Texas Spring 2018

[bubba hotep]

Storms a little closer today, if I wasn't so busy at work then I would probably setup in Roosevelt, Ok with the plan of moving up or down 183 to play the dryline bulge.

For DFW, it still looks like an uncertain forecast with potentially multiple rounds of storms. A lot depends on how storms out west organize and how long they can maintain on the march east.

[TheProfessor]

Crossing my fingers for no storms between 12 and 2 in Dallas tomorrow, I don't want it to effect my flight lol.

[Brent]

Crossing my fingers for no storms between 12 and 2 in Dallas tomorrow, I don't want it to effect my flight lol.

looking at the hi res models since last night that could be interesting

But how far east do they get seems to be the big question mark

[bubba hotep]

Storms a little closer today, if I wasn't so busy at work then I would probably setup in Roosevelt, Ok with the plan of moving up or down 183 to play the dryline bulge.

For DFW, it still looks like an uncertain forecast with potentially multiple rounds of storms. A lot depends on how storms out west organize and how long they can maintain on the march east.

I may not have needed to even leave Roosevelt lol

[Brent]

what happened to the models? No 18z NAM, HRRR stopped updating at 16z, picked a great day for this...

Looks like somebody overloaded the servers, HRRR now running

21z HRRR has a line in DFW in the predawn hours

[Haris]

NOT A MODEL! This is my own forecast rain! GFS trended wetter as I expected . Generally 2" metro, 3" hill co

[starsfan65]

what happened to the models? No 18z NAM, HRRR stopped updating at 16z, picked a great day for this...

Looks like somebody overloaded the servers, HRRR now running

21z HRRR has a line in DFW in the predawn hours

What time in the predawn hours?

[bubba hotep]

Still some CAP left in place on the 00z FWD sounding but forcing coming in from the west should lift it at some point tonight. However, if storms come in in the early morning hours then we probably see a weakening line vs. if they come in say before 2:00 am or so.

[bubba hotep]

This 1st rd of storms seems to be taking on more of an eastward component than models have been showing.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Nice noisy, soaking storms up this way. Nothing too severe, aside from just North of the river.

[starsfan65]

This 1st rd of storms seems to be taking on more of an eastward component than models have been showing.

they are moving northeast

[bubba hotep]

This 1st rd of storms seems to be taking on more of an eastward component than models have been showing.

they are moving northeast

But are tracking farther east than models were showing, Jake County was supposed to stay dry until closer to midnight. Then up in OK, storms are already approaching I35, several hours ahead of what models were showing.

[starsfan65]

This 1st rd of storms seems to be taking on more of an eastward component than models have been showing.

they are moving northeast

But are tracking farther east than models were showing, Jake County was supposed to stay dry until closer to midnight. Then up in OK, storms are already approaching I35, several hours ahead of what models were showing.

At what speed?

[cheezyWXguy]

This 1st rd of storms seems to be taking on more of an eastward component than models have been showing.

they are moving northeast

But are tracking farther east than models were showing, Jake County was supposed to stay dry until closer to midnight. Then up in OK, storms are already approaching I35, several hours ahead of what models were showing.

Agreed, but I don’t know how much difference it will make. The outflow boundary is racing out ahead of the storms, and they’re already showing signs of weakening.

That doesn’t mean new ones won’t form on the boundary later though

[bubba hotep]

they are moving northeast

But are tracking farther east than models were showing, Jake County was supposed to stay dry until closer to midnight. Then up in OK, storms are already approaching I35, several hours ahead of what models were showing.

Agreed, but I don’t know how much difference it will make. The outflow boundary is racing out ahead of the storms, and they’re already showing signs of weakening.

That doesn’t mean new ones won’t form on the boundary later though

Was just coming to post that they dumped a massive outflow. That could set off additional storms, it could focus storms later that come in from the west, or it could slide through DFW and leave us stabilized and mostly rain free. I would think that the strong southerly flow with increasing LLJ would work to keep the outflow at bay.

[cheezyWXguy]

But are tracking farther east than models were showing, Jake County was supposed to stay dry until closer to midnight. Then up in OK, storms are already approaching I35, several hours ahead of what models were showing.

Agreed, but I don’t know how much difference it will make. The outflow boundary is racing out ahead of the storms, and they’re already showing signs of weakening.

That doesn’t mean new ones won’t form on the boundary later though

Was just coming to post that they dumped a massive outflow. That could set off additional storms, it could focus storms later that come in from the west, or it could slide through DFW and leave us stabilized and mostly rain free. I would think that the strong southerly flow with increasing LLJ would work to keep the outflow at bay.

The LLJ is definitely noticeable, winds are howling outside right now from the S/SSE. However, I think the decreasing lift and instability with eastward progression of the line has been enough to overcome it.

[bubba hotep]

The storms that could make it into DFW are starting to fire in W. Texas

[Brent]

NAM doesn't even really rain in Dallas at all in the morning.. is a dying line to the south and north in OK

HRRR has the northern side of a line(more an MCS) moving through the metro around 5-7am

[bubba hotep]

NAM doesn't even really rain in Dallas at all in the morning.. is a dying line to the south and north in OK

HRRR has the northern side of a line(more an MCS) moving through the metro around 5-7am

The last few runs of the 3k NAM have been pretty dry for DFW. That was after several runs just blasting DFW. I hope we score b/c the next week looks pretty blah.

[starsfan65]

NAM doesn't even really rain in Dallas at all in the morning.. is a dying line to the south and north in OK

HRRR has the northern side of a line(more an MCS) moving through the metro around 5-7am

The last few runs of the 3k NAM have been pretty dry for DFW. That was after several runs just blasting DFW. I hope we score b/c the next week looks pretty blah.

no rain in the morning?