#7 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon May 21, 2018 5:03 pm
NWS Mobile, AL AFD....
.LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...There is much to discuss
during the period and all centers on the potential movement of the
surface low in the southern Gulf. As alluded to in the previous
section, the surface low will likely be organized as a purely
tropical (warm-core) system. There is still uncertainty with the
forecast movement of this system, but it is noted that the
Weather Prediction Centers Surface Fronts and Sea-Level Pressures
forecast maps reflect the guidance consensus of moving the
surface low northward this weekend to somewhere along the northern
Gulf coast, probably the north central or northeast Gulf coast.
At this point, it is too early to discuss much more than rain
chances for the area, but this pattern supports going with at
least likely pops through the period. For other impacts, such as
potential flooding concerns, coastal flooding potential and rip
current risk levels, these will be assessed as confidence
increases in the overall evolution and pattern during the period.
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