Texas Spring 2018

[rwfromkansas]

Ugh. I won’t be surprised if I get no rain at this rate. Another drought-buster cancel for those who need it (good shape here still). Even the above normal May graphic is in doubt. Dull severe weather season.

[TheProfessor]

Ugh. I won’t be surprised if I get no rain at this rate. Another drought-buster cancel for those who need it. Even the above normal May graphic is in doubt. Dull severe weather season.

Lack or rain is bad. Dull severe weather season is good. I get wanting to see explosive storms, I do to, but only when they're over empty land. Big time severe weather seasons might seem cool from far away, but when events like those of 2008,2011,2013 hit close to home it becomes totally different. I'm sure those in Rockwall that got hit in 2015 would tell you that they don't want to see another tornado in their life. As weather nuts we become so awed at the weather we always want to see the big storms, I do it to before I bite my tongue. DFW is the last place I want to a classic or HP(even worse) supercell.

Sorry for the rant, but anyways severe weather season isn't over yet and it only takes a bad tornado or two to make it a bad one(like 2013). Anyways a lot of Metroplexers could use a break from the severe weather after the past few years of monster hail and the post Christmas tornado. Same goes for the U.S after 2008,2011,2013.

[rwfromkansas]

Last year was definitely active. I get not wanting big severe weather directly here. No hail claims please on my new home.

[Brent]

I don't really care about severe weather having seen the softball sized hail and stuff, but the rain would be nice... models went from a multi day heavy rain event a few days ago to maybe if we're lucky it rains for an hour.

Friday might actually end up wetter than Thursday if the front isn't too far south

[TheProfessor]

The HRRR is definitely interesting and it could definitely mess up my flight. looks like there might be a window between 15-18z where the hodograph is fairly good when it comes to tornadoes and there's some decent CAPE. The HRRR has some individual cells pop up, but then they weaken(could be detecting some vbv). Anyways I'm not liking it since my parents will have to drive 30 minutes to get me at Lovefield.

[TheProfessor]

Lol and now I'm hoping that storm to the west doesn't take a right turn.

[TheProfessor]

VBV is definitely visible on the RAP, which would shear out the storms.

[bubba hotep]

[weatherdude1108]

We have not received ANY measureable rain this week. They are still saying 1-3 inches before it all ends Saturday. Originally we were supposed to get that over a week's time.

Now it looks like we'll get it in one or two downpours. Not ideal for the soil, but would sufficiently wash away the crud on the roads temporarily, and top off my rain barrel.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Picked up 2.25” from yesterday evening through this morning.

[Ntxw]

Looks like a big line cutting across Texas between now and noon

[Haris]

Convective bulls eye on gfs for Austin

[bubba hotep]

The 06z 3k NAM has 2-4" across DFW after several dry runs yesterday. At least one run will be correct!

[dhweather]

I'm cautiously optimistic we might see some rain today.

[bubba hotep]

This line is charging along and the 12z FWD shows a pretty favorable environment out in front. Skies clear quickly behind the line and that could setup another round of storms later off the dryline. Something to keep an eye on late this afternoon.

[rwfromkansas]

Well, glad I am wrong in my wailing last night. It will be pouring for sure here unless the line breaks up, and things ahead probably will not let that happen.

Luckily it won't be too severe when it comes through. I hope it coming through this morning and clearing by noon (probably my area by 11) will allow things to re-charge for some more rain tonight.

[rwfromkansas]

This is probably a dumb question, but I'm curious. Does a storm coming through early (without lowering the temps at the surface too much and scouring out too much moisture) help destroy the cap for later in the day? I would think the rain would cool the warm air aloft even further to help keep that cap weak. This all assumes it's early, it doesn't cool down too much at the ground level, and it warms up after with clear skies.

[dhweather]

This is probably a dumb question, but I'm curious. Does a storm coming through early (without lowering the temps at the surface too much and scouring out too much moisture) help destroy the cap for later in the day? I would think the rain would cool the warm air aloft even further to help keep that cap weak. This all assumes it's early, it doesn't cool down too much at the ground level, and it warms up after with clear skies.

Not a dumb question. The cap is already largely eroded. Given that, any remnants will be gone after the line passes through.

Then the question becomes how much can the atmosphere destabilize before the dry line initiates later this afternoon.

[Brent]

Well this rain is a nice surprise after the way things looked last night

[bubba hotep]

HRRR looks really good for another batch of storms to move in early tomorrow.