ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

CMC is now stalling it just off shore for about a day before moving inland around the mouth of Mississippi. majority of models are now showing it being left behind in some form or fashion... not counting the silly operational GFS

[Dylan]

I’m really worried about this stalling/meandering just before or after landfall, and dumping catastrophic amounts of rain on somebody. There isn’t any evidence of a weakness that will pick it up around the time of landfall on any of the guidance. Very concerning.

[Aric Dunn]

I’m really worried about this stalling/meandering just before or after landfall, and dumping catastrophic amounts of rain on somebody. There isn’t any evidence of a weakness that will pick it up around the time of landfall on any of the guidance. Very concerning.

yeah, and it will cover multiple states.. no long wave trough at all. if it does not reform centers as often while moving north than its forward progress will be limited those center jumps are what is producing the fast motion with the models. and if that is the case then could remain offshore for awhile and do similar stuff to earlier Euro runs and now ICON .. have to wait for the upper trough to position itself and see where that shear axis sets up and its orientation. and.... well see how well defined a center we get before into moves into the gulf.

[galaxy401]

Ugh, hearing the word stalling right at landfall sends a chill to myself after the madness with Harvey. Hope that's not the case here.

[Dylan]

I’m really worried about this stalling/meandering just before or after landfall, and dumping catastrophic amounts of rain on somebody. There isn’t any evidence of a weakness that will pick it up around the time of landfall on any of the guidance. Very concerning.

yeah, and it will cover multiple states.. no long wave trough at all. if it does not reform centers as often while moving north than its forward progress will be limited those center jumps are what is producing the fast motion with the models. and if that is the case then could remain offshore for awhile and do similar stuff to earlier Euro runs and now ICON .. have to wait for the upper trough to position itself and see where that shear axis sets up and its orientation. and.... well see how well defined a center we get before into moves into the gulf.

It’s plain as day when you look at a 500mb chart of North America heading into Sunday and beyond. People way smarter than I am are pointing this out as well.

[USTropics]

UKMET plots, looks like a weaker system but a noticeable turn towards the NW at the end:

Code: Select all

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.05.2018

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 24.5N  84.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 28.05.2018  26.0N  84.0W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 28.05.2018  27.8N  85.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 29.05.2018  28.3N  85.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

[SouthFloridawx]

That was very interesting, thank you.

Interesting Twitter discussion by Philippe Papin on Invest 90L and its CAG (Central American Gyre) origin and key aspects of this kind of originating TC potential.

Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk

[CyclonicFury]

00z GEFS clustered near the Panhandle/Big Bend

[USTropics]

Not much change in the 00z ECMWF, time frame has slowed down by a day in terms of landfall with a slightly weaker vort signature, but looks to be a slow moving, heavy rain producing event once again in the NGOM/SE US:

[Dylan]

0z EURO to NOLA. It’s been no further west than south-central Louisiana and no further east than Gulfport, MS over the past 3 days. Very consistent. Only a matter of time until the GFS caves into the European, which is its anthem.

[Wx_Warrior]

Euro stuck on NOLA

[AtlanticWind]

0z EURO to NOLA. It’s been no further west than south-central Louisiana and no further east than Gulfport, MS over the past 3 days. Very consistent. Only a matter of time until the GFS caves into the European, which is its anthem.

The broad center will likely come ashore near NOLA, but the stronger bands will likely be much further
east over florida.

This should be a sheared right handed storm I would guess.

[stormreader]

Yeah...posted that Euro solution last night delivered through local met here in La. Beginning to look like very severe impacts (rainfall) for NOLA in particular. The forecasted stall by Euro also shows precip expanding westward (as you might imagine with weak steering) into SW La too. Could be very serious situation from Pensacola to La/Tex birder. I know that’s significantly further west than what was supposed a day or two ago. But becoming a very real possibility now.

[Twisted-core]

Just as well its a sheared environment in GOMEX this modelled storm should encounter,
well hoping it stays tamed by excessive shear.




https://imgur.com/quvymtq
Ukmet 00z thinks a stronger system may play out..Clearing the shear within the gyre.

[Sciencerocks]

I am putting a satellite loop once or twice per day as people in the future will want to know how the system looked at this point. It would add to the pleasure of looking back at the cyclone!

[northjaxpro]

Well, no change with the 06Z GFS. This run continues to show the boatload of rain moving over Florida. GFS still maintains Invest 90L has a weak, sloppy and sheared system. getting no stronger than 1002 mb as it moves over Florida during the weekend, then north into South Carolina on 12Z Monday. morning

[cycloneye]

JB goes with Euro.

@BigJoeBastardi
GFS continues to look like the feedback fairy has got it, Euro track toward central gulf coast of east side weighted feature looks much better to me

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/999233832183320576

[stormreader]

MId and upper levels are becoming less dry around the system. Could see more convection build overnight.

yep, and the southern GOM showing up pretty on Mimic TPW
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

Very nice....The gyre appears very distinctly in those images.
just in case anyone missed it. there is a new and improved TPW> >> http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

you can check multiple layers. its is very helpful

[TheStormExpert]

90L looks like total dried up crap this morning. The models showing a drier than normal MDR and Caribbean weren’t kidding!

[NotSparta]

The 2 day chances of formation are 0% for a reason, aren't they?