’s going to LA?

You know we're in May and not October right?

She's correct. super early storms have a tendency to bend eastward at lower latitudes for the same reason they do late in the season...westerlies exert greater influence at lower latitudes. that doesn't mean it can't go to LA...in fact those westerly solutions look more probable now than they did 48 hours ago. Regardless, the QPF forecasts tell a bigger story and what they show says alot.... South Carolina and Georgia look to get more rain than much of Louisiana at this point and there is often a rather abrupt QPF cutoff on the western side compared to the east. It will be interesting to see exactly where that sets up. Someone appears likely to get a serious amount of rain and the current jackpot estimates over the Mobile CWA make sense if in fact the low does move into SE LA.

[TheStormExpert]

I’m thinking that 90L will be far enough west that it will just miss us because by Saturday it will be 300 miles west of us and we will be in the sinking air just outside the circulation if you go by the Euro.

This is a very likely outcome..

Latest UKMET brings a lot of rain to South Florida and Florida with a track very similar to the GFS. I am a bit skeptical of the ECMWF Central GOM solution to be quite honest, I think shear pushes a mass of moisture over to Florida with a track more in the EGOM and closer to Florida, we'll see though.

I respect your opinion but with the current guesstimated center being inland over the Yucatán wouldn’t that make the Euro more correct?

[Stormcenter]

Based on the latest EURO this may not be a "lopsided" storm after all but of course this still remains to be seen.

Also i know anything can happen, but these storms usually head to fl this time of year and though we don’t need the rain, how come it’s going to LA?

You know we're in May and not October right?

Yes and storms usually go into fl as a lopsided system.

[northjaxpro]

I’m thinking that 90L will be far enough west that it will just miss us because by Saturday it will be 300 miles west of us and we will be in the sinking air just outside the circulation if you go by the Euro.

This is a very likely outcome..

Latest UKMET brings a lot of rain to South Florida and Florida with a track very similar to the GFS. I am a bit skeptical of the ECMWF Central GOM solution to be quite honest, I think shear pushes a mass of moisture over to Florida with a track more in the EGOM and closer to Florida, we'll see though.

I agree with this assessment. The west and southwest shear will push a large area of rain well east of where eventually the center of the cyclone ends up in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Much of the Florida peninsula is lilely going to be drenched unfortunately this holiday weekend.

[Evil Jeremy]

I can't remember the last time model divergence caused such a stir, especially over such a minor system (yes, I know, heavy rain threat, but compared to monsters we've tracked here this is minor).

Just so everyone knows, here's the current score:
GFS = X
ECMWF = X(+/- Y)
TABs = X-∞

Anyways, prepping for a wet extended weekend. 90L should be nothing more than a friendly reminder to get your hurricane kits in order.

[robbielyn]

I can't remember the last time model divergence caused such a stir, especially over such a minor system (yes, I know, heavy rain threat, but compared to monsters we've tracked here this is minor).

Just so everyone knows, here's the current score:
GFS = X
ECMWF = X(+/- Y)
TABs = X-∞

Anyways, prepping for a wet extended weekend. 90L should be nothing more than a friendly reminder to get your hurricane kits in order.

The main fact this is our first storm and that it is may is the reason for the interest. Let us enjoy our tracking please.

[Aric Dunn]

This is a very likely outcome..

Latest UKMET brings a lot of rain to South Florida and Florida with a track very similar to the GFS. I am a bit skeptical of the ECMWF Central GOM solution to be quite honest, I think shear pushes a mass of moisture over to Florida with a track more in the EGOM and closer to Florida, we'll see though.

I agree with this assessment. The west and southwest shear will push a large area of rain well east of where eventually the center of the cyclone ends up in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Much of the Florida peninsula is lilely going to be drenched unfortunately this holiday weekend.

Unfortunately, the shear will turn ssw to S which is why the center on most of the models reforms north NOT to the NE. So any GFS solution would require the trough to not be as sharp with the exit region being wider.