Texas Spring 2018

[weatherdude1108]

Feeling frustrated. Meanwhile in these parts, we'll be lucky to get a drop of rain, I guess, today. I don't prefer the severe storms, but are we even going to get a half inch out of this whole event? The cap is either your best friend, or worst enemy. And so the saga continues...

463
FXUS64 KEWX 031636
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1136 AM CDT Thu May 3 2018

.UPDATE...
Just canceled Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70 for Burnet, Llano, and
Williamson counties. Latest mesoanalysis shows the cap should hold
through the end of the watch period, and either prevent, or only
allow short-lived, weak cells to develop.

[Haris]

Feeling frustrated. Meanwhile in these parts, we'll be lucky to get a drop of rain, I guess, today. I don't prefer the severe storms, but are we even going to get a half inch out of this whole event? The cap is either your best friend, or worst enemy. And so the saga continues...

463
FXUS64 KEWX 031636
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1136 AM CDT Thu May 3 2018

.UPDATE...
Just canceled Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70 for Burnet, Llano, and
Williamson counties. Latest mesoanalysis shows the cap should hold
through the end of the watch period, and either prevent, or only
allow short-lived, weak cells to develop.

Friday will serve 2-5” of rain . . Axis of heavy rain includes most of the metro now

[Haris]

PWATS and moisture is very high for CTX with a slow moving front . If we can take advantage of the little cape tom like NWS AFD mentioned , isolated spots up 6” possible ! Like the gfs !

Flash flood SLIGHT risk from WPC!

And no cap of course

[Cpv17]

PWATS and moisture is very high for CTX with a slow moving front . If we can take advantage of the little cape tom like NWS AFD mentioned , isolated spots up 6” possible ! Like the gfs !

Flash flood SLIGHT risk from WPC!

And no cap of course

I’ll be lucky to get half an inch where I am lol

[JDawg512]

The problem is the period of time the rain falls. 2-5 inches over one night is not ideal for long-term relief from the overall dry conditions. Some areas have not seen much rain since the year began. If say 5 inches did fall over the bullseye in that model, a lot of that rainfall will just wash away without having a chance to really soak in.

That's why I said over a week ago, we need to see more of a steady extended period and unfortunately as I suspected and what I warned about is occuring. This is not looking to be a stormy wet May. After this event, there is no rain through next weekend. I warned that these dry periods once they take hold do not go away very quickly. The Dry Miser is strong this year and I have been unable to fix my rain machine since it broke down several months back. (waiting for a hard to get import part that is currently not in stock...)

Before you know it our resident Heat Miser will come along and crank up the heat to bake the dry ground even more..

[Cpv17]

The problem is the period of time the rain falls. 2-5 inches over one night is not ideal for long-term relief from the overall dry conditions. Some areas have not seen much rain since the year began. If say 5 inches did fall over the bullseye in that model, a lot of that rainfall will just wash away without having a chance to really soak in.

That's why I said over a week ago, we need to see more of a steady extended period and unfortunately as I suspected and what I warned about is occuring. This is not looking to be a stormy wet May. After this event, there is no rain through next weekend. I warned that these dry periods once they take hold do not go away very quickly. The Dry Miser is strong this year and I have been unable to fix my rain machine since it broke down several months back.

Before you know it our resident Heat Miser will come along and crank up the heat to bake the dry ground even more..

I wonder what the CPC saw when they issued their May forecast then? Surely they didn’t make that forecast for TX just off this one event.

[Haris]

The problem is the period of time the rain falls. 2-5 inches over one night is not ideal for long-term relief from the overall dry conditions. Some areas have not seen much rain since the year began. If say 5 inches did fall over the bullseye in that model, a lot of that rainfall will just wash away without having a chance to really soak in.

That's why I said over a week ago, we need to see more of a steady extended period and unfortunately as I suspected and what I warned about is occuring. This is not looking to be a stormy wet May. After this event, there is no rain through next weekend. I warned that these dry periods once they take hold do not go away very quickly. The Dry Miser is strong this year and I have been unable to fix my rain machine since it broke down several months back.

Before you know it our resident Heat Miser will come along and crank up the heat to bake the dry ground even more..

I wonder what the CPC saw when they issued their May forecast then? Surely they didn’t make that forecast for TX just off this one event.

They did I think . Cuz at least for the next 2 weeks, NOTHING

[Haris]

The problem is the period of time the rain falls. 2-5 inches over one night is not ideal for long-term relief from the overall dry conditions. Some areas have not seen much rain since the year began. If say 5 inches did fall over the bullseye in that model, a lot of that rainfall will just wash away without having a chance to really soak in.

That's why I said over a week ago, we need to see more of a steady extended period and unfortunately as I suspected and what I warned about is occuring. This is not looking to be a stormy wet May. After this event, there is no rain through next weekend. I warned that these dry periods once they take hold do not go away very quickly. The Dry Miser is strong this year and I have been unable to fix my rain machine since it broke down several months back. (waiting for a hard to get import part that is currently not in stock...)

Before you know it our resident Heat Miser will come along and crank up the heat to bake the dry ground even more..

You have a very valid point. It’s basicslly a good heavy rain event and then dryness for 40 days . It’s annoying as heck

[weatherdude1108]

The problem is the period of time the rain falls. 2-5 inches over one night is not ideal for long-term relief from the overall dry conditions. Some areas have not seen much rain since the year began. If say 5 inches did fall over the bullseye in that model, a lot of that rainfall will just wash away without having a chance to really soak in.

That's why I said over a week ago, we need to see more of a steady extended period and unfortunately as I suspected and what I warned about is occuring. This is not looking to be a stormy wet May. After this event, there is no rain through next weekend. I warned that these dry periods once they take hold do not go away very quickly. The Dry Miser is strong this year and I have been unable to fix my rain machine since it broke down several months back. (waiting for a hard to get import part that is currently not in stock...)

Before you know it our resident Heat Miser will come along and crank up the heat to bake the dry ground even more..

You have a very valid point. It’s basicslly a good heavy rain event and then dryness for 40 days . It’s annoying as heck

Yeah, I think February was the last time the rain was fairly spread out throughout the month. Otherwise, it is nothing for several weeks, then 5 inches overnight.

Of course, the Austin/San Antonio area is known for being in Flash Flood Alley. Many droughts have ended with floods here. I pulled data from the climate information for Camp Mabry. March was also wet, but we got over three inches in one day that month.

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=ewx

[Haris]

The problem is the period of time the rain falls. 2-5 inches over one night is not ideal for long-term relief from the overall dry conditions. Some areas have not seen much rain since the year began. If say 5 inches did fall over the bullseye in that model, a lot of that rainfall will just wash away without having a chance to really soak in.

That's why I said over a week ago, we need to see more of a steady extended period and unfortunately as I suspected and what I warned about is occuring. This is not looking to be a stormy wet May. After this event, there is no rain through next weekend. I warned that these dry periods once they take hold do not go away very quickly. The Dry Miser is strong this year and I have been unable to fix my rain machine since it broke down several months back. (waiting for a hard to get import part that is currently not in stock...)

Before you know it our resident Heat Miser will come along and crank up the heat to bake the dry ground even more..

You have a very valid point. It’s basicslly a good heavy rain event and then dryness for 40 days . It’s annoying as heck

Yeah, I think February was the last time the rain was fairly spread out throughout the month. Otherwise, it is nothing for several weeks, then 5 inches overnight.

Of course, the Austin/San Antonio area is known for being in Flash Flood Alley. Many droughts have ended with floods here. I pulled data from the climate information for Camp Mabry. March was also wet, but we got over three inches in one day that month.

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=ewx

Euro coming in with 5” . Drought will end for 2 weeks probably now and come back again soon LOLOL

[JDawg512]

EWX looks to be settling on 1-2 inches with some spots receiving 4. Risk of torrential rain looks like it's on the decrease as well which is actually a good thing. Having steady moderate to occasionally heavier amounts will be better. Ideally would be great to start out with a couple of hours of light to moderate to loosen the top layers so the water will soak down with heavier rain rather than wash away.

[weatherdude1108]

EWX looks to be settling on 1-2 inches with some spots receiving 4. Risk of torrential rain looks like it's on the decrease as well which is actually a good thing. Having steady moderate to occasionally heavier amounts will be better. Ideally would be great to start out with a couple of hours of light to moderate to loosen the top layers so the water will soak down with heavier rain rather than wash away.

Yeah, our local KXAN Jim Spencer put out this graphic about 30 minutes ago (from this post). That would be a decent soaking. After this, I don't see anything rain-wise in the GFS model for this area, going out to May 19th.

[downsouthman1]

I think the axis will be further south and east than depicted by models.

[Haris]

60% CHANCE WATCH AUSTIN !!!

[bubba hotep]

[Haris]

SWTX radar!

[downsouthman1]

SWTX radar!

Not impressed.

[downsouthman1]

The stuff west of San Antonio has become a weak MCV.

[weatherdude1108]

Had a lone cell come through here around 4:30 this morning, with lightning, thunder, and heavy rain. Got a quarter inch from it. More on the radar!

[TeamLemke]

Nothing better than waking up to a radar full of storms. Let's hope we all get some significant precipitation.