Texas Spring 2018

[Brent]

Welcome back winter

Dreary windy and cold it was the winter in DFW

Mckinney has a wind chill again!

[bubba hotep]

Timing of the front on Tuesday will be key driver for storms east of I35, too fast and nothing but a wind shift but too slow and it could get nasty.

[Ntxw]

Another potent April front end of this week. GFS has snow and ice in Oklahoma

[Yukon Cornelius]

Made it down to 38 this morning with light drizzle. Looks like a possible freeze Wed morning. The low is forecasted for 33 as of now, but out where I live its usually 3-5 degrees colder than what is being forecasted. Thankfully the garden remains unplanted.

[gpsnowman]

Another potent April front end of this week. GFS has snow and ice in Oklahoma

Good. Because I am really enjoying the low 40's this morning. Feels great outside.

[northjaxpro]

Another potent April front end of this week. GFS has snow and ice in Oklahoma

Indeed. I posted a couple of days ago. that some of you may need to think about dusting off the Winter Weather Thread, especially Northern Texans.

Cold front. late this week will move through North Texas early Friday. Also, that same potent shortwave disturbance forecast by GFS on Friday to bring snow and ice moving through Oklahoma on Friday will move east and cause potential wintry weather for parts of the Deep South and into the Carolinas this weekend.

So much for spring.... We still are having a -NAO, and have been since the beginning of March. It sure looks as if much of the current pattern will continue well into this month.

[Ntxw]

Another potent April front end of this week. GFS has snow and ice in Oklahoma

Indeed. I posted a couple of days ago. that some of you may need to think about dusting off the Winter Weather Thread, especially Northern Texans.

Cold front will move through North Texas,early Friday. Also, that ame potent shortwave disturbance forecast by GFS on Friday to bring snow and ice moving through Oklahoma on Friday will move east and cause potential wintry weather for parts of the Deep South and into the Carolinas this weekend.

So much for spring.... We still are having a -NAO, and have been since the beginning of March. It sure looks as if much of the current pattern e will continue into this month.

Indeed. The south central plains have not seen much cool air from the -NAO. Much of the region was abnormally warm and the cold air have been focused on the east and west coast while a top 10 warm March was in progress for some in Texas and Oklahoma.

April so far has been a different story as the MJO is in the more Nino like phases which is usually chilly in the fourth month of the year for us

[Portastorm]

It may be cool today but the month of March for Austin was generally much warmer than normal and wetter than normal. The two reporting stations averaged about 5-6 degrees above the normal mean temperature for the month. Precip-wise, the airport was about 3 1/2" above normal and Camp Mabry was about an inch above normal.

[Ralph's Weather]

Frost or maybe a freeze likely Wed morning north of I-20 and maybe again Thu morning for NE TX. 06Z GFS looks interesting if you want to see some frozen precip for N & NE TX especially near the Red River Friday night into Saturday morning. Our awaited cold spell (Spring version) is here.

[Brent]

It may be cool today but the month of March for Austin was generally much warmer than normal and wetter than normal. The two reporting stations averaged about 5-6 degrees above the normal mean temperature for the month. Precip-wise, the airport was about 3 1/2" above normal and Camp Mabry was about an inch above normal.

Same up here, 10th warmest March and now its all cold

[wxman57]

Nearly 80 here in Houston as of 11:30am. Comfortably warm. You guys can keep the cold air up there in NE TX. I'll be heading to S. Padre tomorrow morning to escape the cold (and attend NTWC there).

[JDawg512]

It may be cool today but the month of March for Austin was generally much warmer than normal and wetter than normal. The two reporting stations averaged about 5-6 degrees above the normal mean temperature for the month. Precip-wise, the airport was about 3 1/2" above normal and Camp Mabry was about an inch above normal.

Of course most of that fell in one night while the majority of March was dry. Would be nice if April had more evenly distributed rainfall.

[TheProfessor]

lol we had snow here last night and tomorrow there's an Enhanced risk for severe weather for Columbus and southwestward. Kind of caught me off guard actually, I'm excited for it to finally be warm though.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Freeze Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Norman OK
407 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

OKZ004>030-033>041-044>046-TXZ083-085-086-090-040000-
/O.UPG.KOUN.FZ.A.0001.180404T0500Z-180404T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.FZ.W.0002.180404T0500Z-180404T1500Z/
/O.CON.KOUN.WI.Y.0009.180403T1100Z-180404T0000Z/
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-Tillman-
Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Cotton-Jefferson-Carter-Hardeman-
Wilbarger-Wichita-Clay-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Laverne, Alva, Cherokee, Helena,
Carmen, Medford, Pond Creek, Lamont, Wakita, Ponca City,
Blackwell, Shattuck, Arnett, Gage, Fargo, Woodward, Fairview,
Enid, Perry, Cheyenne, Hammon, Seiling, Vici, Taloga, Leedey,
Weatherford, Clinton, Watonga, Geary, Okeene, Kingfisher,
Hennessey, Okarche, Guthrie, Stillwater, Elk City, Sayre,
Cordell, Burns Flat, Sentinel, Anadarko, Hinton, Yukon, Concho,
El Reno, Mustang, Oklahoma City, Chandler, Stroud, Prague,
Meeker, Davenport, Wellston, Chickasha, Tuttle, Purcell,
Newcastle, Blanchard, Norman, Moore, Shawnee, Hollis, Mangum,
Granite, Hobart, Snyder, Altus, Frederick, Lawton, Duncan,
Pauls Valley, Lindsay, Wynnewood, Sulphur, Davis, Walters,
Temple, Waurika, Ringling, Ryan, Ardmore, Quanah, Vernon,
Sheppard AFB, Wichita Falls, and Henrietta
407 AM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a Freeze
Warning, which is in effect from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT
Wednesday.

* TIMING...Windy conditions Tuesday morning through early
Tuesday evening. Freezing temperatures Tuesday night through
Wednesday morning.

* WINDS...Northerly winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

* TEMPERATURES...Wednesday morning lows 20 to 27 degrees across
northern Oklahoma, and 27 to 32 degrees across much of southern
Oklahoma and portions of north Texas.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may cause difficult travel, especially
for high profile vehicles. Freezing temperatures may damage
sensitive vegetation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

[bubba hotep]

Both the HRRR and 3k NAM are firing storms across DFW as the front moves through today. Looks like there will be some big CAPE in place with EHI around 2.

[gboudx]

Both the HRRR and 3k NAM are firing storms across DFW as the front moves through today. Looks like there will be some big CAPE in place with EHI around 2.

What's the timing? My youngest son has a soccer game tonight in northern Plano. It would be a shame for it to be cancelled.

[bubba hotep]

Both the HRRR and 3k NAM are firing storms across DFW as the front moves through today. Looks like there will be some big CAPE in place with EHI around 2.

What's the timing? My youngest son has a soccer game tonight in northern Plano. It would be a shame for it to be cancelled.

Looks like early afternoon buy keep tabs with what FWD says in any updates today.

[bubba hotep]

Mesoscale Discussion 0204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0949 AM CDT Tue Apr 03 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 031449Z - 031645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will increase in coverage
across central/eastern Texas by mid afternoon. Large hail (some over
two inches in diameter) and damaging winds will be the main threat.
A tornado or two could develop as well, primarily across eastern
Texas. Watch issuance is likely, but timing of issuance may range
from late morning to mid afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar data show initial mid-level
convective development across parts of the northern Texas Hill
Country. This evolution is likely aided by ascent ahead of a very
apparent shortwave trough lifting northeast across Mexico currently.
12Z DRT/FWD observed soundings sampled an impressive elevated mixed
layer, characterized by 700-500mb lapse rates around 9 C/km.
Nonetheless, while this thermal profile is offering the potential
for vigorous updraft accelerations, resultant convective inhibition
offers considerable uncertainty with regards to timing of persistent
deep convection.

Considering the presence of this ample elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE
upwards of 2500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear for updraft
organization, any persistent updrafts will likely possess a threat
for very large hail. Additionally, despite their initially elevated
nature, downdraft momentum will likely be strong enough to produce
pockets of damaging winds. Moreover, through the afternoon, cells
are expected to become rooted closer to the surface, and a threat
for a tornado or two may materialize across east Texas. Despite the
aforementioned conditional/uncertain nature of deep convective
development, greater coverage is expected with the approach of the
cold front and dryline. Therefore, watch issuance is likely.

..Picca/Hart.. 04/03/2018

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

[Brent]

looks like a pretty fast moving thing for DFW

watch is SE of DFW

[Bunkertor]

Gonna watch this after the Football